Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Victoria
Issued at 04:40 PM EDT on Sunday 01 March 2020
for the period until midnight EDT Monday 02 March 2020
Wind Warnings for Sunday 01 March
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Port Phillip, Western Port, West Coast and Central Coast
Wind Warnings for Monday 02 March
Gale Warning for the following areas:
East Gippsland Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Port Phillip, Western Port, Gippsland Lakes, West Coast, Central Coast and Central Gippsland Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 5:10 am EDT Monday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Melbourne (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW14° 18° clearing shower Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:39am EDT 7:06am EDT 7:58pm EDT 8:25pm EDT NOW22.3° Feels Like: 20.5° Relative Humidity: 62% Dew: 14.7° Wind: SW 17km/h Gust: 20km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1005.0hPa -
Today Weather
MelbourneNow23.5°cFeels Like:17.6°Wind:SSW 35km/hGusts:39km/hHumidity:52%14°Min18°MaxToday in MelbourneMostly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, becoming less likely throughout the morning then clearing during the afternoon. Winds NW/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming SW 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then tending S in the morning.Tomorrow14°Min18°MaxEarly morning fog in the outer suburbs. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower at night. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending S/SE 15 to 25 km/h early in the morning. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, becoming less likely throughout the morning then clearing during the afternoon. Winds NW/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming SW 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then tending S in the morning.
Forecast for Melbourne (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 14° 12° 13° 17° 17° 15° 15° Maximum 18° 21° 23° 24° 21° 21° 21° Chance of rain 20% 40% 50% 80% 70% 60% 50% Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 16
(km/h)18
(km/h)8
(km/h)14
(km/h)2
(km/h)7
(km/h)5
(km/h)7
(km/h)9
(km/h)18
(km/h)13
(km/h)18
(km/h)14
(km/h)19
(km/h)Wind direction SW SSW SSE S ENE SE SE WSW SW SSW SSW SSW SSE SSE Relative humidity 72% 56% 72% 57% 84% 72% 88% 76% 88% 74% 82% 71% 80% 60% Dew point 11°C 9°C 10°C 11°C 12°C 17°C 18°C 20°C 17°C 16°C 14°C 15°C 13°C 13°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Melbourne Rain Forecast
Melbourne 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATMar 1
HIGH2
LOW3
4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
HIGH8
LOW9
10
MEDIUM11
LOW12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
22
23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
27
28
29
MEDIUM30
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 1Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 March to 20 March, 26 March to 30 March, and 30 March to 3 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 March to 14 March, and 4 April to 8 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 March to 12 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Melbourne Rain Forecast
Melbourne 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2020202166367452765105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 12
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout January with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 as per December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 1.3 in January. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, cooling even further by mid 2020. Six out of eight international models continue to maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of the year, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, which is what you will expect for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values until the austral winter, with indications we could see another positive event late winter/spring. However, the skill of the models is low at this time of the year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours average-to-below average rainfall for parts of inland NSW and Qld for the end of summer and autumn. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) had its latest onset on record in early February at Darwin (by its technical definition) with the current prognosis suggesting another below average wet season for northern Australia. The northern half of the country however, could see a wet end to the wet season compared to the season thus far. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Melbourne Rain Forecast
Melbourne 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATMar 1
HIGH2
LOW3
4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
HIGH8
LOW9
10
MEDIUM11
LOW12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
22
23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
27
28
29
MEDIUM30
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 1Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 March to 20 March, 26 March to 30 March, and 30 March to 3 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 March to 14 March, and 4 April to 8 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 March to 12 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Melbourne Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Feb 2616.2 °C 19.2 °C 4.0 mmThursday
Feb 2711.0 °C 19.7 °C 0.2 mmFriday
Feb 2813.1 °C 20.1 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Feb 2914.7 °C 22.4 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 0113.2 °C 31 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Melbourne minimum temp history (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month - Coldest this month 13.2° 01/03/2020 Hottest on record 41.7 11/03/1940 Coldest on record 2.8 17/03/1884 Hottest this year 42.9° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year 10.8° 05/02/2020 Long term average 23.9° Long term average 13.2° Average this month - Average this month 13.2° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.9° 1940 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 10.1° 1945 Melbourne rainfall history (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/03/2020 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 50.1mm 9.4 days Wettest March on record 190.7mm 1911 Driest on record 3.7mm 1934 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for VIC
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Year to Date
Melbourne Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 145.2mm 25.1 day(s) Total For 2020 191.4mm 20.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2019 29.8mm 9.0 day(s) Wettest Day 44.0mm Jan21 Lowest Temperature 10.8°C Feb 5 Highest Temperature 42.9°C Jan31 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Melbourne Climatology
Melbourne Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 25.9 25.8 23.9 20.3 16.7 14.1 13.5 15.0 17.2 19.7 22.0 24.2 19.8 Mean Min (°C) 14.3 14.6 13.2 10.8 8.7 6.9 6.0 6.7 8.0 9.5 11.2 12.9 10.2 Mean Rain (mm) 47.1 48.0 50.1 57.3 55.7 49.5 47.5 50.0 58.0 66.0 60.3 59.1 648.3 Mean Rain Days 8.3 7.4 9.4 11.7 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.1 14.9 14.1 11.7 10.4 149.2