Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Minor To Moderate Flood Warning For The Bogan River
Issued at 09:20 AM EST on Friday 20 May 2022
Flood Watch Number: 26
MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE AT MUDALL AND NYNGAN NEXT WEEK
MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE AT MULGAWARRINA EARLY JUNE
MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING AT DANDALOO
Minor flooding is occurring along the Bogan River at Dandaloo, where the river levels peaked during Wednesday.
The flood peak may arrive at Mudall early next week causing moderate flooding.
Moderate flooding may occur at Nyngan later next week.
An earlier flood peak is approaching Mulgawarrina where minor flooding is likely over the weekend, with rises to moderate flood level (5.0 metres) possible by early June.
Minor flooding is possible at Gongolgon from mid-week next week.
Bogan River to Nyngan:
Moderate flooding is possible along the Bogan River at Mudall and Nyngan. Minor flooding is occurring along the Bogan River at Dandaloo.
The Bogan River at Dandaloo peaked at 4.99 metres on Wednesday and is currently at 4.70 metres and falling, with minor flooding.
River levels at Dandaloo are expected to fall below the minor flood (4.10 metres) level Saturday afternoon.
Minor flooding is occurring along the Bogan River at Mudall (estimated). The Bogan River at Mudall may reach the moderate flood level (3.00 metres) early next week.
The Bogan River at Nyngan peaked at 3.44 metres on Monday, below the moderate flood level (3.50 metres).
Renewed rises to the moderate flood level are possible later next week.
Lower Bogan River:
Moderate flooding is possible along the Lower Bogan River at Mulgawarrina. Minor flooding is likely along the Lower Bogan River at Gongolgon.
The Bogan River at Mulgawarrina may exceed the minor flood level (4.20 metres) over the weekend. Further rises to the moderate flood level (5.00 metres) are possible early June.
The Bogan River at Gongolgon may reach the minor flood level (0.80 metres) mid-week next week. Further rises are possible.
Flood Safety Advice:
In life threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately. If you require rescue, assistance to evacuate or other emergency help, ring NSW SES on 132 500.
* Avoid drowning. Stay out of rising water, seek refuge in the highest available place.
* Prevent damage to your vehicle. Move it under cover, away from areas likely to flood.
* Avoid being swept away. Stay out of fast-flowing creeks and storm drains.
* Never drive, ride or walk through flood water. Flood water can be deceptive and dangerous.}
For more emergency information, advice, and access to the latest river heights and rainfall observations and forecasts:
* NSW SES: www.ses.nsw.gov.au
* RMS Live Traffic: www.livetraffic.com
* Latest River Heights and Rainfall Observations: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/centralwest.shtml
* Latest NSW Warnings: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/
* Rainfall Forecasts: www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
* BOM NSW Twitter: www.twitter.com/BOM_NSW
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EST on Monday 23 May 2022.
Latest River Heights:
Bogan River at Peak Hill,0.68,Falling,08:00 AM FRI 20/05/22
Bogan River at Dandaloo,4.70,Falling,08:00 AM FRI 20/05/22
Bogan River at Neurie Plains,1.38,Steady,08:00 AM FRI 20/05/22
Bogan River at Nyngan,3.18,Steady,08:00 AM FRI 20/05/22
Bogan River at Monkey Bridge,3.23,Rising,08:00 AM FRI 20/05/22
Bogan River at Gongolgon,0.66,Rising,08:00 AM FRI 20/05/22
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts.
Forecast
Dubbo (32.2452°S, 148.6042°E, 257m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY8° 20° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:26am EST 6:52am EST 5:12pm EST 5:38pm EST NOW10.1° Feels Like: 7.2° Relative Humidity: 89% Dew: 8.4° Wind: SE 13km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm Pressure: 1026.4hPa -
Today Weather
DubboNow12.2°cFeels Like:8.9°Wind:E 15km/hGusts:24km/hHumidity:77%8°Min20°MaxToday in DubboPartly cloudy. Winds E 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 18 and 21.Tomorrow9°Min20°MaxMostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower on the N slopes, near zero chance elsewhere. Light winds becoming E 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 18 and 21. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Winds E 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 18 and 21.
