Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in parts of Central, East Gippsland, South West, North Central, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
Issued at 5:01 pm Sunday, 18 August 2019.
Strong northerly winds ahead of a squally southwesterly change tonight.
Weather Situation: A strong cold front over western Victoria will move over central districts tonight before crossing eastern Victoria early on Monday.
DAMAGING NORTHERLY WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h, are expected about elevated parts (above 600 metres) of the eastern ranges until around midnight. Blizzards are possible about the Alpine region tonight.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 90 to 100 km/h are possible about the Grampians, Surf Coast, Mornington Peninsula and the Bass Coast with the passage of a squally SOUTHWESTERLY change, which is forecast to move through the central coast between 8pm and midnight tonight.
While gusty winds are expected to continue into Monday the risk of damaging winds will cease early on Monday morning.
Locations which may be affected include the Grampians, the Mornington Peninsula, Mt Baw Baw, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Falls Creek.
The highest wind gusts recorded to 4.30pm today:
- 100 km/h at Mt Hotham at 1.12pm
- 91 km/h at Mt Buller at 11.34am
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Sunday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Ben Nevis (37.3251°S, 142.9613°E, 289m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
6° 12° possible shower Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:42am EST 7:09am EST 5:55pm EST 6:22pm EST NOW8.0° Feels Like: 2.0° Relative Humidity: 75% Dew: 3.8° Wind: W 24km/h Gust: W 24km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.8mm Pressure: 1006.2hPa -
Today Weather
Ben NevisNow8.2°cFeels Like:-0.1°Wind:WNW 37km/hGusts:57km/hHumidity:82%
6°Min12°MaxToday in Ben NevisCloudy. Very high chance of showers. Snow falling above 900 metres later this afternoon, lowering to 500 metres tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm from late this morning. Gusty winds and small hail possible from late morning. Winds N 25 to 35 km/h shifting W/SW in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures around 12.Tomorrow
1°Min10°MaxPartly cloudy. Very high chance of showers in the south grading to a medium chance in the north. Snow level around 400 metres in the early morning, increasing above 1200 metres during the day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the south in the early morning. Possible small hail in the morning. Winds W 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 12. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. Snow falling above 900 metres later this afternoon, lowering to 500 metres tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm from late this morning. Gusty winds and small hail possible from late morning. Winds N 25 to 35 km/h shifting W/SW in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures around 12.
Forecast for Ben Nevis (37.3251°S, 142.9613°E, 289m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary 
Minimum 6° 1° 5° 8° 7° 2° 5° Maximum 12° 10° 13° 13° 12° 13° 15° Chance of rain 90% 60% 80% 70% 30% 20% 70% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - Frost risk Nil High Slight Nil Nil Moderate Slight 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 20
(km/h)26
(km/h)20
(km/h)22
(km/h)20
(km/h)25
(km/h)25
(km/h)28
(km/h)26
(km/h)22
(km/h)6
(km/h)16
(km/h)19
(km/h)20
(km/h)Wind direction N NW WSW WSW WNW WNW WSW WSW SW SW N N N NNW Relative humidity 72% 81% 81% 69% 88% 81% 89% 70% 82% 67% 85% 68% 76% 63% Dew point 7°C 7°C 2°C 5°C 8°C 10°C 8°C 8°C 6°C 6°C 4°C 7°C 5°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ben Nevis Rain Forecast
Ben Nevis 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT18
HIGH19
MEDIUM20
HIGH21
MEDIUM22
23
24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
HIGH27
HIGH28
HIGH29
HIGH30
HIGH31
HIGHSep 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
6
7
8
9
LOW10
HIGH11
LOW12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug18Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 August to 30 August, 10 September to 14 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 August to 20 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 August to 29 August, 11 September to 15 September, and 15 September to 19 September.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ben Nevis Rain Forecast
Ben Nevis 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20192020765466665485105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SST's) continued a cooling trend over the central Pacific during July. The Nino3.4 index lingered at about 0.5 through the month of July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 in July, which is now in neutral territory. Current consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will remain across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Although, six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the remainder of 2019, none of these are reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. Moreover, the IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 50% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive. Six out of six international models maintain a positive event until mid-spring. The climate outlook for the four weeks left in winter and spring, favours average-to-below average rainfall across the southern half of Australia, in particular over the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during the end of winter and the first half of spring due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. SST's along the eastern seaboard remain significantly warmer than average (especially off NSW) maintaining a high risk of extreme weather events such as East Coast Lows (ECLs). These can bring intense periods of rainfall east of the Great Dividing Range, leading to flash flooding.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ben Nevis Rain Forecast
Ben Nevis 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT18
HIGH19
MEDIUM20
HIGH21
MEDIUM22
23
24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
HIGH27
HIGH28
HIGH29
HIGH30
HIGH31
HIGHSep 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
6
7
8
9
LOW10
HIGH11
LOW12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug18Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 August to 30 August, 10 September to 14 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 August to 20 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 August to 29 August, 11 September to 15 September, and 15 September to 19 September.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ben Nevis Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Aug 142.7 °C 10.7 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Aug 155.2 °C 15.7 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Aug 167.0 °C 14.0 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Aug 17-1.0 °C 14.3 °C 2.4 mmSunday
Aug 186.5 °C 11 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ben Nevis minimum temp history (37.3251°S, 142.9613°E, 289m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 15.7° 15/08/2019 Coldest this month -1.0° 17/08/2019 Hottest on record 24.5 29/08/1982 Coldest on record -6.2 05/08/1997 Hottest this year 42.0° 04/01/2019 Coldest this year -4.8° 24/06/2019 Long term average 13.0° Long term average 3.9° Average this month 11.9° Average this month 4.6° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 15.9° 1982 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 1.3° 1994 Ben Nevis rainfall history (37.3251°S, 142.9613°E, 289m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 21.0mm 09/08/2019 Total This Month 65.2mm
7.0 daysLong Term Average 68.1mm 18.1 days Wettest August on record 152.0mm 1982 -
Popup - Radar
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Year to Date
Ben Nevis Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 384.6mm 99.6 day(s) Total For 2019 409.6mm 62.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 312.8mm 68.0 day(s) Wettest Day 39.0mm May10 Lowest Temperature -4.8°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 42.0°C Jan 4 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Ben Nevis Climatology
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.0 27.1 24.0 19.6 15.5 12.4 11.8 13.0 15.2 18.3 21.6 24.7 19.1 Mean Min (°C) 11.3 11.4 9.6 7.3 5.6 3.9 3.4 3.9 5.1 6.1 7.8 9.4 7.0 Mean Rain (mm) 39.9 31.9 30.1 42.0 54.0 55.3 63.3 68.1 61.8 55.8 44.3 37.7 584.2 Mean Rain Days 7.1 5.4 8.2 10.6 13.8 17.3 19.1 18.1 15.4 12.7 10.4 8.4 143.8
