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Forecast

Maria Island (42.6152°S, 148.0472°E, 19m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Late shower 14° 34°
    late shower
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    4:59am EDT 5:32am EDT 8:17pm EDT 8:50pm EDT
    NOW
    16.2° Feels Like: 9.9°
    Relative Humidity: 65%
    Dew: 9.6°
    Wind: N 32km/h
    Gust: 33km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Maria Island
    Now
    19.8°c
    Feels Like:
    13.6°
    Wind:
    NNE 22km/h
    Gusts:
    30km/h
    Humidity:
    28%
    Late shower
     
    14°
    Min
    34°
    Max
    Today in Maria Island
    Hot. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the south, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Gusty winds in the afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 25 to 40 km/h increasing to 55 km/h before shifting SW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 29 to 34.
    Tomorrow
    Late shower
    14°
    Min
    34°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the north. Winds NW/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending NW/SW in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 22.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Hot. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the south, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Gusty winds in the afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 25 to 40 km/h increasing to 55 km/h before shifting SW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 29 to 34.

    Forecast for Maria Island (42.6152°S, 148.0472°E, 19m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Late shower Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny Possible shower Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 14° 10°
    Maximum 34° 20° 21° 21° 24° 19° 20°
    Chance of rain 50% 20% 60% 5% 60% 90% 20%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 30
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N NNW WNW ENE NNW W NW NNE NNW NW W WSW WNW NW
    Relative humidity 42% 32% 55% 58% 59% 47% 53% 45% 59% 43% 60% 50% 55% 52%
    Dew point 14°C 15°C 7°C 11°C 9°C 8°C 4°C 9°C 8°C 11°C 7°C 8°C 4°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Maria Island Rain Forecast


    Maria Island 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    HIGH
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    HIGH
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    HIGH
    18
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 November to 2 December, 9 December to 13 December, and 15 December to 19 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, and 3 December to 7 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 December to 10 December, 12 December to 16 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Maria Island Rain Forecast


    Maria Island 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    6
    6
    8
    6
    6
    5
    6
    7
    3
    8
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Maria Island Rain Forecast


    Maria Island 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    HIGH
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    HIGH
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    HIGH
    18
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 November to 2 December, 9 December to 13 December, and 15 December to 19 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, and 3 December to 7 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 December to 10 December, 12 December to 16 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Maria Island Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Nov 16
    7.4 °C 16.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Nov 17
    7.9 °C 15.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Nov 18
    10.5 °C 21.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 19
    9.0 °C 17.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 20
    10.5 °C 20 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Maria Island minimum temp history (42.6152°S, 148.0472°E, 19m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 27.2° 01/11/2019 Coldest this month 5.7° 09/11/2019
    Hottest on record 30.8 30/11/2012 Coldest on record 4.5 04/11/2013
    Hottest this year 34.6° 25/01/2019 Coldest this year 4.2° 08/08/2019
    Long term average 18.0° Long term average 10.9°
    Average this month 17.8° Average this month 9.4°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.3° 2015 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 9.4° 2006
    Maria Island rainfall history (42.6152°S, 148.0472°E, 19m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 2.6mm 12/11/2019 Total This Month 8.0mm
    8.0 days
    Long Term Average 59.1mm 12.5 days Wettest November on record 173.6mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Maria Island Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 453.0mm 127.2 day(s)
    Total For 2019 291.2mm 105.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 380.6mm 105.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 38.6mm Sep 7
    Lowest Temperature 4.2°C Aug 8
    Highest Temperature 34.6°C Jan25
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Maria Island Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 21.5 21.0 20.2 17.7 15.2 13.1 12.7 13.5 15.2 16.7 18.0 19.9 17.0
    Mean Min (°C) 13.7 13.8 13.1 11.4 9.6 8.0 7.4 7.5 8.5 9.3 10.9 12.2 10.4
    Mean Rain (mm) 46.0 35.4 32.1 35.5 38.9 50.3 34.2 40.4 50.4 30.7 59.1 43.3 496.7
    Mean Rain Days 8.4 9.7 10.6 10.3 12.0 13.7 13.3 13.0 12.2 11.5 12.5 10.8 128.9