Forecast for Dubbo (32.2452°S, 148.6042°E, 257m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 8° 9° 7° 9° 7° 8° 5° Maximum 20° 20° 19° 21° 20° 18° 17° Chance of rain 20% 30% 5% 30% 50% 80% 60% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Slight 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 18
(km/h)20
(km/h)17
(km/h)20
(km/h)16
(km/h)15
(km/h)12
(km/h)10
(km/h)7
(km/h)10
(km/h)5
(km/h)17
(km/h)10
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction ESE E E E E E E NE E WSW SSW W W WNW Relative humidity 81% 53% 84% 54% 86% 57% 89% 59% 93% 59% 95% 64% 90% 56% Dew point 10°C 9°C 11°C 9°C 10°C 9°C 12°C 11°C 11°C 11°C 11°C 10°C 8°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Dubbo Rain Forecast
Dubbo 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
27
LOW28
LOW29
30
31
LOWJun 1
LOW2
3
HIGH4
LOW5
HIGH6
MEDIUM7
8
9
HIGH10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
14
15
16
17
18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 6 June to 10 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 May to 28 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Dubbo Rain Forecast
Dubbo 12-month Rainfall ForecastMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr20222023889888866878105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued May 11
ENSO status: La Niña, it is expected return to neutral state by early winter. IOD status: Neutral, models suggest it could enter a negative phase in the next month. SAM status: Positive and is expected to remain positive for the next month or so. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña phase and has not changed in strength during the past two weeks. La Niña events typically breaks down in autumn and while this current La Niña is persisting longer than usual, most models suggest it should end by early winter. However, one seasonal model operated by the U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) suggests that a La Niña-like signal could linger in the Pacific Ocean through the middle of the year and possibly remerge in the Southern Hemisphere’s spring. That being said, it is important to note that seasonal forecast models have lower accuracy at this time of year. This is called the autumn predictability barrier. The La Niña forecast will increase the likelihood of above-average rain in northern and eastern Australia during the remainder of Autumn, possibly into winter. Even as La Niña weakens it should continue to influence our climate. all five climate models suggest a negative phase will begin during late autumn or early winter. Climate models are forecasting strong negative IOD values by August, with the negative IOD event possibly lingering into spring. While a neutral IOD has little influence on our climate, a negative IOD increases the chance of above average autumn and winter rain for much of Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except southwest WA, parts of TAS and VIC. If a negative IOD does develop this winter, it will increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia, especially areas that had a wet summer and autumn.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Dubbo Rain Forecast
Dubbo 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
27
LOW28
LOW29
30
31
LOWJun 1
LOW2
3
HIGH4
LOW5
HIGH6
MEDIUM7
8
9
HIGH10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
14
15
16
17
18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 6 June to 10 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 May to 28 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Dubbo Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
May 182.2 °C 17.6 °C 0.0 mmThursday
May 192.8 °C 16.2 °C 0.0 mmFriday
May 205.2 °C 16.3 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
May 219.3 °C 20.6 °C 0.0 mmSunday
May 2210.5 °C 20.2 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Dubbo minimum temp history (32.2452°S, 148.6042°E, 257m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 25.3° 14/05/2022 Coldest this month -0.2° 08/05/2022 Hottest on record 28.6 01/05/2013 Coldest on record -4.0 30/05/2017 Hottest this year 36.4° 06/01/2022 Coldest this year -0.2° 08/05/2022 Long term average 20.1° Long term average 6.5° Average this month 20.1° Average this month 8.3° Hottest May On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.5° 2007 Coldest May on record Avg. min. temp. 2.8° 2006 Dubbo rainfall history (32.2452°S, 148.6042°E, 257m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 35.6mm 12/05/2022 Total This Month 60.0mm
8.0 daysLong Term Average 36.1mm 6.6 days Wettest May on record 86.8mm 2000 Driest on record 0.6mm 2006 -
Year to Date
Dubbo Year To Date
Average Rainfall To May 245.4mm 32.3 day(s) Total For 2022 478.6mm 49.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2021 378.0mm 32.0 day(s) Wettest Day 58.6mm Jan 7 Lowest Temperature -0.2°C May 8 Highest Temperature 36.4°C Jan 6 -
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Australia Radars
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Dubbo Climatology
Dubbo Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 33.5 32.0 29.0 24.8 20.1 16.4 15.7 17.6 21.4 25.2 28.7 31.5 24.6 Mean Min (°C) 18.4 17.6 14.8 10.4 6.5 4.4 3.0 3.2 6.0 9.5 13.5 16.0 10.2 Mean Rain (mm) 54.8 48.1 65.9 40.5 36.1 52.4 44.7 39.0 45.0 47.0 60.7 63.8 589.5 Mean Rain Days 7.2 6.9 6.9 4.7 6.6 10.9 11.5 7.5 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.0 90.0