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Forecast

Cape Grim (40.6822°S, 144.6883°E, 94m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Thunderstorms
    Chance of rain: 60%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:55am EST 7:24am EST 5:31pm EST 6:00pm EST
    NOW
    3.2° Feels Like: -1.4°
    Relative Humidity: 93%
    Dew: 2.2°
    Wind: SW 15km/h
    Gust: 37km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 8.0mm
    Pressure: 1007.1hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Cape Grim
    Now
    0.6°c
    Feels Like:
    -2.2°
    Wind:
    NW 4km/h
    Gusts:
    11km/h
    Humidity:
    94%
    Thunderstorms
     
    Min
    Max
    Today in Cape Grim
    Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost. Medium chance of light showers, most likely this evening. Snow possible above 200 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the far west during the morning and afternoon. Possible hail. Light winds becoming S/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures between 5 and 9.
    Tomorrow
    Clearing shower
    Min
    11°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the far west, slight chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 800 metres. Winds S/SW 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 11.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost. Medium chance of light showers, most likely this evening. Snow possible above 200 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the far west during the morning and afternoon. Possible hail. Light winds becoming S/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures between 5 and 9.

    Forecast for Cape Grim (40.6822°S, 144.6883°E, 94m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Thunderstorms Clearing shower Mostly sunny Mostly cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly cloudy
    Minimum
    Maximum 11° 12° 11° 12° 12° 11°
    Chance of rain 60% 40% 5% 5% 5% 20% 40%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low Low - -
    Frost risk Moderate Nil Nil Moderate Slight Slight Slight
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 23
    (km/h)
    37
    (km/h)
    44
    (km/h)
    45
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SSW SSW SW SW SSW SSW SE E ESE ESE SSE S SSW SSW
    Relative humidity 81% 63% 74% 65% 76% 66% 79% 65% 75% 63% 80% 64% 80% 67%
    Dew point 1°C 0°C 3°C 3°C 4°C 4°C 3°C 4°C 3°C 4°C 3°C 4°C 4°C 4°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Cape Grim Rain Forecast


    Cape Grim 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    HIGH
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    HIGH
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    31
    LOW
    Sep 1
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 August to 21 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August, 22 August to 26 August, and 28 August to 1 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Cape Grim Rain Forecast


    Cape Grim 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    4
    5
    7
    7
    6
    7
    2
    10
    4
    5
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 17

    ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral to positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific have continued to exhibit some cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1 in June. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.6 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds during spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 55:50 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Three of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becomingestablished during the Austral winter or early spring, with the remaining three indicating a neutral phase. Of the three neutral models, two are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, while one model (BoM’s outlook) is trending positive. The BoM model does trend to neither positive or negative by late spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook continues to favour below average rainfall during July, except for NSW and Qld east of the divide where there are indications of above average rainfall. The below average rainfall forecast for July is driven by the breakdown of what was likely to be a negative IOD until a late season tropical cyclone (Mangga) cooled waters off the northwest coast. The above average rainfall forecast for eastern NSW and Qld is driven by the likelihood of coastal troughs, rainfall in the wake of cold fronts and moist trade winds in the northeast. Models then suggest above average rainfall for most of the easterntwo-thirds of the country, and central western and inland southern WA, for late winter and early spring. Southeast SA, much of Victoria, western and central Tasmania and southwest WA are not showing any signals of above or below average rainfall during this period, most likely due to a trending positive SAM. The SAM has been mainly negative in June and early July. The northern Australian dry season is continuing, with northern WA likely to see less rainfall than northern NT and QLD due to dry winds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Cape Grim Rain Forecast


    Cape Grim 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    HIGH
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    HIGH
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    31
    LOW
    Sep 1
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 August to 21 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August, 22 August to 26 August, and 28 August to 1 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Cape Grim Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Jul 30
    10.0 °C 13.6 °C
    2.4 mm
    Friday
    Jul 31
    10.1 °C 14.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Aug 01
    9.2 °C 14.3 °C
    0.2 mm
    Sunday
    Aug 02
    9.4 °C 12.9 °C
    0.2 mm
    Monday
    Aug 03
    7.8 °C -
    10.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Cape Grim minimum temp history (40.6822°S, 144.6883°E, 94m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 14.3° 01/08/2020 Coldest this month 9.2° 01/08/2020
    Hottest on record 18.3 30/08/2007 Coldest on record 2.0 16/08/1998
    Hottest this year 27.3° 30/01/2020 Coldest this year 3.8° 15/07/2020
    Long term average 12.7° Long term average 8.2°
    Average this month 14.3° Average this month 9.3°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 13.6° 2011 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 6.5° 2015
    Cape Grim rainfall history (40.6822°S, 144.6883°E, 94m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.2mm 01/08/2020 Total This Month 0.4mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 101.3mm 23.8 days Wettest August on record 252.0mm 2013
    Driest on record 33.4mm 1987
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for TAS

  16. Year to Date

    Cape Grim Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 568.5mm 143.1 day(s)
    Total For 2020 510.4mm 145.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 533.6mm 128.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 27.0mm Jan23
    Lowest Temperature 3.8°C Jul15
    Highest Temperature 27.3°C Jan30
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Cape Grim Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 19.0 19.6 18.6 16.7 14.6 13.1 12.5 12.7 13.5 14.4 16.0 17.4 15.7
    Mean Min (°C) 13.2 13.8 12.9 11.5 10.2 8.8 8.2 8.2 8.6 9.2 10.6 11.9 10.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 38.8 34.3 49.0 65.0 84.8 85.2 110.1 101.3 79.4 62.8 54.7 47.4 810.6
    Mean Rain Days 11.1 10.2 14.2 17.6 21.1 21.5 23.6 23.8 21.9 18.7 14.2 13.4 195.9