Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.
Flood Watch For The New South Wales North And Central West Inland Rivers
Issued at 01:11 PM EST on Friday 12 August 2022
Flood Watch Number: 3
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE NEW SOUTH WALES NORTH AND CENTRAL WEST INLAND RIVERS FROM SATURDAY
A cold front associated with a low pressure system is bringing showers or rain areas to parts of western New South Wales for the remainder of Friday into the weekend. This rainfall may cause minor flooding along the North and Central West inland NSW rivers. Renewed rises and major flooding is also possible along the Macquarie River which experienced flooding due the rainfall last week and has a flood warning current.
Catchments are wet following recent rainfall
The weather system is expected to cause renewed flooding for the following catchments listed from Saturday. Flood Classes (minor, moderate, major) are only defined for catchments where the Bureau provides a flood warning service.
Catchments likely to be affected include:
Upper Macintyre River
Gwydir River
Peel River
Namoi River
Macquarie River to Bathurst
Macquarie River d/s Burrendong Dam
Castlereagh River
Orange, Molong and Bell River
Bogan River
Lachlan River to Cotton's Weir
Belubula River
Mandagery Creek
Tumut River
Murrumbidgee River to Wagga Wagga
Flood Warnings are current for the following catchments: Namoi, Macquarie, Bogan, Lachlan, Murrumbidgee, Murray, Mirrool Creek, Culgoa, Narran and Darling.
For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/
For the latest rainfall and weather forecasts see www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood
Flood Safety Advice:
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.nsw.gov.au
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500
For life threatening emergencies, call 000 immediately
This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.
Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service.
Severe Weather Warnings will be issued or updated if very heavy rain is forecast or observed.
For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml}
Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 02:00 pm EST on Saturday 13 August 2022.
Forecast
Dubbo (32.2452°S, 148.6042°E, 257m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW7° 16° showers increasing Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:20am EST 6:45am EST 5:37pm EST 6:02pm EST NOW9.6° Feels Like: 9.4° Relative Humidity: 97% Dew: 9.1° Wind: N 0km/h Gust: 0km/h Rainfall since 9am: 22.4mm Pressure: 1015.6hPa -
Today Weather
DubboNow9.7°cFeels Like:9.6°Wind:N 0km/hGusts:0km/hHumidity:99%7°Min16°MaxToday in DubboCloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming NW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 17.Tomorrow7°Min16°MaxCloudy. The chance of frost on the N plains in the early morning. Very high chance of showers in the S, high chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm on the slopes. Winds W/NW 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening then becoming W 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 16. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming NW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 14 and 17.
Forecast for Dubbo (32.2452°S, 148.6042°E, 257m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 7° 4° 3° 5° 2° 5° 6° Maximum 16° 13° 15° 15° 17° 19° 17° Chance of rain 90% 90% 60% 40% 20% 60% 20% Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Slight Moderate Slight Moderate Slight Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 10
(km/h)21
(km/h)14
(km/h)24
(km/h)13
(km/h)24
(km/h)12
(km/h)23
(km/h)9
(km/h)18
(km/h)13
(km/h)22
(km/h)17
(km/h)28
(km/h)Wind direction N NNW NNW WNW NW WNW W WSW SW WSW NNW NW WNW WNW Relative humidity 96% 63% 95% 71% 92% 60% 92% 59% 91% 53% 83% 50% 82% 45% Dew point 10°C 8°C 7°C 7°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 6°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 4°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Dubbo Rain Forecast
Dubbo 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
HIGH13
HIGH14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
LOW19
20
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23
24
25
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28
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31
Sep 1
2
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CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Dubbo Rain Forecast
Dubbo 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20222023999877776586105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 2
ENSO status: Neutral, However, some models suggest La Niña may re-form in spring. IOD status: Negative, all models suggest this event will continue until late spring. SAM status: Neutral, neutral to positive levels are forecast in August The 2021-22 La Nina event has ended according to BOM, however two out of seven models suggest a return of La Nina in late winter, with four in October and five in November. Even though this event officially has ended, a La Nina-like pattern is likely to persist for the remainder of 2022. However, new data released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre continues to point towards the prospect of a third consecutive La Niña later this year. Their predictions give La Niña a 62 percent chance of occurring by early spring and a 65 to 66 percent chance in late spring and early summer.Looking further ahead, the majority of forecast models predict that the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean should break down towards the end of summer, most likely returning to a neutral state early in 2023. The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a negative IOD event is underway to the northwest of Australia. This declaration comes after sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have remained near or exceeded the negative IOD threshold for the last eight weeks. This is now the 2nd consecutive year to be declared a negative IOD year, following a relatively weak event in 2021. This is the first time we have seen two consecutive negative IOD years since reliable records of the IOD began in 1960. Unlike last year’s event, this year’s negative IOD is expected to be strong and last through the remainder of winter and spring. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter and spring rainfall and cloud across parts of southern Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except drier than average conditions are forecast in southwest WA and parts of TAS. During spring much of Australia isforecast to average to above average. Early indications of summer rainfall look average to above average for much of Australia, except TAS which looks drier. The negative IOD could increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia. With two La Niña seasons already in the bag and the prospect of a third La Niña now a looming possibility, this is likely to have a compounding effect that may exacerbate the impacts we normally see in Australia. So, while individual La Niña events usually cause more rain and flooding in northern and eastern Australia, any La Niña-fuelled rainfall this year will be falling onto already saturated ground and into full dams. This makes flooding a heightened risk, especially for areas that just had a wet summer and autumn.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Dubbo Rain Forecast
Dubbo 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
HIGH13
HIGH14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
LOW19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
5
6
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9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Dubbo Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Aug 081.2 °C 15.7 °C 1.2 mmTuesday
Aug 090.4 °C 16.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Aug 100.5 °C 17.5 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Aug 118.0 °C 16.0 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Aug 1210.7 °C 12.3 °C 15.8 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Dubbo minimum temp history (32.2452°S, 148.6042°E, 257m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 22.9° 03/08/2022 Coldest this month -1.4° 02/08/2022 Hottest on record 28.3 21/08/1995 Coldest on record -4.7 09/08/1995 Hottest this year 36.4° 06/01/2022 Coldest this year -3.1° 15/07/2022 Long term average 17.6° Long term average 3.2° Average this month 16.9° Average this month 5.7° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 20.1° 1995 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 1.2° 1994 Dubbo rainfall history (32.2452°S, 148.6042°E, 257m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 28.0mm 05/08/2022 Total This Month 59.4mm
7.0 daysLong Term Average 39.0mm 7.5 days Wettest August on record 151.6mm 1998 Driest on record 0.4mm 1995 -
Year to Date
Dubbo Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 380.6mm 62.1 day(s) Total For 2022 625.2mm 76.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2021 568.0mm 73.0 day(s) Wettest Day 58.6mm Jan 7 Lowest Temperature -3.1°C Jul15 Highest Temperature 36.4°C Jan 6 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Dubbo Climatology
Dubbo Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 33.5 32.0 29.0 24.8 20.1 16.4 15.7 17.6 21.4 25.2 28.7 31.5 24.6 Mean Min (°C) 18.4 17.6 14.8 10.4 6.5 4.4 3.0 3.2 6.0 9.5 13.5 16.0 10.2 Mean Rain (mm) 53.9 48.1 65.9 40.5 37.6 50.9 44.7 39.0 45.0 47.0 60.7 63.8 589.5 Mean Rain Days 7.1 6.9 6.9 4.7 6.8 10.7 11.5 7.5 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.0 90.0