Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Cancellation Of Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for South West Slopes and Riverina Forecast Districts.
Issued at 7:28 pm Tuesday, 19 March 2024.
Severe thunderstorms have now eased.
Weather Situation
Isolated thunderstorms continue through central parts of the state, but are no longer likely to be severe.
cancellation of severe thunderstorm warning for the following areas:
South West Slopes and Riverina
The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.
No further warnings will be issued for this event.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Cabramurra (35.9395°S, 148.3857°E, 1451m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW9° 14° clearing shower Chance of rain: 40% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:44am EDT 7:10am EDT 7:18pm EDT 7:43pm EDT NOW14.2° Feels Like: 12.3° Relative Humidity: 100% Dew: 14.2° Wind: W 17km/h Gust: 26km/h Rainfall since 9am: 1.6mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
CabramurraNow12.7°cFeels Like:12.5°Wind:NW 6km/hGusts:19km/hHumidity:100%9°Min14°MaxToday in CabramurraCloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h shifting S/SW 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.Tomorrow9°Min14°MaxSunny. Patches of morning frost. Winds SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h shifting S/SW 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.
Forecast for Cabramurra (35.9395°S, 148.3857°E, 1451m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 9° 2° 5° 6° 7° 7° 7° Maximum 14° 16° 16° 16° 17° 16° 16° Chance of rain 40% 5% 5% 20% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High High High High High Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Moderate Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 20
(km/h)22
(km/h)17
(km/h)12
(km/h)12
(km/h)17
(km/h)13
(km/h)16
(km/h)16
(km/h)22
(km/h)16
(km/h)24
(km/h)14
(km/h)19
(km/h)Wind direction WNW W ESE NW NE W E WNW W W WNW WNW W W Relative humidity 91% 55% 55% 41% 65% 47% 74% 50% 70% 44% 57% 47% 60% 41% Dew point 10°C 4°C -3°C 1°C 2°C 4°C 4°C 5°C 5°C 3°C 1°C 4°C 2°C 2°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Cabramurra Rain Forecast
Cabramurra 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Cabramurra Rain Forecast
Cabramurra 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025576766535859105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Cabramurra Rain Forecast
Cabramurra 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Cabramurra Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 157.3 °C 15.6 °C 8.6 mmSaturday
Mar 165.3 °C 18.7 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 178.2 °C 15.4 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 189.4 °C 19.0 °C 3.6 mmTuesday
Mar 1911.2 °C 21.9 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Cabramurra minimum temp history (35.9395°S, 148.3857°E, 1451m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 25.9° 07/03/2024 Coldest this month 5.3° 16/03/2024 Hottest on record 28.4 08/03/2016 Coldest on record -0.8 06/03/2005 Hottest this year 26.1° 04/02/2024 Coldest this year 5.3° 16/03/2024 Long term average 17.5° Long term average 8.9° Average this month 21.5° Average this month 12.3° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 20.4° 2006 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 7.3° 2005 Cabramurra rainfall history (35.9395°S, 148.3857°E, 1451m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 8.6mm 15/03/2024 Total This Month 13.6mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 84.0mm 8.3 days Wettest March on record 261.6mm 2012 Driest on record 5.6mm 2004 -
Year to Date
Cabramurra Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 240.3mm 24.2 day(s) Total For 2024 192.6mm 22.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 193.4mm 20.0 day(s) Wettest Day 51.0mm Jan 8 Lowest Temperature 5.3°C Mar16 Highest Temperature 26.1°C Feb 4 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Cabramurra Climatology
Cabramurra Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.4 20.5 17.5 12.9 8.4 5.3 3.9 5.0 8.8 12.3 15.7 18.5 12.4 Mean Min (°C) 11.6 11.0 8.9 5.8 2.7 0.5 -0.7 -0.4 1.8 4.2 7.0 9.1 5.1 Mean Rain (mm) 78.3 78.0 84.0 80.0 94.2 124.5 116.4 125.7 120.0 109.4 122.9 97.4 1211.0 Mean Rain Days 8.3 7.6 8.3 8.1 10.6 13.3 15.0 14.6 12.4 11.2 11.0 9.4 127.6