Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Tasmania
Final Flood Warning for the River Derwent
Issued at 10:09 am EST on Friday 23 August 2019
Flood Warning Number: 3
The Derwent River below Meadowbank Dam has fallen below the minor flood level.
Downstream river levels at Macquarie Plains and New Norfolk are expected to
remain below the minor flood level.
In the 24 hours to 9 am Friday rainfall totals of 5-16 mm were observed in the
upper Derwent River catchment, with less than 5 mm recorded in the lower
reaches. No significant rainfall is forecast for the remainder of Friday.
Strong and dangerous flows will be a hazard over the next couple of days.
River Derwent above River Ouse:
No further flooding is expected in the River Derwent above River Ouse.
River Derwent above Meadowbank Dam:
No further flooding is expected in the River Derwent above Meadowbank Dam.
Tyenna River:
No further flooding is expected in the Tyenna River.
Styx River:
No further flooding is expected in the Styx River.
River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam:
No further flooding is expected in the River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam.
The River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam is currently at 3.69 metres and steady.
Levels in the River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam remain elevated but are
expected to remain below the minor flood level (4.10 m) during Friday.
The River Derwent at Macquarie Plains is currently at 3.15 metres and steady.
The River Derwent at Macquarie Plains is expected to remain below the minor
flood level (4.00 m) during Friday.
Flood Safety Advice:
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.tas.gov.au
Road closure information is available at www.police.tas.gov.au
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.
For life threatening situations, call 000 immediately.
Next issue:
This is a final warning, no further warnings will be issued for this event.
Latest River Heights:
River Derwent below Lake St Clair, 2.12, Steady, 09:30 AM FRI 23/08/19
River Ouse at Ashton, 1.23, Steady, 09:30 AM FRI 23/08/19
River Ouse at 3B Weir, 0.98, Steady, 09:30 AM FRI 23/08/19
River Clyde at Bothwell, 0.13, Steady, 08:00 AM FRI 23/08/19
River Derwent below Meadowbank Dam, 3.69, Steady, 09:45 AM FRI 23/08/19
River Derwent at Macquarie Plains, 2.68, Steady, 09:51 AM FRI 23/08/19
Tyenna River at Newbury, 0.98, Steady, 08:15 AM FRI 23/08/19
Styx River at Bruces Bridge, 1.20, Rising, 10:04 AM FRI 23/08/19
River Derwent at New Norfolk, 0.75, Steady, 09:21 AM FRI 23/08/19
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and
river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood. The latest weather
forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts.
Forecast
Ouse (42.4858°S, 146.7134°E, 92m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
6° 18° windy with showers Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:25am EST 6:53am EST 5:39pm EST 6:07pm EST NOW8.2° Feels Like: 4.3° Relative Humidity: 73% Dew: 3.7° Wind: NNE 13km/h Gust: NNE 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm Pressure: 1007.1hPa -
Today Weather
OuseNow9.0°cFeels Like:4.6°Wind:NE 15km/hGusts:20km/hHumidity:68%
6°Min18°MaxToday in OusePartly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Snow falling above 600 metres late evening, with possible hail. Winds NW 30 to 45 km/h tending NW/SW in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 17.Tomorrow
1°Min13°MaxCloudy. Medium chance of showers, with possible hail in the early morning. Snow possible above 600 metres. Light winds becoming W/NW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 1 with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 12. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Snow falling above 600 metres late evening, with possible hail. Winds NW 30 to 45 km/h tending NW/SW in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 17.
