Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday 15 November 2024
for the period until midnight EDT Saturday 16 November 2024
Wind Warnings for Saturday 16 November
Gale Warning for the following areas:
East of Flinders Island, Upper East Coast, Lower East Coast and South East Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bay, Storm Bay, Channel, Far North West Coast, Central North Coast, Banks Strait and Franklin Sound, South West Coast and Central West Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Friday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Low Head (41.0663°S, 146.8006°E, 15m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY11° 17° mostly cloudy Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:13am EDT 5:45am EDT 8:11pm EDT 8:42pm EDT NOW16.8° Feels Like: 12.9° Relative Humidity: 65% Dew: 10.2° Wind: E 20km/h Gust: 30km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1022.6hPa -
Today Weather
Low HeadNow16.6°cFeels Like:13.4°Wind:N 17km/hGusts:20km/hHumidity:65%11°Min17°MaxToday in Low HeadCloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Winds SE 15 to 20 km/h turning E/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures around 17.Tomorrow12°Min19°MaxCloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Winds NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending E/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching the low 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Winds SE 15 to 20 km/h turning E/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures around 17.
Forecast for Low Head (41.0663°S, 146.8006°E, 15m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 11° 12° 15° 12° 9° 10° 10° Maximum 17° 19° 18° 17° 16° 18° 17° Chance of rain 30% 50% 90% 20% 10% 5% 10% Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 16
(km/h)23
(km/h)22
(km/h)21
(km/h)21
(km/h)39
(km/h)33
(km/h)28
(km/h)11
(km/h)18
(km/h)14
(km/h)15
(km/h)16
(km/h)21
(km/h)Wind direction SE ENE E ENE NNE WNW W W SSE NNW SE NNE E NE Relative humidity 67% 64% 86% 80% 85% 78% 67% 56% 66% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% Dew point 7°C 10°C 13°C 15°C 16°C 12°C 8°C 8°C 7°C 9°C 8°C 11°C 7°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Low Head Rain Forecast
Low Head 12-month Rainfall ForecastNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct20242025658665665665105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Oct 1
ENSO status: La Niña Watch. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Negative. Trending slightly negative. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña Watch, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of a La Niña developing this year. Overall, models are now starting to look more like La Niña, with more widespread ocean cooling occurring in the South Pacific, helped by the consistently strong trade winds. While these are good signs that La Niña is starting to develop, a declaration would likely happen no earlier than November, meaning this is more likely to be a late and weaker event if it does eventuate. A La Niña typically increases rainfall over northern and southeastern Australia during spring, but has little effect for southwestern WA. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is now unlikely to develop into either phase this spring. Conditions are closer to a negative IOD at the moment, so there may be some minor increases in the frequency of northwest cloudbands impactingAustralia. A neutral IOD tends to bring a small increase in spring rainfall for southwest WA, but has little effect elsewhere. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a negative phase, continuing on from the initial sudden Stratospheric Warming (SW) events over Antarctica since mid-July. These events increase the chances of negative SAM events, but are having a lesser effect moving forward in October. A negative SAM increases the frequency of cold fronts. During spring, this increases rainfall over western Tas and southern Vic, but decreases rainfall over eastern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are showing close to average for most of the country during October, with a higher chance of above average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, increasing further into November and December. Models are also hinting that rainfall is more likely to arrive in the form of showers and thunderstorms, rather than broad rainbands, meaning rainfall in practice will likely be hit-and-miss for most of Australia thisspring.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Low Head Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Nov 1110.8 °C 17.6 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Nov 128.0 °C 20.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Nov 1312.4 °C 19.1 °C 0.4 mmThursday
Nov 1412.2 °C 18.3 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Nov 1511.6 °C 17.9 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Low Head minimum temp history (41.0663°S, 146.8006°E, 15m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 20.0° 12/11/2024 Coldest this month 6.1° 02/11/2024 Hottest on record 24.6 19/11/2009 Coldest on record 5.1 01/11/1998 Hottest this year 26.7° 03/01/2024 Coldest this year 1.6° 02/07/2024 Long term average 17.5° Long term average 11.4° Average this month 17.5° Average this month 10.9° Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.0° 2000 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 9.8° 1998 Low Head rainfall history (41.0663°S, 146.8006°E, 15m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.4mm 08/11/2024 Total This Month 1.2mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 50.7mm 9.6 days Wettest November on record 124.2mm 2011 Driest on record 6.6mm 2017 -
Year to Date
Low Head Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Nov 632.3mm 130.2 day(s) Total For 2024 610.6mm 120.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 457.8mm 115.0 day(s) Wettest Day 39.4mm Apr 2 Lowest Temperature 1.6°C Jul 2 Highest Temperature 26.7°C Jan 3 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Low Head Climatology
Low Head Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 20.7 21.1 20.1 17.8 15.4 13.5 12.8 13.1 14.1 15.5 17.5 19.0 16.7 Mean Min (°C) 14.5 14.6 13.4 11.2 9.4 7.4 7.0 7.4 8.5 9.6 11.4 12.9 10.6 Mean Rain (mm) 49.1 27.9 50.6 55.6 61.4 75.2 74.2 76.6 57.3 53.7 50.7 42.5 670.6 Mean Rain Days 7.0 6.7 8.0 10.1 13.2 14.9 17.1 16.6 15.0 12.0 9.6 8.7 138.3