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Forecast

Ferny Creek (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Wind and showers easing
    wind and showers easing
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:47am EST 7:15am EST 5:35pm EST 6:03pm EST
    NOW
    0.6° Feels Like: -2.1°
    Relative Humidity: 100%
    Dew: 0.6°
    Wind: W 4km/h
    Gust: 7km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 6.4mm
    Pressure: 1012.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Ferny Creek
    Now
    3.7°c
    Feels Like:
    1.1°
    Wind:
    NE 6km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    98%
    Wind and showers easing
     
    Min
    Max
    Today in Ferny Creek
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the early morning and the afternoon. Snow falling above 600 metres in the morning. Possible hail in the early morning. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h tending SW 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then becoming light in the late evening.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    Min
    Max
    Cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming S 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Ferny Creek

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the early morning and the afternoon. Snow falling above 600 metres in the morning. Possible hail in the early morning. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h tending SW 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then becoming light in the late evening.

    Forecast for Ferny Creek (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Wind and showers easing Possible shower Late shower Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower Frost then sunny
    Minimum
    Maximum
    Chance of rain 80% 50% 80% 50% 30% 20% 80%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low - - -
    Frost risk Moderate Moderate High Nil Slight Moderate High
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 12
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    2
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WSW WSW WNW S ESE ESE ESE SE SSE SSE S SSW NE NNE
    Relative humidity 86% 80% 92% 82% 83% 83% 86% 87% 86% 79% 88% 79% 83% 70%
    Dew point 3°C 1°C 4°C 3°C 2°C 3°C 6°C 6°C 5°C 4°C 4°C 4°C 2°C 2°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Ferny Creek Rain Forecast


    Ferny Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    HIGH
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    HIGH
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    31
    MEDIUM
    Sep 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 4

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 August to 20 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 7 September to 11 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, and 17 August to 21 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 August to 17 August, 18 August to 22 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Ferny Creek Rain Forecast


    Ferny Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    4
    6
    6
    7
    7
    6
    7
    5
    5
    3
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 17

    ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral to positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific have continued to exhibit some cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1 in June. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.6 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds during spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 55:50 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Three of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becomingestablished during the Austral winter or early spring, with the remaining three indicating a neutral phase. Of the three neutral models, two are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, while one model (BoM’s outlook) is trending positive. The BoM model does trend to neither positive or negative by late spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook continues to favour below average rainfall during July, except for NSW and Qld east of the divide where there are indications of above average rainfall. The below average rainfall forecast for July is driven by the breakdown of what was likely to be a negative IOD until a late season tropical cyclone (Mangga) cooled waters off the northwest coast. The above average rainfall forecast for eastern NSW and Qld is driven by the likelihood of coastal troughs, rainfall in the wake of cold fronts and moist trade winds in the northeast. Models then suggest above average rainfall for most of the easterntwo-thirds of the country, and central western and inland southern WA, for late winter and early spring. Southeast SA, much of Victoria, western and central Tasmania and southwest WA are not showing any signals of above or below average rainfall during this period, most likely due to a trending positive SAM. The SAM has been mainly negative in June and early July. The northern Australian dry season is continuing, with northern WA likely to see less rainfall than northern NT and QLD due to dry winds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Ferny Creek Rain Forecast


    Ferny Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    HIGH
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    HIGH
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    31
    MEDIUM
    Sep 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 4

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 August to 20 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 7 September to 11 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, and 17 August to 21 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 August to 17 August, 18 August to 22 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Ferny Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Jul 31
    4.3 °C 12.0 °C
    0.2 mm
    Saturday
    Aug 01
    6.6 °C 12.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Aug 02
    7.5 °C 14.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Aug 03
    5.7 °C 11.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Aug 04
    0.7 °C 4.1 °C
    6.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Ferny Creek minimum temp history (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 18.0° 02/08/2020 Coldest this month 3.3° 04/08/2020
    Hottest on record 24.3 27/08/2007 Coldest on record -2.3 04/08/1997
    Hottest this year 42.2° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year -0.2° 28/06/2020
    Long term average 14.4° Long term average 6.5°
    Average this month 14.3° Average this month 6.0°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 16.8° 1982 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 5.1° 1966
    Ferny Creek rainfall history (37.8813°S, 145.3423°E, 501m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 1.6mm 04/08/2020 Total This Month 1.6mm
    1.0 days
    Long Term Average 79.8mm 18.6 days Wettest August on record 168.0mm 1975
    Driest on record 20.0mm 1987
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Ferny Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 536.8mm 113.9 day(s)
    Total For 2020 725.6mm 100.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 359.2mm 88.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 49.6mm Mar 5
    Lowest Temperature -0.2°C Jun28
    Highest Temperature 42.2°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Ferny Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.3 26.8 24.3 20.2 16.5 13.7 13.1 14.4 16.6 19.3 21.7 24.2 19.7
    Mean Min (°C) 13.6 14.1 12.7 10.2 8.4 6.5 6.0 6.5 7.8 8.9 10.6 12.1 9.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 52.4 53.5 52.8 67.4 87.4 70.3 73.2 79.8 84.4 84.5 81.0 73.5 860.4
    Mean Rain Days 8.7 7.8 10.3 13.0 17.3 18.5 19.7 18.6 16.3 15.5 13.6 11.1 166.0