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Forecast

Warrnambool (38.3833°S, 142.483°E, 25m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 14°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 20%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:55am EST 7:23am EST 5:49pm EST 6:17pm EST
    NOW
    10.7° Feels Like: 6.3°
    Relative Humidity: 91%
    Dew: 9.3°
    Wind: SE 22km/h
    Gust: 24km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1021.6hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Warrnambool
    Now
    12.2°c
    Feels Like:
    6.6°
    Wind:
    SE 28km/h
    Gusts:
    35km/h
    Humidity:
    81%
    Mostly sunny
     
    Min
    14°
    Max
    Today in Warrnambool
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the south this morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds SE 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 13.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Areas of morning fog. Areas of morning frost in the north. Sunny afternoon. Winds E/SE 15 to 25 km/h turning N/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the south this morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds SE 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 13.

    Forecast for Warrnambool (38.3833°S, 142.483°E, 25m AMSL)
      Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    Summary Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Cloudy Showers Showers Showers increasing Showers
    Minimum
    Maximum 14° 15° 15° 17° 17° 16° 14°
    Chance of rain 20% 5% 30% 70% 60% 90% 90%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low Moderate - -
    Frost risk Nil Moderate Slight Nil Nil Nil Slight
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 15
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SE SSE ENE ENE NNE NE NNE N N NNW N NW N SSW
    Relative humidity 96% 85% 100% 76% 87% 81% 97% 85% 100% 88% 100% 93% 100% 93%
    Dew point 10°C 11°C 8°C 10°C 9°C 11°C 11°C 14°C 11°C 14°C 10°C 13°C 9°C 12°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Warrnambool Rain Forecast


    Warrnambool 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    HIGH
    15
    HIGH
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    LOW
    Sep 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 August to 26 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 5 September to 9 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Warrnambool Rain Forecast


    Warrnambool 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    5
    6
    6
    6
    7
    8
    6
    6
    5
    4
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 5

    ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific show a slight decrease in the intensity of cooling compared to June, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.0 in July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 4.2 in the same month, a swing into positive values compared to June. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific through the end of winter and potentially reach La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring, with four of these indicating La Nina by Spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 54:41 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Two of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becoming established during the Austral spring, with the remaining four indicating a neutral phase. Of the four neutral models, including the BOM, three are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, with only the Canadian model trending positive. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short-term outlook favours above average rainfall across most of Australia over the next fortnight, with the exception of western TAS, far southern VIC, and northern QLD and the NT. These expected wetter than average conditions will likely be due to the passage of moisture troughs inland and fronts, in part driven by the positive SAM. Models are then indicating a continued trend to above average rainfall for inland SA, all but the far north of the NT, western, central and southern QLD, northern and western NSW and parts of southern WA. Parts of WA’s Pilbara and Kimberley however are showing signs of below average rainfall into early spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Warrnambool Rain Forecast


    Warrnambool 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    HIGH
    15
    HIGH
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    LOW
    Sep 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 August to 26 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 5 September to 9 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Warrnambool Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Wednesday
    Aug 05
    5.6 °C 11.0 °C
    3.4 mm
    Thursday
    Aug 06
    1.7 °C 12.8 °C
    2.8 mm
    Friday
    Aug 07
    4.5 °C 11.8 °C
    0.2 mm
    Saturday
    Aug 08
    7.3 °C 13.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Aug 09
    7.7 °C 10.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Warrnambool minimum temp history (38.3833°S, 142.483°E, 25m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 18.1° 01/08/2020 Coldest this month 1.7° 06/08/2020
    Hottest on record 22.9 27/08/2007 Coldest on record -1.4 20/08/2003
    Hottest this year 41.1° 30/01/2020 Coldest this year -1.9° 26/07/2020
    Long term average 14.4° Long term average 5.9°
    Average this month 13.0° Average this month 5.1°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 15.8° 2011 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 4.8° 2002
    Warrnambool rainfall history (38.3833°S, 142.483°E, 25m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 9.2mm 04/08/2020 Total This Month 15.6mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 94.1mm 21.7 days Wettest August on record 204.4mm 2001
    Driest on record 32.8mm 2006
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Warrnambool Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 505.2mm 130.2 day(s)
    Total For 2020 403.6mm 109.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 428.0mm 108.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 24.6mm May20
    Lowest Temperature -1.9°C Jul26
    Highest Temperature 41.1°C Jan30
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Warrnambool Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 24.5 24.8 23.2 20.0 16.5 14.1 13.5 14.4 16.1 18.1 20.4 22.7 19.1
    Mean Min (°C) 11.8 12.4 10.9 8.9 7.4 5.9 5.6 5.9 6.8 7.3 9.0 10.1 8.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 37.3 31.7 49.7 54.5 71.2 80.6 86.1 94.1 72.6 63.6 51.2 47.2 735.4
    Mean Rain Days 9.1 8.7 12.8 15.3 20.5 20.2 21.9 21.7 19.7 18.2 13.7 12.1 180.0