Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for North West Coast, Upper Derwent Valley and South East forecast districts
Issued at 04:45 PM EST on Tuesday 17 September 2024
Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
North West Coast, Upper Derwent Valley and South East forecast districts
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and strong westerly winds are expected during Wednesday. Areas likely to be affected include parts of the North West Coast, Upper Derwent Valley and South East forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday.
Forecast
Hobart (42.8827°S, 147.3302°E, 4m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW9° 15° windy with rain Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:39am EST 6:07am EST 6:03pm EST 6:32pm EST NOW11.9° Feels Like: 7.0° Relative Humidity: 52% Dew: 2.4° Wind: N 17km/h Gust: 41km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1009.1hPa -
Today Weather
HobartNow11.8°cFeels Like:4.9°Wind:NW 28km/hGusts:35km/hHumidity:55%9°Min15°MaxToday in HobartCloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 500 metres. Possible small hail in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW 45 to 65 km/h decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the morning then tending W 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 15.Tomorrow9°Min15°MaxCloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 400 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the far S. Possible small hail. Winds W/NW 35 to 55 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 14. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 500 metres. Possible small hail in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW 45 to 65 km/h decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the morning then tending W 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 15.
Forecast for Hobart (42.8827°S, 147.3302°E, 4m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 9° 5° 5° 8° 6° 8° 9° Maximum 15° 13° 13° 14° 13° 17° 18° Chance of rain 90% 70% 40% 60% 60% 40% 90% Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Slight Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 40
(km/h)29
(km/h)26
(km/h)34
(km/h)25
(km/h)29
(km/h)23
(km/h)29
(km/h)30
(km/h)32
(km/h)25
(km/h)26
(km/h)20
(km/h)24
(km/h)Wind direction WNW W NNW WNW NW NW WNW NW WNW WNW NW NW N NNW Relative humidity 60% 58% 62% 61% 59% 55% 60% 50% 57% 44% 62% 52% 59% 47% Dew point 6°C 4°C 2°C 2°C 1°C 3°C 3°C 2°C 1°C 0°C 5°C 6°C 6°C 5°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Hobart Rain Forecast
Hobart 12-month Rainfall ForecastSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug20242025876777742837105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Sep 9
ENSO status: La Niña Watch. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral. Favouring negative. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña Watch, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of a La Niña developing this year. Overall, models are now starting to look more like La Niña, with more widespread ocean cooling occurring in the South Pacific, and the 30-day SOI now above +7. While these are good signs that La Nina is starting to develop, a declaration would likely happen no earlier than November, meaning this is more likely to be a late and weaker event if it does eventuate. A La Niña typically increases rainfall over northern and southeastern Australia during spring, but has little effect for southwestern WA. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is now unlikely to develop into either phase this spring. Conditions are closer to a positive IOD than to a negative phase, so there may be some minor reductions in the frequency of northwest cloudbands impacting Australia. A neutral IOD tends to bring a small increase in spring rainfall for southwest WA, but has little effect elsewhere. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is now neutral, having recovered from the initial sudden Stratospheric Warming (SW) event over Antarctica in mid-July. However, another SW event is occurring in mid September that may further dampen the polar vortex. These events increase the chances of negative SAM events during September and October. A negative SAM increases the frequency of cold fronts. During spring, this increases rainfall over western Tas and southern Vic, but decreases rainfall over eastern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are showing close to average for most of the country during September and October, with a higher chance of above average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia from November. Models are also hinting that rainfall is more likely to arrive in the form of showers and thunderstorms, rather than broad rainbands, meaning rainfall in practice will likely be hit-and-missfor most of Australia this spring.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Hobart Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Sep 139.0 °C 14.3 °C 1.6 mmSaturday
Sep 145.2 °C 9.9 °C 0.4 mmSunday
Sep 154.0 °C 13.4 °C 7.2 mmMonday
Sep 167.3 °C 14.7 °C 2.2 mmTuesday
Sep 178.5 °C 15.0 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Hobart minimum temp history (42.8827°S, 147.3302°E, 4m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 21.5° 05/09/2024 Coldest this month 3.5° 12/09/2024 Hottest on record 31.0 27/09/1987 Coldest on record -0.8 16/09/1897 Hottest this year 35.5° 22/02/2024 Coldest this year 0.9° 05/07/2024 Long term average 15.2° Long term average 6.5° Average this month 15.5° Average this month 7.9° Hottest September On Record Avg. max. temp. 17.9° 2014 Coldest September on record Avg. min. temp. 4.1° 1905 Hobart rainfall history (42.8827°S, 147.3302°E, 4m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 19.2mm 02/09/2024 Total This Month 66.8mm
13.0 daysLong Term Average 52.7mm 15.2 days Wettest September on record 201.6mm 1957 Driest on record 10.0mm 1951 -
Year to Date
Hobart Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Sep 437.3mm 119.2 day(s) Total For 2024 397.8mm 102.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 268.2mm 96.0 day(s) Wettest Day 32.4mm Jul15 Lowest Temperature 0.9°C Jul 5 Highest Temperature 35.5°C Feb22 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Hobart Climatology
Hobart Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.8 21.7 20.2 17.4 14.6 12.1 11.9 13.2 15.2 17.0 18.8 20.4 17.0 Mean Min (°C) 12.1 12.1 11.0 9.1 7.0 5.2 4.7 5.2 6.5 7.8 9.4 10.9 8.4 Mean Rain (mm) 44.6 39.6 44.6 50.7 46.3 52.5 52.1 54.2 52.7 62.8 53.0 56.2 609.5 Mean Rain Days 10.5 9.2 11.3 12.4 13.9 14.9 15.9 15.9 15.2 16.1 14.1 12.7 162.3