Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for Damaging Winds
for parts of Central, East Gippsland, South West, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland, Northern Country and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:40 am Sunday, 3 November 2024.
Damaging winds occurring over elevated areas of Victoria.
Weather Situation
Strengthening north to northwesterly winds ahead of a cold front which is crossing the state this morning and early afternoon.
DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Central, East Gippsland, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera
DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 100km/h are occurring over the Grampians and central and eastern areas, mainly above 600 metres elevation but extending to lower elevations immediately lee of the ranges, including some outer northern suburbs of Melbourne.
For exposed mountain peaks above 1000 metres elevation: DAMAGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, averaging 70 to 80 km/h with peak gusts of around 110km/h are occurring this morning, and expected to persist into the early afternoon over the east.
Winds are expected to ease below warning thresholds over western and central parts, including Melbourne, by mid morning, and over the eastern ranges the early afternoon.
Locations which may be affected include Castlemaine, Kyneton, Bacchus Marsh, Warragul, Moe and Falls Creek.
A 118 km/h wind gust was recorded at Mount William at 1:30am.
A 94 km/h wind gust was recorded at Mount Hotham at 4:27am.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Stay indoors and away from windows.
* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 am AEDT Sunday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Bullarook (37.5435°S, 143.981°E, 563m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY13° 21° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:48am EDT 6:16am EDT 8:01pm EDT 8:30pm EDT NOW13.7° Feels Like: 9.1° Relative Humidity: 44% Dew: 1.7° Wind: NW 15km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1006.3hPa -
Today Weather
BullarookNow20.2°cFeels Like:11.5°Wind:NW 33km/hGusts:41km/hHumidity:23%13°Min21°MaxToday in BullarookPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the E suburbs, slight chance elsewhere. Damaging winds possible this morning. Winds N/NW 30 to 45 km/h turning W/SW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then tending SE/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.Tomorrow7°Min18°MaxCloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then turning S/SE in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 20. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
- Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds) Central, East Gippsland, South West, North Central, North East, W & S Gippsland, N Country & Wimmera
- Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds) Central, East Gippsland, South West, North Central, North East, W & S Gippsland, N Country & Wimmera
- Cancellation of Sheep Graziers Warning for North Central, North East, South West and Central
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the E suburbs, slight chance elsewhere. Damaging winds possible this morning. Winds N/NW 30 to 45 km/h turning W/SW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then tending SE/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Forecast for Bullarook (37.5435°S, 143.981°E, 563m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary Minimum 13° 7° 5° 12° 10° 9° 6° Maximum 21° 18° 25° 31° 20° 19° 20° Chance of rain 10% 20% 5% 50% 60% 50% 10% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate High No Rating - - Frost risk Nil Nil Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 25
(km/h)21
(km/h)17
(km/h)18
(km/h)14
(km/h)18
(km/h)34
(km/h)27
(km/h)16
(km/h)17
(km/h)25
(km/h)27
(km/h)16
(km/h)21
(km/h)Wind direction WSW WSW WSW WSW NNE N NNE NNW SW WNW WNW W W WSW Relative humidity 69% 39% 75% 50% 64% 36% 48% 33% 80% 51% 77% 50% 71% 42% Dew point 10°C 6°C 7°C 7°C 7°C 8°C 7°C 12°C 10°C 9°C 9°C 7°C 7°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bullarook Rain Forecast
Bullarook 12-month Rainfall ForecastNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep2024202578877537434105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Oct 1
ENSO status: La Niña Watch. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Negative. Trending slightly negative. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña Watch, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of a La Niña developing this year. Overall, models are now starting to look more like La Niña, with more widespread ocean cooling occurring in the South Pacific, helped by the consistently strong trade winds. While these are good signs that La Niña is starting to develop, a declaration would likely happen no earlier than November, meaning this is more likely to be a late and weaker event if it does eventuate. A La Niña typically increases rainfall over northern and southeastern Australia during spring, but has little effect for southwestern WA. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is now unlikely to develop into either phase this spring. Conditions are closer to a negative IOD at the moment, so there may be some minor increases in the frequency of northwest cloudbands impactingAustralia. A neutral IOD tends to bring a small increase in spring rainfall for southwest WA, but has little effect elsewhere. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a negative phase, continuing on from the initial sudden Stratospheric Warming (SW) events over Antarctica since mid-July. These events increase the chances of negative SAM events, but are having a lesser effect moving forward in October. A negative SAM increases the frequency of cold fronts. During spring, this increases rainfall over western Tas and southern Vic, but decreases rainfall over eastern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are showing close to average for most of the country during October, with a higher chance of above average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, increasing further into November and December. Models are also hinting that rainfall is more likely to arrive in the form of showers and thunderstorms, rather than broad rainbands, meaning rainfall in practice will likely be hit-and-miss for most of Australia thisspring.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Bullarook Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Tuesday
Oct 295.4 °C 18.5 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Oct 307.4 °C 21.9 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Oct 318.5 °C 18.0 °C 0.2 mmFriday
Nov 016.4 °C 16.0 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Nov 022.0 °C 22.7 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bullarook minimum temp history (37.5435°S, 143.981°E, 563m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 22.5° 02/11/2024 Coldest this month 2.0° 02/11/2024 Hottest on record 37.3 24/11/1982 Coldest on record -1.0 01/11/1991 Hottest this year 36.9° 09/03/2024 Coldest this year -3.6° 19/06/2024 Long term average 19.9° Long term average 8.0° Average this month 19.3° Average this month 4.2° Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.1° 2009 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 5.4° 1991 Bullarook rainfall history (37.5435°S, 143.981°E, 563m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/11/2024 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 56.0mm 12.7 days Wettest November on record 131.1mm 1978 Driest on record 7.4mm 1911 -
Year to Date
Bullarook Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Nov 634.2mm 157.5 day(s) Total For 2024 394.8mm 154.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 447.2mm 168.0 day(s) Wettest Day 46.8mm Apr 2 Lowest Temperature -3.6°C Jun19 Highest Temperature 36.9°C Mar 9 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Bullarook Climatology
Bullarook Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 25.6 25.4 22.6 18.2 13.9 11.1 10.3 11.7 13.9 16.9 19.9 22.9 17.7 Mean Min (°C) 11.4 11.6 10.1 7.5 5.6 3.9 3.1 3.5 4.7 6.2 8.0 9.6 7.1 Mean Rain (mm) 40.2 42.2 41.5 51.4 63.9 62.6 66.1 73.0 70.4 66.9 56.0 50.1 685.0 Mean Rain Days 7.7 7.1 9.5 12.7 16.8 18.5 20.3 19.8 16.9 15.5 12.7 10.9 168.0