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Forecast

Melbourne (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Showers 15°
    Chance of rain: 60%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:41am EST 7:08am EST 5:42pm EST 6:10pm EST
    NOW
    11.3° Feels Like: 10.2°
    Relative Humidity: 73%
    Dew: 6.6°
    Wind: N 2km/h
    Gust: 7km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1012.6hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Melbourne
    Now
    10.2°c
    Feels Like:
    8.5°
    Wind:
    W 7km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    91%
    Showers
     
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Today in Melbourne
    Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Light winds.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers in E parts, grading to a high chance in the W. Showers most likely from the late morning. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Melbourne

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Light winds.

    Forecast for Melbourne (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Showers Showers Showers Showers Showers Showers easing Possible shower
    Minimum 10°
    Maximum 15° 15° 14° 15° 15° 14° 15°
    Chance of rain 60% 80% 80% 70% 90% 70% 90%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 5-10mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 1
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    Wind direction E SSW W W WNW W W SW N N N NNW NNW WNW
    Relative humidity 84% 65% 87% 68% 78% 62% 89% 68% 84% 63% 80% 64% 77% 63%
    Dew point 7°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 7°C 6°C 9°C 8°C 8°C 7°C 8°C 6°C 7°C 7°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Melbourne Rain Forecast


    Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    HIGH
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Melbourne Rain Forecast


    Melbourne 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    2022
    2023
    4
    6
    7
    8
    8
    7
    6
    5
    5
    3
    6
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 2

    ENSO status: Neutral, However, some models suggest La Niña may re-form in spring. IOD status: Negative, all models suggest this event will continue until late spring. SAM status: Neutral, neutral to positive levels are forecast in August The 2021-22 La Nina event has ended according to BOM, however two out of seven models suggest a return of La Nina in late winter, with four in October and five in November. Even though this event officially has ended, a La Nina-like pattern is likely to persist for the remainder of 2022. However, new data released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre continues to point towards the prospect of a third consecutive La Niña later this year. Their predictions give La Niña a 62 percent chance of occurring by early spring and a 65 to 66 percent chance in late spring and early summer.Looking further ahead, the majority of forecast models predict that the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean should break down towards the end of summer, most likely returning to a neutral state early in 2023. The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a negative IOD event is underway to the northwest of Australia. This declaration comes after sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have remained near or exceeded the negative IOD threshold for the last eight weeks. This is now the 2nd consecutive year to be declared a negative IOD year, following a relatively weak event in 2021. This is the first time we have seen two consecutive negative IOD years since reliable records of the IOD began in 1960. Unlike last year’s event, this year’s negative IOD is expected to be strong and last through the remainder of winter and spring. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter and spring rainfall and cloud across parts of southern Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except drier than average conditions are forecast in southwest WA and parts of TAS. During spring much of Australia isforecast to average to above average. Early indications of summer rainfall look average to above average for much of Australia, except TAS which looks drier. The negative IOD could increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia. With two La Niña seasons already in the bag and the prospect of a third La Niña now a looming possibility, this is likely to have a compounding effect that may exacerbate the impacts we normally see in Australia. So, while individual La Niña events usually cause more rain and flooding in northern and eastern Australia, any La Niña-fuelled rainfall this year will be falling onto already saturated ground and into full dams. This makes flooding a heightened risk, especially for areas that just had a wet summer and autumn.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Long range rainfall forecast

    Melbourne Rain Forecast


    Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    HIGH
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  13. Past 5 Days

    Melbourne Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Aug 08
    5.4 °C 13.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Aug 09
    2.6 °C 12.4 °C
    0.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Aug 10
    3.6 °C 14.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Aug 11
    5.4 °C 15.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Aug 12
    10.3 °C 15.3 °C
    1.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Melbourne minimum temp history (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 19.2° 03/08/2022 Coldest this month 2.6° 09/08/2022
    Hottest on record 26.5 29/08/1982 Coldest on record -2.1 11/08/1863
    Hottest this year 37.1° 01/01/2022 Coldest this year 0.8° 20/07/2022
    Long term average 15.0° Long term average 6.8°
    Average this month 15.2° Average this month 7.9°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 17.7° 1982 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 4.0° 1943
    Melbourne rainfall history (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 3.8mm 06/08/2022 Total This Month 9.4mm
    7.0 days
    Long Term Average 50.0mm 16.2 days Wettest August on record 110.8mm 1939
    Driest on record 12.4mm 1903
  15. Year to Date

    Melbourne Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 402.4mm 99.1 day(s)
    Total For 2022 335.4mm 84.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2021 357.8mm 90.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 38.6mm Jan29
    Lowest Temperature 0.8°C Jul20
    Highest Temperature 37.1°C Jan 1
  16. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Melbourne Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.0 25.8 23.9 20.3 16.8 14.1 13.5 15.0 17.3 19.7 22.0 24.2 19.9
    Mean Min (°C) 14.4 14.7 13.3 10.9 8.7 7.0 6.1 6.8 8.1 9.6 11.3 13.0 10.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 47.8 46.6 49.5 57.4 55.4 48.5 47.1 50.0 57.4 65.2 59.9 58.8 643.7
    Mean Rain Days 8.3 7.4 9.4 11.7 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.2 14.8 14.1 11.7 10.3 149.7