Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 05:00 AM EDT on Wednesday 06 December 2023
for the period until midnight EDT Thursday 07 December 2023
Wind Warnings for Wednesday 06 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast
Cancellation for the following areas:
Storm Bay, Channel, Central Plateau Lakes, Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Island and Upper East Coast
Wind Warnings for Thursday 07 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
South East Coast and South West Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Campania (42.6642°S, 147.4214°E, 76m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY11° 22° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:51am EDT 5:25am EDT 8:36pm EDT 9:11pm EDT NOW14.1° Feels Like: 9.8° Relative Humidity: 49% Dew: 3.6° Wind: W 15km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.3hPa -
Today Weather
CampaniaNow14.6°cFeels Like:11.7°Wind:N 7km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:46%11°Min22°MaxToday in CampaniaPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the far S, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds W 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then turning NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 22.Tomorrow10°Min24°MaxPartly cloudy. Winds W/NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 24. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the far S, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds W 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then turning NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 22.
Forecast for Campania (42.6642°S, 147.4214°E, 76m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 11° 10° 11° 12° 8° 10° 12° Maximum 22° 24° 26° 18° 22° 25° 24° Chance of rain 10% 5% 70% 60% 5% 20% 60% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - - Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 17
(km/h)21
(km/h)17
(km/h)19
(km/h)9
(km/h)23
(km/h)18
(km/h)32
(km/h)9
(km/h)21
(km/h)8
(km/h)22
(km/h)6
(km/h)21
(km/h)Wind direction W WSW WNW WSW NNW S SW SSW WSW SE SSW SSE ESE SSE Relative humidity 40% 38% 55% 40% 52% 48% 74% 65% 57% 49% 68% 56% 69% 56% Dew point 2°C 6°C 7°C 8°C 9°C 12°C 11°C 9°C 7°C 10°C 11°C 14°C 13°C 13°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Campania Rain Forecast
Campania 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
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MEDIUM9
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Jan 1
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CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2023-12-08, 2023-12-21 and 2023-12-29. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2023-12-14, 2023-12-23 and 2024-01-02. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2023-12-07, 2023-12-12 and 2023-12-17.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Campania Rain Forecast
Campania 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2023202467676483887105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 5
ENSO status: El Niño, reached a strong event. IOD status: Positive IOD, starting to weaken. SAM status: Neutral, trending positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño, with all international models indicating this event will continue until at least April 2024. Ocean warming is continuing to occur in the eastern and central Pacific and has reached the threshold for a 'strong event'. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has reduced further and is comfortably below the El Niño threshold, especially over the last 90-days. El Niño only has a limited effect on rainfall during summer, drying Far North Qld, increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor, and having little effect elsewhere. El Niño also typically delays the first monsoon onset and reduces the number of tropical cyclones impacting Australia, but otherwise has little effect on Australia during January and February. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a positive phase but is weakening from its peak in late October. Winds areexpected to weaken with the current tropical activity, but generally SE wind near Jakarta should maintain the event The IOD typically takes 3-6 weeks to decay, so could persist into the start of 2024. However, the first monsoon onset over northern Australia will still sever its effect on Australia. A positive IOD greatly reduces the formation of northwest cloudbands, leading to reductions in spring rainfall over northern WA, central Aus, and the southeast. A positive IOD often has a compound effect with El Niño, reducing rainfall even further. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral. It is expected to favour a positive event for the remainder of December. Longer-term, since negative SAM events become more likely during El Niño, models suggest it becoming strongly negative around February. A negative phase tends to increase cold front activity over southern Australia, increasing rainfall over southern Vic, western Tas, and southeast SA, while decreasing it for eastern NSW and Qld. The opposite occurs in a positive event, with easterly winds more likely, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east, but reducing it in southern and Western Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting above average rainfall for eastern NSW & Qld, below average rainfall over the Tas and far northern Australia, and average elsewhere in December. Large rainfall deficits are expected over northern Australia from December, likely with a delayed initial monsoon onset. Rainfall is forecast to be above average in the NT and NSW during January, with average to slightly below average elsewhere, with drier than normal conditions forecast throughout in February.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Campania Rain Forecast
Campania 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
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MEDIUM9
MEDIUM10
11
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21
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Jan 1
2
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CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2023-12-08, 2023-12-21 and 2023-12-29. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2023-12-14, 2023-12-23 and 2024-01-02. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2023-12-07, 2023-12-12 and 2023-12-17.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Campania Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Dec 0110.9 °C 19.8 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 028.8 °C 22.1 °C 0.2 mmSunday
Dec 0313.1 °C 21.7 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 048.3 °C 23.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 058.9 °C 25.5 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Campania minimum temp history (42.6642°S, 147.4214°E, 76m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 25.5° 05/12/2023 Coldest this month 8.3° 04/12/2023 Hottest on record 38.1 31/12/2009 Coldest on record 1.9 02/12/2011 Hottest this year 36.9° 17/02/2023 Coldest this year -3.1° 16/08/2023 Long term average 22.7° Long term average 10.1° Average this month 22.6° Average this month 10.0° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.5° 2000 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.0° 2001 Campania rainfall history (42.6642°S, 147.4214°E, 76m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.2mm 02/12/2023 Total This Month 0.2mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 41.9mm 11.7 days Wettest December on record 92.2mm 2014 Driest on record 2.0mm 2002 -
Year to Date
Campania Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 478.9mm 154.0 day(s) Total For 2023 308.8mm 129.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2022 594.4mm 153.0 day(s) Wettest Day 35.0mm Oct22 Lowest Temperature -3.1°C Aug16 Highest Temperature 36.9°C Feb17 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Campania Climatology
Campania Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.8 23.9 22.3 19.0 15.9 13.6 13.2 14.2 16.3 18.2 20.7 22.7 18.7 Mean Min (°C) 11.7 11.2 10.1 7.6 5.7 3.9 3.5 4.0 5.3 6.6 8.7 10.1 7.3 Mean Rain (mm) 36.2 30.9 34.4 31.5 37.0 43.8 33.3 50.8 44.1 48.2 46.8 41.9 486.4 Mean Rain Days 8.3 8.7 10.9 11.1 13.3 14.8 14.9 16.5 15.6 15.6 12.6 11.7 154.7