Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland
Major Flood Warning For The Lower Barcoo River And Minor Flood Warning For The Cooper Creek
Issued at 01:39 PM EST on Sunday 01 March 2020
Flood Watch Number: 28
Major flooding is likely later this week at Retreat on the lower Barcoo River, whilst minor flooding is easing on the upper Barcoo River at Blackall. Renewed rises and minor flooding on the Cooper Creek at Windorah is likely during the next few days.
No significant rainfall is expected during Sunday or Monday, but showers, storms and rain areas associated with the movement of ex Tropical Cyclone Esther are forecast from late Tuesday, with moderate to heavy rainfall expected, particularly during late Wednesday and Thursday. This rainfall will cause significant renewed river level rises across the Cooper Creek catchment, and to a lesser extent across the Thomson and Barcoo catchments.
Thomson River:
Small river level rises are occurring during Sunday in the upper parts of the Thomson River catchment through to Longreach, following rainfall recorded mid last week. River levels downstream of Longreach through to Jundah remain below minor and continue to slowly ease.
The Thomson River at Longreach is currently at 1.74 metres (below minor) and rising very slowly.
There are no observations for the Stonehenge manual gauge. However based on the automatic gauge river levels should be below minor and steady.
River height observations are not available for the manual station at Jundah, however river levels are expected to remain steady below minor on Sunday.
Barcoo River to Isisford:
Minor flooding is generally easing along the Barcoo River between Blackall and Isisford during Sunday.
River height observations are not available for the manual station at Blackall. However, based on the automatic gauge minor flood levels have peaked during Sunday morning and have commenced to ease.
The Barcoo River at Blackall is likely to fall below the minor flood level (2.00 m) overnight Sunday into Monday.
The Barcoo River at Isisford peaked at 5.87 metres (moderate flood) around 12:30 pm Friday 28 February, and is currently at 4.67 metres (minor flood) and falling.
The Barcoo River at Isisford is likely to fall below the minor flood level (4.00 m) overnight Sunday into Monday.
Barcoo River downstream of Isisford:
Moderate flood levels are slowly rising towards a peak at Wahroongha, with river rises (below minor) also reaching Glenlock during Sunday.
River height observations are not available for the manual station at Retreat. However, based on the automatic gauge river levels are expected to be below the minor flood level (3.0 metres).
The Barcoo River at Retreat is expected to remain below the minor flood level (3.00 m) during Monday. Higher levels and major flooding is likely at Retreat later this week, however more detailed predictions will be made once upstream peaks have been recorded.
Cooper Creek:
Below minor flood levels are occurring on the Cooper Creek in the Windorah area during Sunday, however floodwaters will commence to rise again during the next few days from the Barcoo River.
The Cooper Creek at Windorah (Long Crossing) is currently at 2.76 metres (below minor) and falling.
The Cooper Creek at Windorah (Long Crossing) is likely to exceed the minor flood level (3.00 m) again during the next few days.
Flood Safety Advice:
Remember: If it's flooded, forget it. For flood emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500. For life threatening emergencies, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.}
Current emergency information is available at www.qld.gov.au/alerts
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 05:00 pm EST on Monday 02 March 2020.
Latest River Heights:
Cornish Ck at Bowen Downs TM,3.23,Steady,01:00 PM SUN 01/03/20
Thomson R at Longreach Auto TM,1.74,Steady,01:00 PM SUN 01/03/20
Thomson R at Bogewong TM,1.70,Steady,12:00 PM SUN 01/03/20
Barcoo R at Gillespie Alert,1.40,Steady,11:47 AM SUN 01/03/20
Barcoo R at Duneira Alert,1.00,Steady,01:29 PM SUN 01/03/20
Jordan R at Glencoe Alert,0.99,Steady,01:08 PM SUN 01/03/20
Barcoo R at Isisford,4.67,Falling,12:05 PM SUN 01/03/20
Barcoo R at Wahroongha,4.00,Rising,06:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Barcoo R at Glenlock,3.00,Rising,05:25 AM SUN 01/03/20
Cooper Ck at Windorah (Long Crossing) TM,2.76,Falling,12:00 PM SUN 01/03/20
Cooper Ck at Lignum Channel TM,0.09,Steady,12:00 PM SUN 01/03/20
Cooper Ck at Nappa Merrie TM,1.28,Steady,12:00 PM SUN 01/03/20
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts.
