Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw)
Issued at 01:37 PM EDT on Monday 18 March 2024
Flood Warning Number: 34
MINOR FLOODING EASING AT WILLARA CROSSING
Rainfall over the last month across the Paroo River catchment in Queensland and New South Wales has caused elevated river levels and minor flooding is occurring along the Paroo River at Willara Crossing.
No significant rainfall is forecast across the Paroo River catchment for the next few days.
Paroo River (NSW):
Minor flooding is occurring along the Paroo River (NSW) at Willara Crossing.
The Paroo River at Willara Crossing peaked around 1.30 metres around 06:00 pm Friday 15 March. The river level is currently at 0.71 metres and falling slowly, above the minor flood level (0.70 m).
The Paroo River at Willara Crossing may fall below the minor flood level (0.70 m) Monday afternoon.
No recent observations are available for the the Paroo River at Wanaaring, however the river level is expected to be below the minor flood level (2.40 m), and rising.
The Paroo River at Wanaaring may peak near the minor flood level around the middle of this week.
Flood Safety Advice:
In life threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately. If you require rescue, assistance to evacuate or other emergency help, ring NSW SES on 132 500.
Avoid drowning. Stay out of rising water, seek refuge in the highest available place.
Prevent damage to your vehicle. Move it under cover, away from areas likely to flood.
Avoid being swept away. Stay out of fast-flowing creeks and storm drains.
Never drive, ride or walk through flood water. Flood water can be deceptive and dangerous.}
For more emergency information, advice, and access to the latest river heights and rainfall observations and forecasts:
* NSW SES: www.ses.nsw.gov.au
* RMS Live Traffic: www.livetraffic.com
* Latest River Heights and Rainfall Observations: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/outerwest.shtml
* Latest NSW Warnings: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/
* Rainfall Forecasts: www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
* BOM NSW Twitter: www.twitter.com/BOM_NSW
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 02:00 pm EDT on Wednesday 20 March 2024.
Latest River Heights:
Paroo River at Caiwarro,1.23,Steady,12:00 PM MON 18/03/24
Paroo River at Willara Crossing,0.71,Falling,01:00 PM MON 18/03/24
Turra at Cuttaburra Channel,1.64,Steady,01:30 PM MON 18/03/24
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts.
Forecast
Bourke (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY21° 38° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 50% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:55am EDT 7:19am EDT 7:28pm EDT 7:52pm EDT NOW37.5° Feels Like: 35.8° Relative Humidity: 28% Dew: 15.9° Wind: N 19km/h Gust: 20km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1009.8hPa -
Today Weather
BourkeNow30.0°cFeels Like:30.3°Wind:N 13km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:49%21°Min38°MaxToday in BourkeMostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the SW, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 25 to 35 km/h becoming NE 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening.Tomorrow22°Min31°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the SE, medium chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds S 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the morning then turning SE 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching 24 to 33. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the SW, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 25 to 35 km/h becoming NE 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening.
Forecast for Bourke (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 21° 22° 14° 18° 18° 17° 17° Maximum 38° 31° 31° 30° 29° 28° 27° Chance of rain 50% 40% 50% 60% 50% 40% 70% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm < 1mm 5-10mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate No Rating - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 19
(km/h)11
(km/h)26
(km/h)29
(km/h)23
(km/h)22
(km/h)23
(km/h)19
(km/h)15
(km/h)16
(km/h)15
(km/h)18
(km/h)15
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction ENE NNE SSW S SSE ESE ENE ENE E E ESE ESE ESE ESE Relative humidity 71% 28% 74% 59% 56% 40% 67% 56% 75% 59% 79% 55% 74% 57% Dew point 20°C 16°C 21°C 19°C 10°C 15°C 16°C 19°C 18°C 19°C 18°C 17°C 17°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bourke Rain Forecast
Bourke 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bourke Rain Forecast
Bourke 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025578888678857105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bourke Rain Forecast
Bourke 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Bourke Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1523.9 °C 39.0 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1622.3 °C 26.5 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1719.1 °C 30.8 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1818.9 °C 33.3 °C 20.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1922.1 °C 38.0 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bourke minimum temp history (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 41.0° 01/03/2024 Coldest this month 17.3° 13/03/2024 Hottest on record 43.0 19/03/2002 Coldest on record 5.8 29/03/2008 Hottest this year 43.2° 26/01/2024 Coldest this year 15.2° 25/02/2024 Long term average 32.7° Long term average 18.6° Average this month 36.0° Average this month 21.1° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 34.7° 2015 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 16.5° 2008 Bourke rainfall history (30.0888°S, 145.9377°E, 96m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 20.0mm 18/03/2024 Total This Month 26.8mm
6.0 daysLong Term Average 38.9mm 5.3 days Wettest March on record 189.6mm 2000 Driest on record 1.0mm 2005 -
Year to Date
Bourke Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 108.3mm 15.9 day(s) Total For 2024 198.6mm 18.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 41.0mm 10.0 day(s) Wettest Day 93.2mm Jan 8 Lowest Temperature 15.2°C Feb25 Highest Temperature 43.2°C Jan26 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Bourke Climatology
Bourke Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 37.5 35.6 32.7 28.0 22.5 18.8 18.8 21.3 26.0 29.6 32.3 35.4 28.2 Mean Min (°C) 22.7 21.6 18.6 13.4 8.3 5.7 4.2 5.2 9.3 13.8 17.5 20.2 13.3 Mean Rain (mm) 37.8 31.6 38.9 23.6 23.6 29.4 14.6 12.9 19.4 27.6 47.9 36.9 329.9 Mean Rain Days 6.1 4.5 5.3 3.6 4.3 6.2 4.9 3.2 4.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 57.8