Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Victoria
Issued at 04:40 PM EDT on Tuesday 19 March 2024
for the period until midnight EDT Wednesday 20 March 2024
Wind Warnings for Tuesday 19 March
Gale Warning for the following areas:
East Gippsland Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Port Phillip, West Coast and Central Coast
Wind Warnings for Wednesday 20 March
Gale Warning for the following areas:
East Gippsland Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Port Phillip, Western Port, West Coast, Central Coast and Central Gippsland Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 5:10 am EDT Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Port Fairy (38.3855°S, 142.2367°E, 0m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW12° 18° clearing shower Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 7:08am EDT 7:34am EDT 7:42pm EDT 8:09pm EDT NOW17.0° Feels Like: 10.3° Relative Humidity: 82% Dew: 13.9° Wind: W 41km/h Gust: 48km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm Pressure: 1012.2hPa -
Today Weather
Port FairyNow18.4°cFeels Like:11.9°Wind:SW 39km/hGusts:50km/hHumidity:73%12°Min18°MaxToday in Port FairyPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers near the Otways in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the middle of the day then turning S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to around 9 with daytime temperatures reaching around 18.Tomorrow12°Min18°MaxMostly sunny. Light winds becoming S/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching the low 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers near the Otways in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the middle of the day then turning S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to around 9 with daytime temperatures reaching around 18.
Forecast for Port Fairy (38.3855°S, 142.2367°E, 0m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 12° 10° 9° 13° 12° 13° 13° Maximum 18° 19° 20° 20° 21° 22° 19° Chance of rain 30% 10% 60% 40% 20% 40% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm UV index High High High High High Moderate High Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 34
(km/h)27
(km/h)7
(km/h)12
(km/h)5
(km/h)16
(km/h)16
(km/h)19
(km/h)17
(km/h)22
(km/h)22
(km/h)26
(km/h)15
(km/h)20
(km/h)Wind direction WSW SW N S N SW S SSW W WSW NW W SSW SSW Relative humidity 61% 53% 68% 59% 81% 65% 77% 64% 71% 67% 81% 71% 69% 64% Dew point 7°C 8°C 7°C 11°C 9°C 12°C 11°C 13°C 11°C 15°C 13°C 16°C 10°C 11°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Port Fairy Rain Forecast
Port Fairy 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Port Fairy Rain Forecast
Port Fairy 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025664544666796105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Port Fairy Rain Forecast
Port Fairy 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Port Fairy Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1514.7 °C 22.0 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1615.2 °C 22.2 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 1713.8 °C 28.3 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1815.8 °C 33.6 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 1918.4 °C 24.2 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Port Fairy minimum temp history (38.3855°S, 142.2367°E, 0m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 41.0° 09/03/2024 Coldest this month 8.2° 08/03/2024 Hottest on record 41.3 17/03/2008 Coldest on record 5.3 26/03/1995 Hottest this year 41.0° 09/03/2024 Coldest this year 7.9° 15/02/2024 Long term average 21.5° Long term average 13.1° Average this month 24.8° Average this month 14.7° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.0° 2013 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 11.3° 2015 Port Fairy rainfall history (38.3855°S, 142.2367°E, 0m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.6mm 13/03/2024 Total This Month 0.8mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 38.3mm 11.8 days Wettest March on record 71.4mm 2017 Driest on record 18.0mm 2005 -
Year to Date
Port Fairy Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 100.5mm 26.9 day(s) Total For 2024 38.0mm 15.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 123.8mm 22.0 day(s) Wettest Day 15.0mm Jan17 Lowest Temperature 7.9°C Feb15 Highest Temperature 41.0°C Mar 9 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Port Fairy Climatology
Port Fairy Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 22.7 22.7 21.5 19.4 16.8 14.7 14.2 15.1 16.7 18.3 19.9 21.3 18.6 Mean Min (°C) 14.2 14.4 13.1 10.9 9.1 7.6 7.0 7.3 8.3 9.5 11.2 12.6 10.4 Mean Rain (mm) 32.2 30.0 38.3 48.7 71.3 80.5 88.3 86.2 67.4 56.6 46.3 40.6 682.6 Mean Rain Days 7.7 7.4 11.8 14.4 19.0 19.2 20.8 20.6 17.3 15.7 11.6 10.6 175.4