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Forecast

Ferny Creek (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible shower 16°
    possible shower
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:39am EDT 7:05am EDT 7:55pm EDT 8:22pm EDT
    NOW
    11.2° Feels Like: 10.5°
    Relative Humidity: 91%
    Dew: 9.8°
    Wind: W 4km/h
    Gust: 6km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1017.5hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Ferny Creek
    Now
    15.1°c
    Feels Like:
    13.2°
    Wind:
    NW 9km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    69%
    Possible shower
     
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Today in Ferny Creek
    Cloudy.The chance of early fog about the nearby hills. Medium chance of patchy light showers or drizzle about the E suburbs, grading to a slight chance in the W. Showers most likely during the evening. Winds SW 20 to 30 km/h.
    Tomorrow
    Cloudy
    Min
    13°
    Max
    Cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the early morning. Winds SW 15 to 25 km/h turning S 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Ferny Creek

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy.The chance of early fog about the nearby hills. Medium chance of patchy light showers or drizzle about the E suburbs, grading to a slight chance in the W. Showers most likely during the evening. Winds SW 20 to 30 km/h.

    Forecast for Ferny Creek (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Possible shower Cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 12° 11°
    Maximum 16° 13° 18° 24° 20° 16° 18°
    Chance of rain 90% 20% 5% 5% 40% 40% 20%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 2
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW WSW SW SW S S NE N W WSW SSW SSW SSE S
    Relative humidity 99% 80% 77% 68% 74% 52% 75% 43% 75% 65% 84% 64% 80% 58%
    Dew point 10°C 11°C 7°C 6°C 5°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 11°C 12°C 10°C 8°C 8°C 8°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Ferny Creek Rain Forecast


    Ferny Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    4
    HIGH
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Apr 1
    HIGH
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar 4

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Ferny Creek Rain Forecast


    Ferny Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    2021
    2022
    6
    6
    5
    6
    6
    4
    5
    7
    7
    6
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Feb 5

    ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Ferny Creek Rain Forecast


    Ferny Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    4
    HIGH
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Apr 1
    HIGH
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar 4

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Ferny Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Feb 28
    9.8 °C 24.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Mar 01
    11.9 °C 17.7 °C
    0.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Mar 02
    6.9 °C 14.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Mar 03
    8.1 °C 14.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Mar 04
    8.3 °C 11.4 °C
    1.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Ferny Creek minimum temp history (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 22.6° 01/03/2021 Coldest this month 10.1° 02/03/2021
    Hottest on record 39.8 08/03/2016 Coldest on record 2.2 06/03/1969
    Hottest this year 39.9° 25/01/2021 Coldest this year 6.3° 20/01/2021
    Long term average 24.3° Long term average 12.6°
    Average this month 20.4° Average this month 11.6°
    Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.8° 2017 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 10.2° 1965
    Ferny Creek rainfall history (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.0mm 03/03/2021 Total This Month 0.0mm
    0.0 days
    Long Term Average 52.8mm 10.3 days Wettest March on record 184.8mm 1970
    Driest on record 4.0mm 1951
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Ferny Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Mar 159.5mm 27.0 day(s)
    Total For 2021 108.0mm 18.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 257.2mm 23.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 37.6mm Jan30
    Lowest Temperature 6.3°C Jan20
    Highest Temperature 39.9°C Jan25
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Ferny Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.5 26.8 24.3 20.3 16.5 13.8 13.2 14.4 16.6 19.4 21.9 24.3 19.8
    Mean Min (°C) 13.7 14.1 12.6 10.2 8.4 6.4 6.0 6.5 7.7 8.9 10.6 12.1 9.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 53.5 53.2 52.8 68.7 86.4 68.5 72.2 79.9 83.5 82.5 80.9 75.4 858.5
    Mean Rain Days 8.8 7.9 10.3 13.1 17.5 18.6 19.7 18.9 16.5 15.4 13.6 11.4 171.9