Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Tasmania
This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.
Initial Flood Watch For North East, South East And Huon Catchments
Issued at 01:57 PM EST on Friday 12 August 2022
By the Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart.
Flood Watch Number: 1
MINOR FLOODING LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
A low pressure system will move over Victoria on Saturday and lie to the northeast of Tasmania by Saturday night. The low is expected to slowly move over northeastern Tasmania during Sunday and direct widespread rainfall over eastern and southern Tasmania. The low will remain over or near eastern Tasmania on Monday with rain tending to showers.
Catchments are relatively wet across the flood watch area and rivers will be responsive to rainfall.
Widespread 24 hour rainfall totals of 30-50 mm are likely across the flood watch area during Sunday, with isolated higher totals possible.
Minor flooding is likely to develop from Sunday for the flood watch area.
Catchments likely to be affected include:
North Esk River
South Esk River
Macquarie River
East Coastal Rivers (north of Bicheno)
Ringarooma River
North Coastal Rivers
Huon River
Jordan River
Coal River
East Coastal Rivers (south of Bicheno)
South East
Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning. The Bureau of Meteorology does not provide a flood warning service for all of the catchments covered by this flood watch. For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml
For the latest warnings see www.bom.gov.au/tas/warnings
For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood
For the latest weather forecast see www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts
Flood Safety Advice:
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.
For life threatening situations, call 000 immediately.
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.tas.gov.au
Road closure information is available at www.police.tas.gov.au}
Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 12:00 pm EST on Saturday 13 August 2022.
Forecast
Launceston (41.4403°S, 147.1394°E, 13m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW3° 16° possible shower Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:37am EST 7:06am EST 5:27pm EST 5:56pm EST NOW5.6° Feels Like: 4.1° Relative Humidity: 96% Dew: 5.0° Wind: S 2km/h Gust: 6km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.4mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
LauncestonNow6.2°cFeels Like:3.4°Wind:S 9km/hGusts:11km/hHumidity:95%3°Min16°MaxToday in LauncestonPartly cloudy. The chance of morning fog. Slight chance of a shower, most likely at night. Light winds becoming S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 3 with daytime temperatures reaching around 14.Tomorrow3°Min16°MaxCloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds S 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 6 with daytime temperatures reaching around 14. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog. Slight chance of a shower, most likely at night. Light winds becoming S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 3 with daytime temperatures reaching around 14.
Forecast for Launceston (41.4403°S, 147.1394°E, 13m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 3° 7° 6° 5° 3° 6° 2° Maximum 16° 16° 16° 17° 15° 15° 13° Chance of rain 90% 80% 60% 30% 90% 70% 90% Likely amount 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm 5-10mm 10-20mm 5-10mm UV index Low Low Low Low - - - Frost risk Moderate Nil Nil Slight Moderate Nil Moderate 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 7
(km/h)15
(km/h)19
(km/h)20
(km/h)8
(km/h)13
(km/h)3
(km/h)13
(km/h)5
(km/h)19
(km/h)12
(km/h)18
(km/h)13
(km/h)20
(km/h)Wind direction SSE S S S S SSW WSW SW NNE NNW NNW NNW NNW NNW Relative humidity 92% 62% 93% 75% 94% 73% 91% 58% 87% 69% 95% 69% 91% 67% Dew point 6°C 8°C 9°C 10°C 8°C 10°C 7°C 8°C 5°C 9°C 8°C 8°C 5°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Launceston Rain Forecast
Launceston 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
LOW13
HIGH14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
17
HIGH18
MEDIUM19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Launceston Rain Forecast
Launceston 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20222023856778682565105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 2
ENSO status: Neutral, However, some models suggest La Niña may re-form in spring. IOD status: Negative, all models suggest this event will continue until late spring. SAM status: Neutral, neutral to positive levels are forecast in August The 2021-22 La Nina event has ended according to BOM, however two out of seven models suggest a return of La Nina in late winter, with four in October and five in November. Even though this event officially has ended, a La Nina-like pattern is likely to persist for the remainder of 2022. However, new data released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre continues to point towards the prospect of a third consecutive La Niña later this year. Their predictions give La Niña a 62 percent chance of occurring by early spring and a 65 to 66 percent chance in late spring and early summer.Looking further ahead, the majority of forecast models predict that the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean should break down towards the end of summer, most likely returning to a neutral state early in 2023. The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a negative IOD event is underway to the northwest of Australia. This declaration comes after sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have remained near or exceeded the negative IOD threshold for the last eight weeks. This is now the 2nd consecutive year to be declared a negative IOD year, following a relatively weak event in 2021. This is the first time we have seen two consecutive negative IOD years since reliable records of the IOD began in 1960. Unlike last year’s event, this year’s negative IOD is expected to be strong and last through the remainder of winter and spring. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter and spring rainfall and cloud across parts of southern Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except drier than average conditions are forecast in southwest WA and parts of TAS. During spring much of Australia isforecast to average to above average. Early indications of summer rainfall look average to above average for much of Australia, except TAS which looks drier. The negative IOD could increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia. With two La Niña seasons already in the bag and the prospect of a third La Niña now a looming possibility, this is likely to have a compounding effect that may exacerbate the impacts we normally see in Australia. So, while individual La Niña events usually cause more rain and flooding in northern and eastern Australia, any La Niña-fuelled rainfall this year will be falling onto already saturated ground and into full dams. This makes flooding a heightened risk, especially for areas that just had a wet summer and autumn.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Launceston Rain Forecast
Launceston 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
LOW13
HIGH14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
17
HIGH18
MEDIUM19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Launceston Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Aug 080.5 °C 13.9 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Aug 09-0.7 °C 13.6 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Aug 10-1.6 °C 12.3 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Aug 111.3 °C 14.7 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Aug 125.3 °C 16.2 °C 7.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Launceston minimum temp history (41.4403°S, 147.1394°E, 13m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 16.2° 12/08/2022 Coldest this month -1.6° 10/08/2022 Hottest on record 20.3 26/08/2004 Coldest on record -3.5 01/08/1997 Hottest this year 32.4° 01/01/2022 Coldest this year -3.9° 14/06/2022 Long term average 13.8° Long term average 3.5° Average this month 14.0° Average this month 4.0° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 15.1° 1982 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 1.7° 2008 Launceston rainfall history (41.4403°S, 147.1394°E, 13m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 15.0mm 04/08/2022 Total This Month 47.2mm
7.0 daysLong Term Average 84.0mm 16.3 days Wettest August on record 223.0mm 2013 Driest on record 14.9mm 1982 -
Year to Date
Launceston Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 465.2mm 87.8 day(s) Total For 2022 394.8mm 87.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2021 426.8mm 88.0 day(s) Wettest Day 41.8mm Apr30 Lowest Temperature -3.9°C Jun14 Highest Temperature 32.4°C Jan 1 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Launceston Climatology
Launceston Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.7 24.6 22.8 19.1 15.8 13.2 12.7 13.8 15.8 18.1 20.7 22.7 18.6 Mean Min (°C) 12.5 12.3 10.4 7.7 5.2 2.9 2.4 3.5 5.3 7.0 9.2 10.8 7.4 Mean Rain (mm) 44.7 32.1 40.8 52.0 64.3 67.5 79.8 84.0 64.1 52.4 51.2 47.9 680.2 Mean Rain Days 7.1 6.2 6.8 9.2 12.3 13.9 16.0 16.3 14.1 11.4 9.9 8.4 131.2