Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Heatwave Warning
Issued at 02:26 PM CST on Tuesday 05 December 2023
Warning for the following areas:
Gregory, Simpson, Lasseter and Tanami
Cancellation for the following areas:
Tiwi
The NT Department of Health advises everyone in the affected areas to take the following actions:
Severe heatwaves can be dangerous for many people, especially older people, babies, children, pregnant and breastfeeding women, people with medical conditions and people who are unwell.
Seek a place to keep cool, such as your home, a library, community centre or shopping centre.
Close your windows and draw blinds, curtains or awnings early in the day to keep the heat out of your home.
If available, use fans or air-conditioners to keep cool.
No further warnings will be issued for this event.
Forecast
Lajamanu (18.3388°S, 130.6367°E, 304m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY28° 41° late shower Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:39am CST 6:03am CST 7:14pm CST 7:38pm CST NOW28.4° Feels Like: 29.5° Relative Humidity: 57% Dew: 19.3° Wind: N 11km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1010.2hPa -
Today Weather
LajamanuNow22.7°cFeels Like:22.8°Wind:N 0km/hGusts:0km/hHumidity:45%28°Min41°MaxToday in LajamanuPartly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming N 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening.Tomorrow27°Min40°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming N 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening.
Forecast for Lajamanu (18.3388°S, 130.6367°E, 304m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 28° 27° 27° 27° 24° 23° 22° Maximum 41° 40° 40° 38° 36° 33° 35° Chance of rain 70% 30% 40% 40% 60% 30% 5% Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Fire Danger Rating No Rating No Rating No Rating No Rating - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 17
(km/h)16
(km/h)18
(km/h)13
(km/h)13
(km/h)9
(km/h)17
(km/h)16
(km/h)14
(km/h)16
(km/h)28
(km/h)20
(km/h)21
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction N ENE NNW NE WNW N WNW W S S SSE SE ESE E Relative humidity 45% 23% 50% 30% 50% 28% 53% 37% 67% 44% 43% 32% 41% 22% Dew point 20°C 17°C 22°C 19°C 22°C 19°C 21°C 21°C 22°C 22°C 12°C 14°C 13°C 11°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Lajamanu Rain Forecast
Lajamanu 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
MEDIUM10
MEDIUM11
LOW12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2023-12-08, 2023-12-21 and 2023-12-29. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2023-12-14, 2023-12-23 and 2024-01-02. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2023-12-07, 2023-12-12 and 2023-12-17.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Lajamanu Rain Forecast
Lajamanu 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct20232024665576101998105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 5
ENSO status: El Niño, reached a strong event. IOD status: Positive IOD, starting to weaken. SAM status: Neutral, trending positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño, with all international models indicating this event will continue until at least April 2024. Ocean warming is continuing to occur in the eastern and central Pacific and has reached the threshold for a 'strong event'. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has reduced further and is comfortably below the El Niño threshold, especially over the last 90-days. El Niño only has a limited effect on rainfall during summer, drying Far North Qld, increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor, and having little effect elsewhere. El Niño also typically delays the first monsoon onset and reduces the number of tropical cyclones impacting Australia, but otherwise has little effect on Australia during January and February. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a positive phase but is weakening from its peak in late October. Winds areexpected to weaken with the current tropical activity, but generally SE wind near Jakarta should maintain the event The IOD typically takes 3-6 weeks to decay, so could persist into the start of 2024. However, the first monsoon onset over northern Australia will still sever its effect on Australia. A positive IOD greatly reduces the formation of northwest cloudbands, leading to reductions in spring rainfall over northern WA, central Aus, and the southeast. A positive IOD often has a compound effect with El Niño, reducing rainfall even further. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral. It is expected to favour a positive event for the remainder of December. Longer-term, since negative SAM events become more likely during El Niño, models suggest it becoming strongly negative around February. A negative phase tends to increase cold front activity over southern Australia, increasing rainfall over southern Vic, western Tas, and southeast SA, while decreasing it for eastern NSW and Qld. The opposite occurs in a positive event, with easterly winds more likely, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east, but reducing it in southern and Western Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting above average rainfall for eastern NSW & Qld, below average rainfall over the Tas and far northern Australia, and average elsewhere in December. Large rainfall deficits are expected over northern Australia from December, likely with a delayed initial monsoon onset. Rainfall is forecast to be above average in the NT and NSW during January, with average to slightly below average elsewhere, with drier than normal conditions forecast throughout in February.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Lajamanu Rain Forecast
Lajamanu 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
MEDIUM10
MEDIUM11
LOW12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2023-12-08, 2023-12-21 and 2023-12-29. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2023-12-14, 2023-12-23 and 2024-01-02. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2023-12-07, 2023-12-12 and 2023-12-17.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Lajamanu Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Dec 0125.0 °C 40.7 °C 0.2 mmSaturday
Dec 0226.5 °C 42.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 03- 40.5 °C -Monday
Dec 0426.5 °C 43.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 0527.2 °C 42.9 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Lajamanu minimum temp history (18.3388°S, 130.6367°E, 304m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 43.1° 04/12/2023 Coldest this month 25.0° 01/12/2023 Hottest on record 45.4 08/12/2009 Coldest on record 14.0 28/12/2006 Hottest this year 43.1° 04/12/2023 Coldest this year 4.6° 28/05/2023 Long term average 38.4° Long term average 24.4° Average this month 41.8° Average this month 26.3° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 41.0° 1972 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 22.5° 2000 Lajamanu rainfall history (18.3388°S, 130.6367°E, 304m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.2mm 01/12/2023 Total This Month 0.2mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 82.6mm 8.1 days Wettest December on record 228.6mm 2003 Driest on record 0.0mm 1961 -
Year to Date
Lajamanu Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 562.8mm 48.5 day(s) Total For 2023 909.8mm 58.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2022 473.2mm 52.0 day(s) Wettest Day 114.2mm Mar 1 Lowest Temperature 4.6°C May28 Highest Temperature 43.1°C Dec 4 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Lajamanu Climatology
Lajamanu Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 37.2 36.3 35.4 34.1 29.7 27.0 27.1 30.2 34.9 37.6 38.3 38.4 33.9 Mean Min (°C) 24.3 23.6 22.4 18.5 13.6 10.4 9.4 11.4 16.9 20.8 23.4 24.4 18.2 Mean Rain (mm) 149.2 142.4 87.9 15.6 7.9 4.2 5.9 1.0 5.0 22.2 38.9 82.6 540.0 Mean Rain Days 10.4 9.3 6.3 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.1 3.2 5.1 8.1 47.2