Forecast for Ouse (42.4858°S, 146.7134°E, 92m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary 
Minimum 6° 1° 4° 6° 5° 2° 2° Maximum 18° 13° 15° 15° 12° 13° 15° Chance of rain 90% 30% 40% 50% 80% 40% 5% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Low Low Low Low Low - - Frost risk Nil Moderate Slight Nil Nil Moderate Moderate 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 18
(km/h)24
(km/h)10
(km/h)18
(km/h)10
(km/h)18
(km/h)17
(km/h)24
(km/h)18
(km/h)22
(km/h)7
(km/h)14
(km/h)2
(km/h)9
(km/h)Wind direction NW NW W W WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW W W WSW NNW W Relative humidity 72% 57% 76% 61% 81% 59% 79% 60% 79% 58% 77% 58% 76% 49% Dew point 6°C 9°C 1°C 5°C 5°C 7°C 5°C 8°C 3°C 4°C 2°C 5°C 2°C 4°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ouse Rain Forecast
Ouse 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT24
HIGH25
LOW26
HIGH27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMSep 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
HIGH4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
MEDIUM9
HIGH10
HIGH11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
MEDIUM17
MEDIUM18
HIGH19
MEDIUM20
MEDIUM21
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug23Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 August to 2 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 September to 11 September, and 21 September to 25 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 August to 3 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 14 September to 18 September.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ouse Rain Forecast
Ouse 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20192020777467741576105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SST's) continued a cooling trend over the central Pacific during July. The Nino3.4 index lingered at about 0.5 through the month of July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 in July, which is now in neutral territory. Current consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will remain across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Although, six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the remainder of 2019, none of these are reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. Moreover, the IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 50% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive. Six out of six international models maintain a positive event until mid-spring. The climate outlook for the four weeks left in winter and spring, favours average-to-below average rainfall across the southern half of Australia, in particular over the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during the end of winter and the first half of spring due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. SST's along the eastern seaboard remain significantly warmer than average (especially off NSW) maintaining a high risk of extreme weather events such as East Coast Lows (ECLs). These can bring intense periods of rainfall east of the Great Dividing Range, leading to flash flooding.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ouse Rain Forecast
Ouse 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT24
HIGH25
LOW26
HIGH27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMSep 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
HIGH4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
MEDIUM9
HIGH10
HIGH11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
MEDIUM17
MEDIUM18
HIGH19
MEDIUM20
MEDIUM21
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug23Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 August to 2 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 September to 11 September, and 21 September to 25 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 August to 3 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 14 September to 18 September.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ouse Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Aug 192.6 °C 11.4 °C 7.2 mmTuesday
Aug 204.0 °C 14.5 °C 6.2 mmWednesday
Aug 215.7 °C 10.2 °C 16.8 mmThursday
Aug 222.9 °C 11.5 °C 13.0 mmFriday
Aug 23-0.6 °C 15 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ouse minimum temp history (42.4858°S, 146.7134°E, 92m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 16.8° 18/08/2019 Coldest this month -4.2° 09/08/2019 Hottest on record 22.5 31/08/2006 Coldest on record -6.7 07/08/2006 Hottest this year 38.1° 04/01/2019 Coldest this year -5.2° 25/06/2019 Long term average 13.5° Long term average 2.0° Average this month 13.0° Average this month 1.4° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 14.7° 2005 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 0.0° 1998 Ouse rainfall history (42.4858°S, 146.7134°E, 92m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 16.8mm 21/08/2019 Total This Month 46.2mm
10.0 daysLong Term Average 62.9mm 16.7 days Wettest August on record 142.8mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
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Year to Date
Ouse Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 314.5mm 96.6 day(s) Total For 2019 337.4mm 86.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 386.0mm 99.0 day(s) Wettest Day 26.4mm Jul12 Lowest Temperature -5.2°C Jun25 Highest Temperature 38.1°C Jan 4 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Ouse Climatology
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 25.4 25.2 22.5 18.4 14.8 11.9 11.7 13.5 15.8 17.8 20.9 23.1 18.4 Mean Min (°C) 10.2 9.9 8.0 4.9 3.7 1.5 1.2 2.0 4.0 5.3 7.2 8.7 5.6 Mean Rain (mm) 30.0 28.3 30.7 30.0 37.6 43.8 51.2 62.9 67.9 55.1 38.6 33.7 510.5 Mean Rain Days 8.5 7.7 9.3 9.8 13.1 14.8 16.7 16.7 15.5 15.6 12.1 10.7 142.4
