Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for Heavy Rainfall And Damaging Winds
for parts of Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Riverina, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:44 pm Saturday, 16 November 2024.
Heavy rainfall and damaging winds developing about the southeast from early Sunday morning.
Weather Situation
A strong cold front moving into western New South Wales tonight will move into the central parts of the state early Sunday morning and combine with elevated moisture feeding into the area from the north.
HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Riverina, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast with areas of rain and thunderstorms for the southeast of New South Wales from Sunday morning. Six-hourly rainfall totals of 30 to 60 mm are likely, with isolated totals up to 80 mm possible over alpine peaks. 24-hourly rainfall totals of 60 to 80 mm are likely, with isolated falls of 120 mm possible, mainly near the Victorian border.
Localised INTENSE RAINFALL is also possible with thunderstorms. A separate Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued if very dangerous thunderstorms with INTENSE RAINFALL are detected.
DAMAGING WINDS averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts up to 130 km/h are possible over alpine areas above 1900 metres from early Sunday morning.
Heavy rainfall and Damaging winds are forecast to ease below warning thresholds late Sunday afternoon or evening.
Locations which may be affected include Albury, Tumbarumba, Gundagai, Tumut, Khancoban and Corowa.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
* Be aware that run-off from rainfall in fire affected areas may behave differently and be more rapid. It may also contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* After bushfires, heavy rain and the loss of foliage can make the ground soft and heavy, leading to a greater chance of landslides.
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Trees that have been damaged by fire are likely to be more unstable and more likely to fall.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 am AEDT Sunday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Cabramurra (35.9395°S, 148.3857°E, 1451m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY13° 17° possible shower Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 20-40mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:20am EDT 5:49am EDT 7:55pm EDT 8:23pm EDT NOW15.4° Feels Like: 8.4° Relative Humidity: 72% Dew: 10.4° Wind: N 37km/h Gust: 46km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
CabramurraNow15.3°cFeels Like:11.0°Wind:N 19km/hGusts:28km/hHumidity:58%13°Min17°MaxToday in CabramurraPartly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe with heavy falls and damaging winds. Winds N 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 35 to 50 km/h before dawn then turning NW 30 to 45 km/h in the early afternoon.Tomorrow5°Min12°MaxMostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the E in the afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds NW/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending S/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe with heavy falls and damaging winds. Winds N 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 35 to 50 km/h before dawn then turning NW 30 to 45 km/h in the early afternoon.
Forecast for Cabramurra (35.9395°S, 148.3857°E, 1451m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary Minimum 13° 5° 4° 7° 9° 9° 12° Maximum 17° 12° 16° 18° 18° 20° 23° Chance of rain 70% 10% 20% 10% 20% 50% 30% Likely amount 20-40mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Very High Very High Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Slight Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 30
(km/h)30
(km/h)19
(km/h)24
(km/h)12
(km/h)18
(km/h)12
(km/h)17
(km/h)11
(km/h)17
(km/h)13
(km/h)18
(km/h)12
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction NNE NNW W W WNW W WNW W NE W WNW W WNW W Relative humidity 84% 100% 69% 53% 66% 47% 67% 48% 68% 53% 64% 51% 57% 43% Dew point 14°C 15°C 2°C 2°C 4°C 4°C 6°C 6°C 8°C 7°C 8°C 9°C 8°C 9°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Cabramurra Rain Forecast
Cabramurra 12-month Rainfall ForecastNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct20242025587687786442105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Oct 1
ENSO status: La Niña Watch. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Negative. Trending slightly negative. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña Watch, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of a La Niña developing this year. Overall, models are now starting to look more like La Niña, with more widespread ocean cooling occurring in the South Pacific, helped by the consistently strong trade winds. While these are good signs that La Niña is starting to develop, a declaration would likely happen no earlier than November, meaning this is more likely to be a late and weaker event if it does eventuate. A La Niña typically increases rainfall over northern and southeastern Australia during spring, but has little effect for southwestern WA. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is now unlikely to develop into either phase this spring. Conditions are closer to a negative IOD at the moment, so there may be some minor increases in the frequency of northwest cloudbands impactingAustralia. A neutral IOD tends to bring a small increase in spring rainfall for southwest WA, but has little effect elsewhere. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a negative phase, continuing on from the initial sudden Stratospheric Warming (SW) events over Antarctica since mid-July. These events increase the chances of negative SAM events, but are having a lesser effect moving forward in October. A negative SAM increases the frequency of cold fronts. During spring, this increases rainfall over western Tas and southern Vic, but decreases rainfall over eastern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are showing close to average for most of the country during October, with a higher chance of above average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, increasing further into November and December. Models are also hinting that rainfall is more likely to arrive in the form of showers and thunderstorms, rather than broad rainbands, meaning rainfall in practice will likely be hit-and-miss for most of Australia thisspring.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Cabramurra Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Tuesday
Nov 128.3 °C 19.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Nov 139.2 °C 14.9 °C 6.6 mmThursday
Nov 149.0 °C 17.2 °C 9.4 mmFriday
Nov 157.3 °C 18.2 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Nov 168.6 °C 21.3 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Cabramurra minimum temp history (35.9395°S, 148.3857°E, 1451m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 21.4° 06/11/2024 Coldest this month 3.7° 02/11/2024 Hottest on record 27.2 20/11/2009 Coldest on record -4.7 16/11/2006 Hottest this year 26.1° 04/02/2024 Coldest this year -5.8° 29/07/2024 Long term average 15.7° Long term average 7.0° Average this month 17.3° Average this month 7.6° Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.8° 2009 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 4.3° 1998 Cabramurra rainfall history (35.9395°S, 148.3857°E, 1451m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 9.4mm 14/11/2024 Total This Month 17.4mm
6.0 daysLong Term Average 122.9mm 11.0 days Wettest November on record 272.0mm 2011 Driest on record 0.0mm 1999 -
Year to Date
Cabramurra Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Nov 1128.8mm 119.6 day(s) Total For 2024 903.0mm 100.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 1050.4mm 128.0 day(s) Wettest Day 67.0mm Sep26 Lowest Temperature -5.8°C Jul29 Highest Temperature 26.1°C Feb 4 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Cabramurra Climatology
Cabramurra Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.4 20.5 17.6 12.9 8.5 5.3 3.9 5.1 8.8 12.3 15.7 18.5 12.4 Mean Min (°C) 11.6 11.1 9.0 5.9 2.7 0.5 -0.7 -0.4 1.8 4.2 7.0 9.1 5.1 Mean Rain (mm) 78.3 77.5 82.8 80.0 91.8 123.8 117.0 123.7 121.6 109.4 122.9 97.4 1211.0 Mean Rain Days 8.3 7.6 8.1 8.1 10.3 13.2 14.9 14.5 12.4 11.2 11.0 9.4 127.6