Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Minor To Major Flood Warning For The Culgoa, Birrie, Bokhara And Narran Rivers
Issued at 06:35 PM EST on Sunday 22 May 2022
Flood Watch Number: 45
"Re-issued to correct Summary text for Goodwin"
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING AT ANGLEDOOL
MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE AT BRENDA, WEILMORINGLE AND KENEBREE FROM LATE MAY INTO JUNE
MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING AT GOODWINS
Moderate to heavy local rainfall in mid May, combined with floodwaters from Queensland, have caused renewed and prolonged flooding along the Culgoa, Birrie, Bokhara and Narran Rivers.
Along the Culgoa River, minor flooding is occurring at Brenda and Weilmoringle, where renewed rises to major flood levels are possible from late May into early June. These floodwaters may also cause major flooding downstream at Kenebree from mid June, where moderate flooding is currently occurring.
Renewed rises have also been observed along the Bokhara and Birrie River at Goodooga, where minor flooding is occurring.
Along the Bokhara River, an earlier flood peak has passed Goodwins, where river levels peaked slightly below the moderate flood level (2.60 metres). Renewed rises are possible.
Along the Narran River, major flooding is occurring at Angledool.
A major flood warning is current for the Condamine and Balonne Rivers in Queensland.
Culgoa River:
Major flooding is possible at Brenda, Weilmoringle and Kenebree. Moderate flooding is occurring at Kenebree, and minor flooding is occurring at Brenda and Weilmoringle.
The Culgoa River at Brenda may exceed the moderate flood level (5.50 metres) late Sunday into Monday. The river level may reach the major flood level (5.90 metres) around late May or early June. Further rises are possible.
The Culgoa River at Weilmoringle peaked at 5.74 metres around 03:00 pm Thursday 12 May, with minor flooding and is currently at 5.51 metres and falling.
Renewed rises are likely. The river level at Weilmoringle may reach the major flood level (5.80 metres) around early June. Further rises are possible.
The Culgoa River at Kenebree peaked at 5.91 metres around 07:15 am Sunday 22 May and is currently at 5.90 metres and steady.
Renewed rises are possible. The Culgoa River at Kenebree may reach the major flood level (6.30 metres) around mid June.
Birrie River:
Minor flooding is occurring along the Birrie River at Goodooga.
The Birrie River at Goodooga may reach around 3.70 metres around late May or early June, with minor flooding. Further rises are possible.
Bokhara River:
Minor flooding is occurring at Goodooga and Goodwins.
The Bokhara River at Goodooga may reach 3.20 metres around late May or early June, with minor flooding. Further rises are possible.
The Bokhara River at Goodwins peaked at 2.56 metres Thursday 19 May, just below the moderate flood level (2.60 metres), and is currently at 2.50 metres and falling, with minor flooding.
Renewed rises are possible.
Narran River:
Major flooding is occurring along the Narran River at Angledool.
The Narran River at New Angledool No 2 is likely to reach around 4.00 metres around late May, with major flooding. Further rises are possible.
Flood Safety Advice:
In life threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately. If you require rescue, assistance to evacuate or other emergency help, ring NSW SES on 132 500.
* Avoid drowning. Stay out of rising water, seek refuge in the highest available place.
* Prevent damage to your vehicle. Move it under cover, away from areas likely to flood.
* Avoid being swept away. Stay out of fast-flowing creeks and storm drains.
* Never drive, ride or walk through flood water. Flood water can be deceptive and dangerous.}
For more emergency information, advice, and access to the latest river heights and rainfall observations and forecasts:
* NSW SES: www.ses.nsw.gov.au
* RMS Live Traffic: www.livetraffic.com
* Latest River Heights and Rainfall Observations: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/outerwest.shtml
* Latest NSW Warnings: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/
* Rainfall Forecasts: www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
* BOM NSW Twitter: www.twitter.com/BOM_NSW
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 04:00 pm EST on Monday 23 May 2022.
Latest River Heights:
Culgoa River at Brenda,5.43,Rising,06:00 PM SUN 22/05/22
Culgoa River at Weilmoringle,5.51,Falling,06:00 PM SUN 22/05/22
Culgoa River at Kenebree,5.90,Steady,05:30 PM SUN 22/05/22
Birrie River at Goodooga,3.33,Rising,06:00 PM SUN 22/05/22
Bokhara River at Goodooga,2.83,Rising,06:00 PM SUN 22/05/22
Bokhara River at Goodwins,2.50,Falling,06:00 PM SUN 22/05/22
Narran River at New Angledool No 2,3.84,Rising,06:00 PM SUN 22/05/22
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts.
Forecast
Bourke (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TODAY10° 21° mostly cloudy Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:33am EST 6:58am EST 5:27pm EST 5:53pm EST NOW12.6° Feels Like: 10.9° Relative Humidity: 85% Dew: 10.1° Wind: SE 9km/h Gust: 11km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1023.4hPa -
Today Weather
BourkeNow9.9°cFeels Like:6.6°Wind:E 15km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:90%10°Min21°MaxToday in BourkePartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the far W this afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds E 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low 20s.Tomorrow9°Min22°MaxMostly sunny. Light winds becoming E 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching the low 20s. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
-
7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the far W this afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds E 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low 20s.
