Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for Central forecast district
Issued at 10:50 PM EDT on Tuesday 19 March 2024
Warnings for Wednesday 20 March
Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
Central forecast district
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures and southwesterly winds are expected during Wednesday morning. Areas likely to be affected include parts of the Central forecast district. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Wednesday.
Forecast
Melbourne (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW14° 18° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:57am EDT 7:23am EDT 7:31pm EDT 7:57pm EDT NOW19.4° Feels Like: 16.6° Relative Humidity: 64% Dew: 12.4° Wind: SW 19km/h Gust: 32km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.7hPa -
Today Weather
MelbourneNow18.5°cFeels Like:10.8°Wind:SW 44km/hGusts:50km/hHumidity:71%14°Min18°MaxToday in MelbournePartly cloudy. High chance of showers about the Dandenongs, medium chance elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h turning S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.Tomorrow14°Min18°MaxMostly sunny. Winds SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers about the Dandenongs, medium chance elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h turning S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.
Forecast for Melbourne (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 14° 11° 10° 13° 12° 12° 14° Maximum 18° 21° 22° 21° 22° 25° 19° Chance of rain 20% 5% 20% 30% 10% 50% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate High High High High High High Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 19
(km/h)23
(km/h)4
(km/h)12
(km/h)3
(km/h)13
(km/h)5
(km/h)16
(km/h)9
(km/h)14
(km/h)9
(km/h)16
(km/h)11
(km/h)17
(km/h)Wind direction WSW SW ESE SSW N SSW S SSW W WSW NW WSW WSW SSW Relative humidity 56% 45% 58% 45% 74% 47% 74% 56% 67% 48% 69% 44% 69% 50% Dew point 7°C 5°C 6°C 8°C 9°C 9°C 11°C 11°C 9°C 9°C 10°C 10°C 10°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Melbourne Rain Forecast
Melbourne 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Melbourne Rain Forecast
Melbourne 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025553654756677105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Melbourne Rain Forecast
Melbourne 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Melbourne Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1515.7 °C 27.8 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1614.4 °C 29.6 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1717.1 °C 30.2 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1816.3 °C 31.9 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1919.7 °C 28.6 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Melbourne minimum temp history (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 37.6° 09/03/2024 Coldest this month 11.8° 05/03/2024 Hottest on record 41.7 11/03/1940 Coldest on record 2.8 17/03/1884 Hottest this year 37.6° 09/03/2024 Coldest this year 11.7° 25/02/2024 Long term average 23.9° Long term average 13.3° Average this month 27.3° Average this month 16.4° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.9° 1940 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 10.1° 1945 Melbourne rainfall history (37.8143°S, 144.9632°E, 8m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 1.2mm 13/03/2024 Total This Month 1.6mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 49.5mm 9.4 days Wettest March on record 190.7mm 1911 Driest on record 3.7mm 1934 -
Year to Date
Melbourne Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 144.0mm 25.1 day(s) Total For 2024 116.6mm 17.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 57.2mm 21.0 day(s) Wettest Day 37.8mm Jan 8 Lowest Temperature 11.7°C Feb25 Highest Temperature 37.6°C Mar 9 -
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Australia Radars
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Melbourne Climatology
Melbourne Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.0 25.8 23.9 20.3 16.8 14.1 13.5 15.0 17.3 19.7 22.0 24.2 19.9 Mean Min (°C) 14.5 14.7 13.3 10.9 8.7 7.0 6.1 6.8 8.1 9.6 11.3 13.0 10.3 Mean Rain (mm) 48.0 46.5 49.5 57.7 55.5 48.6 47.0 49.9 57.1 65.8 59.9 58.7 643.6 Mean Rain Days 8.3 7.4 9.4 11.7 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.1 14.7 14.1 11.8 10.3 149.7