Forecast
Longreach (23.4405°S, 144.2503°E, 189m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW25° 38° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 5:56am EST 6:19am EST 6:51pm EST 7:13pm EST NOW36.0° Feels Like: 33.4° Relative Humidity: 29% Dew: 15.2° Wind: NE 22km/h Gust: 24km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1008.6hPa -
Today Weather
LongreachNow33.2°cFeels Like:33.3°Wind:ESE 9km/hGusts:11km/hHumidity:35%25°Min38°MaxToday in LongreachPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm west of Longreach in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming N 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 30s.Tomorrow25°Min38°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the southwest, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm west of Longreach. Winds N/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending NE/SE in the middle of the day then tending SE/SW in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching the mid 30s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm west of Longreach in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming N 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 30s.
Forecast for Longreach (23.4405°S, 144.2503°E, 189m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 25° 24° 25° 24° 24° 23° 22° Maximum 38° 37° 35° 34° 35° 36° 35° Chance of rain 5% 30% 70% 70% 90% 30% 30% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 25
(km/h)16
(km/h)23
(km/h)16
(km/h)30
(km/h)25
(km/h)25
(km/h)23
(km/h)14
(km/h)19
(km/h)21
(km/h)21
(km/h)18
(km/h)16
(km/h)Wind direction NNE NE NE ENE NE NE NNE NNW W SW SSE SSW SE SSW Relative humidity 55% 27% 51% 30% 62% 40% 74% 53% 76% 50% 67% 42% 61% 42% Dew point 21°C 16°C 19°C 17°C 21°C 20°C 23°C 23°C 24°C 24°C 22°C 22°C 19°C 21°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Longreach Rain Forecast
Longreach 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATMar 1
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LOW4
MEDIUM5
HIGH6
HIGH7
8
9
10
LOW11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
LOW15
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LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 1Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 March to 20 March, 26 March to 30 March, and 30 March to 3 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 March to 14 March, and 4 April to 8 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 March to 12 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Longreach Rain Forecast
Longreach 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2020202158788797677105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 12
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout January with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 as per December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 1.3 in January. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, cooling even further by mid 2020. Six out of eight international models continue to maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of the year, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, which is what you will expect for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values until the austral winter, with indications we could see another positive event late winter/spring. However, the skill of the models is low at this time of the year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours average-to-below average rainfall for parts of inland NSW and Qld for the end of summer and autumn. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) had its latest onset on record in early February at Darwin (by its technical definition) with the current prognosis suggesting another below average wet season for northern Australia. The northern half of the country however, could see a wet end to the wet season compared to the season thus far. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Longreach Rain Forecast
Longreach 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATMar 1
2
3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
HIGH6
HIGH7
8
9
10
LOW11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
LOW15
16
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LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 1Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 March to 20 March, 26 March to 30 March, and 30 March to 3 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 March to 14 March, and 4 April to 8 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 March to 12 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Longreach Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Feb 2624.0 °C - 0.0 mmThursday
Feb 27- 39.5 °C -Friday
Feb 2823.8 °C 38.7 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Feb 2922.9 °C 38.6 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 0124.9 °C 39 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Longreach minimum temp history (23.4405°S, 144.2503°E, 189m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month - Coldest this month 25.0° 01/03/2020 Hottest on record 43.6 04/03/1985 Coldest on record 8.7 31/03/1970 Hottest this year 43.9° 01/01/2020 Coldest this year 21.2° 12/02/2020 Long term average 34.7° Long term average 20.5° Average this month - Average this month 25.0° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 39.1° 2015 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 18.0° 1994 Longreach rainfall history (23.4405°S, 144.2503°E, 189m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/03/2020 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 54.2mm 4.8 days Wettest March on record 413.4mm 1963 Driest on record 0.0mm 1953 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for QLD
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Year to Date
Longreach Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 210.1mm 18.6 day(s) Total For 2020 139.0mm 15.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2019 100.2mm 10.0 day(s) Wettest Day 29.0mm Jan27 Lowest Temperature 21.2°C Feb12 Highest Temperature 43.9°C Jan 1 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Longreach Climatology
Longreach Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 37.1 35.9 34.7 31.5 27.1 23.7 23.6 26.0 30.2 34.0 36.3 37.5 31.4 Mean Min (°C) 23.1 22.5 20.5 16.5 12.1 8.3 7.1 8.5 12.6 16.9 20.1 22.2 15.8 Mean Rain (mm) 78.7 77.2 54.2 34.8 24.8 19.3 19.0 11.3 12.1 21.5 29.8 55.3 437.5 Mean Rain Days 7.1 6.7 4.8 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.4 3.8 4.5 6.3 45.8