Forecast
Ferny Creek (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY8° 16° possible shower Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:39am EDT 7:05am EDT 7:55pm EDT 8:22pm EDT NOW11.2° Feels Like: 10.5° Relative Humidity: 91% Dew: 9.8° Wind: W 4km/h Gust: 6km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1017.5hPa -
Today Weather
Ferny CreekNow15.1°cFeels Like:13.2°Wind:NW 9km/hGusts:13km/hHumidity:69%8°Min16°MaxToday in Ferny CreekCloudy.The chance of early fog about the nearby hills. Medium chance of patchy light showers or drizzle about the E suburbs, grading to a slight chance in the W. Showers most likely during the evening. Winds SW 20 to 30 km/h.Tomorrow9°Min13°MaxCloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the early morning. Winds SW 15 to 25 km/h turning S 25 to 35 km/h during the morning. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Ferny Creek
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy.The chance of early fog about the nearby hills. Medium chance of patchy light showers or drizzle about the E suburbs, grading to a slight chance in the W. Showers most likely during the evening. Winds SW 20 to 30 km/h.
Forecast for Ferny Creek (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 8° 9° 7° 6° 12° 11° 8° Maximum 16° 13° 18° 24° 20° 16° 18° Chance of rain 90% 20% 5% 5% 40% 40% 20% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 2
(km/h)5
(km/h)9
(km/h)10
(km/h)4
(km/h)5
(km/h)3
(km/h)5
(km/h)3
(km/h)4
(km/h)5
(km/h)8
(km/h)4
(km/h)6
(km/h)Wind direction WNW WSW SW SW S S NE N W WSW SSW SSW SSE S Relative humidity 99% 80% 77% 68% 74% 52% 75% 43% 75% 65% 84% 64% 80% 58% Dew point 10°C 11°C 7°C 6°C 5°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 11°C 12°C 10°C 8°C 8°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Ferny Creek Rain Forecast
Ferny Creek 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
6
7
8
LOW9
LOW10
11
12
13
14
15
LOW16
17
LOW18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
25
MEDIUM26
LOW27
28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWApr 1
HIGHCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ferny Creek Rain Forecast
Ferny Creek 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2021202266566457764105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 5
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Ferny Creek Rain Forecast
Ferny Creek 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
6
7
8
LOW9
LOW10
11
12
13
14
15
LOW16
17
LOW18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
25
MEDIUM26
LOW27
28
LOW29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWApr 1
HIGHCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Ferny Creek Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Feb 289.8 °C 24.7 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 0111.9 °C 17.7 °C 0.2 mmTuesday
Mar 026.9 °C 14.6 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Mar 038.1 °C 14.9 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Mar 048.3 °C 11.4 °C 1.4 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ferny Creek minimum temp history (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 22.6° 01/03/2021 Coldest this month 10.1° 02/03/2021 Hottest on record 39.8 08/03/2016 Coldest on record 2.2 06/03/1969 Hottest this year 39.9° 25/01/2021 Coldest this year 6.3° 20/01/2021 Long term average 24.3° Long term average 12.6° Average this month 20.4° Average this month 11.6° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.8° 2017 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 10.2° 1965 Ferny Creek rainfall history (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 03/03/2021 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 52.8mm 10.3 days Wettest March on record 184.8mm 1970 Driest on record 4.0mm 1951 -
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Year to Date
Ferny Creek Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 159.5mm 27.0 day(s) Total For 2021 108.0mm 18.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 257.2mm 23.0 day(s) Wettest Day 37.6mm Jan30 Lowest Temperature 6.3°C Jan20 Highest Temperature 39.9°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Ferny Creek Climatology
Ferny Creek Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.5 26.8 24.3 20.3 16.5 13.8 13.2 14.4 16.6 19.4 21.9 24.3 19.8 Mean Min (°C) 13.7 14.1 12.6 10.2 8.4 6.4 6.0 6.5 7.7 8.9 10.6 12.1 9.8 Mean Rain (mm) 53.5 53.2 52.8 68.7 86.4 68.5 72.2 79.9 83.5 82.5 80.9 75.4 858.5 Mean Rain Days 8.8 7.9 10.3 13.1 17.5 18.6 19.7 18.9 16.5 15.4 13.6 11.4 171.9