Forecast for Bourke (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 10° 9° 10° 11° 10° 10° 8° Maximum 21° 22° 21° 21° 22° 20° 20° Chance of rain 30% 20% 50% 60% 30% 40% 70% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 17
(km/h)16
(km/h)13
(km/h)14
(km/h)15
(km/h)16
(km/h)10
(km/h)5
(km/h)5
(km/h)4
(km/h)8
(km/h)13
(km/h)7
(km/h)11
(km/h)Wind direction ESE E ESE E E ENE ENE ENE ESE WSW SSW W SW W Relative humidity 75% 58% 82% 54% 80% 60% 85% 60% 87% 57% 84% 48% 77% 42% Dew point 11°C 12°C 11°C 12°C 10°C 12°C 12°C 12°C 12°C 13°C 11°C 8°C 9°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bourke Rain Forecast
Bourke 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT23
24
MEDIUM25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
LOW31
LOWJun 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
8
9
LOW10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 6 June to 10 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 May to 28 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bourke Rain Forecast
Bourke 12-month Rainfall ForecastMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr20222023889988985778105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued May 11
ENSO status: La Niña, it is expected return to neutral state by early winter. IOD status: Neutral, models suggest it could enter a negative phase in the next month. SAM status: Positive and is expected to remain positive for the next month or so. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña phase and has not changed in strength during the past two weeks. La Niña events typically breaks down in autumn and while this current La Niña is persisting longer than usual, most models suggest it should end by early winter. However, one seasonal model operated by the U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) suggests that a La Niña-like signal could linger in the Pacific Ocean through the middle of the year and possibly remerge in the Southern Hemisphere’s spring. That being said, it is important to note that seasonal forecast models have lower accuracy at this time of year. This is called the autumn predictability barrier. The La Niña forecast will increase the likelihood of above-average rain in northern and eastern Australia during the remainder of Autumn, possibly into winter. Even as La Niña weakens it should continue to influence our climate. all five climate models suggest a negative phase will begin during late autumn or early winter. Climate models are forecasting strong negative IOD values by August, with the negative IOD event possibly lingering into spring. While a neutral IOD has little influence on our climate, a negative IOD increases the chance of above average autumn and winter rain for much of Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except southwest WA, parts of TAS and VIC. If a negative IOD does develop this winter, it will increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia, especially areas that had a wet summer and autumn.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Long range rainfall forecast
Bourke Rain Forecast
Bourke 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT23
24
MEDIUM25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
LOW31
LOWJun 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
8
9
LOW10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 6 June to 10 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 May to 28 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Past 5 Days
Bourke Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
May 189.0 °C 19.4 °C 0.0 mmThursday
May 199.1 °C 17.3 °C 0.0 mmFriday
May 208.7 °C 20.4 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
May 2111.1 °C 21.9 °C 0.0 mmSunday
May 2212.2 °C 22.2 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bourke minimum temp history (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 27.6° 03/05/2022 Coldest this month 3.4° 06/05/2022 Hottest on record 32.1 01/05/2013 Coldest on record -1.7 31/05/2006 Hottest this year 41.5° 03/01/2022 Coldest this year 3.4° 06/05/2022 Long term average 22.6° Long term average 8.4° Average this month 21.4° Average this month 10.7° Hottest May On Record Avg. max. temp. 24.9° 2014 Coldest May on record Avg. min. temp. 4.8° 2006 Bourke rainfall history (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 31.6mm 11/05/2022 Total This Month 60.4mm
9.0 daysLong Term Average 22.7mm 4.0 days Wettest May on record 109.4mm 2000 Driest on record 0.0mm 2006 -
Year to Date
Bourke Year To Date
Average Rainfall To May 152.9mm 23.7 day(s) Total For 2022 193.6mm 40.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2021 229.2mm 27.0 day(s) Wettest Day 31.6mm May11 Lowest Temperature 3.4°C May 6 Highest Temperature 41.5°C Jan 3 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
- Broadmeadows
- Broome
- Cairns
- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
- Giles
-
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Climate History
Bourke Climatology
Bourke Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 37.6 35.6 32.5 28.0 22.6 18.8 18.8 21.2 25.9 29.7 32.5 35.5 28.2 Mean Min (°C) 22.7 21.7 18.5 13.5 8.4 5.8 4.1 5.1 9.3 13.8 17.5 20.3 13.3 Mean Rain (mm) 33.2 33.1 40.3 23.6 22.7 30.4 12.9 12.7 18.9 22.8 45.5 39.6 324.5 Mean Rain Days 5.8 4.7 5.5 3.7 4.0 6.3 4.7 2.9 4.0 4.7 6.6 5.0 56.1