Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw)
Issued at 09:56 AM EDT on Wednesday 29 January 2020
Flood Watch Number: 5
MINOR FLOODING CURRENT AT WILLARA CROSSING AND FORECAST AT WANAARING
Minor flooding is occurring along the Paroo River at Willara Crossing where the river peaked early Tuesday morning.
Minor flooding is possible at Wanaaring over the weekend.
Further flood waters from the Upper Paroo are expected to reach New South Wales early next week.
Paroo River (NSW):
Minor flooding is current at Willara Crossing. Minor flooding may occur at Wanaaring.
The Paroo River at Willara Crossing peaked at 1.35 metres early Tuesday morning and is falling slowly with minor flooding. Further rises are possible early next week.
The Paroo river at Wanaaring is likely to peak near the minor flood level (2.40 metres) over the weekend.
Flood Safety Advice:
In life threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately. If you require rescue, assistance to evacuate or other emergency help, ring NSW SES on 132 500.
Avoid drowning. Stay out of rising water, seek refuge in the highest available place.
Prevent damage to your vehicle. Move it under cover, away from areas likely to flood.
Avoid being swept away. Stay out of fast-flowing creeks and storm drains.
Never drive, ride or walk through flood water. Flood water can be deceptive and dangerous.}
For more emergency information, advice, and access to the latest river heights and rainfall observations and forecasts:
* NSW SES: www.ses.nsw.gov.au
* RMS Live Traffic: www.livetraffic.com
* Latest River Heights and Rainfall Observations: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/outerwest.shtml
* Latest NSW Warnings: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/
* Rainfall Forecasts: www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
* BOM NSW Twitter: www.twitter.com/BOM_NSW
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EDT on Friday 31 January 2020.
Latest River Heights:
Paroo River at Caiwarro,1.90,Rising,08:00 AM WED 29/01/20
Paroo River at Hungerford,0.75,Falling,06:00 AM WED 29/01/20
Paroo River at Willara Crossing,1.18,Falling,09:00 AM WED 29/01/20
Paroo River at Wanaaring,0.40,Steady,09:00 AM WED 29/01/20
Turra at Cuttaburra Channel,0.82,Steady,09:00 AM WED 29/01/20
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts.
Forecast
Bourke (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
28° 42° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:16am EDT 6:42am EDT 8:17pm EDT 8:43pm EDT NOW41.2° Feels Like: 39.1° Relative Humidity: 17% Dew: 11.3° Wind: NE 13km/h Gust: 18km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1008.8hPa -
Today Weather
BourkeNow40.4°cFeels Like:36.2°Wind:S 11km/hGusts:20km/hHumidity:8%
28°Min42°MaxToday in BourkeVery hot and sunny. Winds E/SE 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low 40s.Tomorrow
29°Min43°MaxVery hot and mostly sunny. Winds E/SE 15 to 20 km/h tending E/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending NW/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to 25 to 31 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 40s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Very hot and sunny. Winds E/SE 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low 40s.
Forecast for Bourke (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary 
Minimum 28° 29° 30° 31° 31° 23° 20° Maximum 42° 43° 44° 44° 42° 33° 33° Chance of rain 5% 5% 20% 20% 80% 80% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 16
(km/h)8
(km/h)14
(km/h)12
(km/h)20
(km/h)17
(km/h)22
(km/h)15
(km/h)20
(km/h)18
(km/h)19
(km/h)20
(km/h)18
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction ESE ESE NE NNE NNE NE NNE NNE NNW W SSW SW SSE S Relative humidity 19% 19% 27% 18% 30% 19% 27% 16% 26% 21% 46% 40% 35% 26% Dew point 6°C 13°C 13°C 14°C 15°C 15°C 14°C 13°C 14°C 15°C 14°C 17°C 7°C 11°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bourke Rain Forecast
Bourke 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT29
30
31
Feb 1
2
MEDIUM3
MEDIUM4
5
6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
10
LOW11
LOW12
LOW13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
LOW25
LOW26
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan29Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bourke Rain Forecast
Bourke 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2020374888847778105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 14
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bourke Rain Forecast
Bourke 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT29
30
31
Feb 1
2
MEDIUM3
MEDIUM4
5
6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
10
LOW11
LOW12
LOW13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
LOW25
LOW26
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan29Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bourke Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Jan 2524.0 °C 38.5 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Jan 2626.3 °C 38.9 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2727.2 °C 41.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 2826.5 °C 41.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Jan 2924.4 °C 41 °C 5.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bourke minimum temp history (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 47.0° 10/01/2020 Coldest this month 18.4° 21/01/2020 Hottest on record 48.3 12/01/2013 Coldest on record 11.0 24/01/2000 Hottest this year 47.0° 10/01/2020 Coldest this year 18.4° 21/01/2020 Long term average 37.2° Long term average 22.3° Average this month 40.3° Average this month 25.4° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 40.6° 2013 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 18.8° 2000 Bourke rainfall history (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 12.0mm 15/01/2020 Total This Month 29.2mm
6.0 daysLong Term Average 33.2mm 5.2 days Wettest January on record 133.0mm 2013 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Bourke Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 33.2mm 5.2 day(s) Total For 2020 29.2mm 6.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2019 14.4mm 6.0 day(s) Wettest Day 12.0mm Jan15 Lowest Temperature 18.4°C Jan21 Highest Temperature 47.0°C Jan10 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Bourke Climatology
Bourke Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 37.2 35.6 32.5 27.9 22.6 18.6 18.4 21.3 25.8 29.8 32.7 35.3 28.2 Mean Min (°C) 22.3 21.8 18.6 13.4 8.4 6.0 4.1 5.0 9.3 13.6 17.4 20.3 13.2 Mean Rain (mm) 33.2 35.5 40.5 23.8 25.7 36.2 15.3 13.0 19.9 20.8 39.6 39.9 344.3 Mean Rain Days 5.2 4.9 5.0 3.4 4.4 6.8 4.5 3.3 4.3 4.6 6.1 4.6 52.4
