Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Tasmania
Minor Flood Warning For The River Derwent
Issued at 10:58 AM EDT on Sunday 08 December 2019
Flood Watch Number: 4
Minor flooding is continuing in the lower River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam and is expected to peak on Sunday afternoon. Flooding is not expected to extend downstream to Macquarie Plains and New Norfolk. River levels have eased along the Styx River.
In the 24 hours to 9 am Sunday, rainfall totals between 15-21 mm were observed in the elevated, western areas of the River Derwent catchment, with less than 5 mm recorded elsewhere. No further significant rainfall is forecast for the remainder of Sunday.
River levels remain elevated in the upper Derwent, Florentine, Tyenna, Styx and Plenty Rivers.
Strong and dangerous flows will be a hazard over the next couple of days.
River Derwent above River Ouse:
River levels in the upper River Derwent and its tributaries will remain elevated during Sunday.
River Derwent above Meadowbank Dam:
River levels in the middle reaches of the River Derwent will remain elevated during Sunday.
Tyenna River:
River levels in the Tyenna River will remain elevated during Sunday.
Styx River:
River levels are easing along the Styx River. The Styx River at Bruces Bridge peaked at 2.1 m at around 4:30 pm on Saturday (minor flood level is 2.0 m) and is currently at 1.4 m and falling.
River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam:
Minor flooding is expected to continue along the River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam during Sunday.
The River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam is currently at 4.10 metres and rising.
The River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam is expected to remain above or around the minor flood level (4.10 m) during Sunday and is likely to peak between 4.30 and 4.60 metres during Sunday afternoon.
The River Derwent at Macquarie Plains is currently at 2.98 metres and steady.
The River Derwent at Macquarie Plains is expected to remain below the minor flood level (4.00 m) during Sunday.
River Derwent around New Norfolk:
Flooding is not expected along the River Derwent around New Norfolk.
The River Derwent at New Norfolk will remain below the minor flood level (2.00 m) during Sunday.
Flood Safety Advice:
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.tas.gov.au
Road closure information is available at www.police.tas.gov.au}
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.
For life threatening situations, call 000 immediately.
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EDT on Monday 09 December 2019.
Latest River Heights:
River Derwent below Lake St Clair,2.42,Steady,09:30 AM SUN 08/12/19
River Ouse at Ashton,0.24,Steady,10:30 AM SUN 08/12/19
River Ouse at 3B Weir,0.59,Steady,10:30 AM SUN 08/12/19
River Clyde at Bothwell,0.08,Steady,09:00 AM SUN 08/12/19
River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam,4.10,Rising,10:45 AM SUN 08/12/19
River Derwent at Macquarie Plains,2.98,Steady,10:06 AM SUN 08/12/19
Tyenna River at Newbury,1.27,Steady,09:00 AM SUN 08/12/19
Styx River at Bruces Bridge,1.40,Falling,10:39 AM SUN 08/12/19
River Derwent at New Norfolk,0.90,Falling,10:43 AM SUN 08/12/19
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts.
Forecast
Ouse (42.4858°S, 146.7134°E, 92m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
10° 31° mostly cloudy Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 4:55am EDT 5:29am EDT 8:41pm EDT 9:16pm EDT NOW14.2° Feels Like: 14.6° Relative Humidity: 82% Dew: 11.2° Wind: N 0km/h Gust: 0km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1016.5hPa -
Today Weather
OuseNow14.4°cFeels Like:13.1°Wind:S 7km/hGusts:11km/hHumidity:77%
10°Min31°MaxToday in OuseHot. Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm with little or no rainfall in the late afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming N/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending W/NW 25 to 35 km/h in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 31.Tomorrow
12°Min20°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the early morning. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 21. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot. Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm with little or no rainfall in the late afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming N/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending W/NW 25 to 35 km/h in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 31.
Forecast for Ouse (42.4858°S, 146.7134°E, 92m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary 
Minimum 10° 12° 7° 11° 8° 9° 9° Maximum 31° 20° 23° 17° 18° 18° 17° Chance of rain 20% 5% 50% 50% 60% 70% 70% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 4
(km/h)14
(km/h)12
(km/h)13
(km/h)3
(km/h)12
(km/h)18
(km/h)21
(km/h)15
(km/h)18
(km/h)17
(km/h)22
(km/h)17
(km/h)23
(km/h)Wind direction N NNW WSW WSW WNW W W WSW W W WNW W W W Relative humidity 53% 32% 59% 43% 59% 44% 62% 50% 59% 52% 67% 58% 63% 50% Dew point 9°C 12°C 5°C 7°C 7°C 10°C 7°C 6°C 5°C 8°C 9°C 10°C 5°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ouse Rain Forecast
Ouse 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
LOW10
LOW11
12
HIGH13
HIGH14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
LOW21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
26
27
28
LOW29
MEDIUM30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
3
LOW4
LOW5
HIGH6
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ouse Rain Forecast
Ouse 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020665545667885105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ouse Rain Forecast
Ouse 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
LOW10
LOW11
12
HIGH13
HIGH14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
LOW21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
26
27
28
LOW29
MEDIUM30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
3
LOW4
LOW5
HIGH6
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ouse Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Dec 043.9 °C 14.1 °C 10.2 mmThursday
Dec 058.9 °C 17.8 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 066.8 °C 13.6 °C 8.4 mmSaturday
Dec 077.9 °C 16.4 °C 6.8 mmSunday
Dec 088.9 °C 22 °C 0.6 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ouse minimum temp history (42.4858°S, 146.7134°E, 92m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 17.8° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 3.4° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 38.0 11/12/1998 Coldest on record 0.0 05/12/2001 Hottest this year 38.1° 04/01/2019 Coldest this year -5.2° 25/06/2019 Long term average 23.1° Long term average 8.7° Average this month 15.2° Average this month 6.6° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.5° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 6.7° 2006 Ouse rainfall history (42.4858°S, 146.7134°E, 92m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 10.2mm 04/12/2019 Total This Month 28.0mm
6.0 daysLong Term Average 33.7mm 10.7 days Wettest December on record 85.8mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for TAS
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Year to Date
Ouse Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 509.8mm 150.5 day(s) Total For 2019 462.4mm 136.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 508.6mm 141.0 day(s) Wettest Day 26.4mm Jul12 Lowest Temperature -5.2°C Jun25 Highest Temperature 38.1°C Jan 4 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Ouse Climatology
Ouse Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 25.4 25.2 22.5 18.4 14.8 11.9 11.7 13.5 15.8 17.8 20.9 23.1 18.4 Mean Min (°C) 10.2 9.9 8.0 4.9 3.7 1.5 1.2 2.0 4.0 5.3 7.2 8.7 5.6 Mean Rain (mm) 30.0 28.3 30.7 30.0 37.6 43.8 51.2 62.9 67.9 55.1 38.6 33.7 510.5 Mean Rain Days 8.5 7.7 9.3 9.8 13.1 14.8 16.7 16.7 15.5 15.6 12.1 10.7 142.4
