Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Frost Warning
for Central North, Midlands and Upper Derwent Valley forecast districts
Issued at 10:00 PM EST on Sunday 22 May 2022
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Please be aware
Temperatures at ground level can be many degrees lower than those
recorded by standard weather stations, especially in calm conditions with clear
skies.
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Frost Warning for the following areas:
Central North, Midlands and Upper Derwent Valley forecast districts
Frosts with temperatures down to -2 degrees are forecast for Monday morning in parts of the Central North, Midlands and Upper Derwent Valley forecast districts
No further warnings will be issued for this event.
Forecast
Launceston (41.4403°S, 147.1394°E, 13m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY1° 15° frost then sunny Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:50am EST 7:20am EST 4:56pm EST 5:26pm EST NOW0.5° Feels Like: -1.9° Relative Humidity: 96% Dew: 0.0° Wind: E 2km/h Gust: 4km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
LauncestonNow0.0°cFeels Like:-4.2°Wind:S 11km/hGusts:11km/hHumidity:98%1°Min15°MaxToday in LauncestonMostly sunny. Areas of morning frost. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures between 12 and 15.Tomorrow1°Min15°MaxThe chance of fog and frost in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 1 and 3 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 15. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Areas of morning frost. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures between 12 and 15.
Forecast for Launceston (41.4403°S, 147.1394°E, 13m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 1° 1° 1° 7° 8° 6° 3° Maximum 15° 15° 16° 18° 16° 14° 14° Chance of rain 5% 5% 10% 70% 70% 30% 50% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Low Low Low Low Low - - Frost risk High High High Nil Nil Nil Moderate 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 2
(km/h)6
(km/h)3
(km/h)5
(km/h)3
(km/h)7
(km/h)5
(km/h)10
(km/h)6
(km/h)10
(km/h)3
(km/h)9
(km/h)4
(km/h)10
(km/h)Wind direction SE NW SSE NNW SE N ESE NNE N NNW NW NW SSE NW Relative humidity 89% 61% 91% 62% 91% 69% 92% 73% 96% 79% 92% 66% 93% 74% Dew point 2°C 6°C 4°C 7°C 5°C 10°C 9°C 12°C 11°C 12°C 8°C 7°C 6°C 9°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Launceston Rain Forecast
Launceston 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT23
24
25
HIGH26
HIGH27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJun 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
6
LOW7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
MEDIUM10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
MEDIUM20
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 6 June to 10 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 May to 28 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Launceston Rain Forecast
Launceston 12-month Rainfall ForecastMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr20222023776868777464105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued May 11
ENSO status: La Niña, it is expected return to neutral state by early winter. IOD status: Neutral, models suggest it could enter a negative phase in the next month. SAM status: Positive and is expected to remain positive for the next month or so. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña phase and has not changed in strength during the past two weeks. La Niña events typically breaks down in autumn and while this current La Niña is persisting longer than usual, most models suggest it should end by early winter. However, one seasonal model operated by the U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) suggests that a La Niña-like signal could linger in the Pacific Ocean through the middle of the year and possibly remerge in the Southern Hemisphere’s spring. That being said, it is important to note that seasonal forecast models have lower accuracy at this time of year. This is called the autumn predictability barrier. The La Niña forecast will increase the likelihood of above-average rain in northern and eastern Australia during the remainder of Autumn, possibly into winter. Even as La Niña weakens it should continue to influence our climate. all five climate models suggest a negative phase will begin during late autumn or early winter. Climate models are forecasting strong negative IOD values by August, with the negative IOD event possibly lingering into spring. While a neutral IOD has little influence on our climate, a negative IOD increases the chance of above average autumn and winter rain for much of Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except southwest WA, parts of TAS and VIC. If a negative IOD does develop this winter, it will increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia, especially areas that had a wet summer and autumn.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Launceston Rain Forecast
Launceston 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT23
24
25
HIGH26
HIGH27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJun 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
6
LOW7
LOW8
MEDIUM9
MEDIUM10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
MEDIUM20
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 6 June to 10 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 May to 28 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Launceston Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
May 186.5 °C 15.5 °C 0.0 mmThursday
May 190.5 °C 16.8 °C 0.2 mmFriday
May 20-0.3 °C 15.5 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
May 212.9 °C 15.9 °C 0.0 mmSunday
May 222.6 °C 13.9 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Launceston minimum temp history (41.4403°S, 147.1394°E, 13m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 21.4° 13/05/2022 Coldest this month -0.3° 20/05/2022 Hottest on record 23.5 03/05/1988 Coldest on record -3.0 18/05/1981 Hottest this year 32.4° 01/01/2022 Coldest this year -0.3° 20/05/2022 Long term average 15.8° Long term average 5.1° Average this month 17.0° Average this month 6.8° Hottest May On Record Avg. max. temp. 17.0° 1988 Coldest May on record Avg. min. temp. 2.6° 2006 Launceston rainfall history (41.4403°S, 147.1394°E, 13m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 10.0mm 16/05/2022 Total This Month 30.8mm
11.0 daysLong Term Average 64.8mm 12.3 days Wettest May on record 152.9mm 2007 Driest on record 4.0mm 2005 -
Year to Date
Launceston Year To Date
Average Rainfall To May 234.4mm 41.6 day(s) Total For 2022 213.0mm 42.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2021 175.2mm 38.0 day(s) Wettest Day 41.8mm Apr30 Lowest Temperature -0.3°C May20 Highest Temperature 32.4°C Jan 1 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Launceston Climatology
Launceston Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.7 24.6 22.8 19.1 15.8 13.2 12.7 13.8 15.8 18.1 20.7 22.7 18.6 Mean Min (°C) 12.5 12.3 10.4 7.7 5.1 2.9 2.4 3.5 5.3 7.0 9.2 10.8 7.4 Mean Rain (mm) 44.7 32.1 40.8 52.0 64.8 66.9 79.8 84.0 64.1 52.4 51.2 47.9 680.2 Mean Rain Days 7.1 6.2 6.8 9.2 12.3 13.8 16.0 16.3 14.1 11.4 9.9 8.4 131.2