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Forecast

Armidale (30.5142°S, 151.669°E, 971m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Sunny 21°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:18am EST 5:42am EST 5:50pm EST 6:14pm EST
    NOW
    6.0° Feels Like: 2.5°
    Relative Humidity: 74%
    Dew: 1.7°
    Wind: NW 9km/h
    Gust: 11km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1020.1hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Armidale
    Now
    -2.4°c
    Feels Like:
    -5.9°
    Wind:
    SE 6km/h
    Gusts:
    7km/h
    Humidity:
    93%
    Sunny
     
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Armidale
    Sunny. Patches of morning frost in the W. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h becoming W/NW 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 27.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Mostly sunny. Winds W/NW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/SW in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 28.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Armidale

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Sunny. Patches of morning frost in the W. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h becoming W/NW 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 27.

    Forecast for Armidale (30.5142°S, 151.669°E, 971m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Sunny Mostly sunny Possible shower Frost then sunny Frost then sunny Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum
    Maximum 21° 22° 14° 17° 20° 21° 21°
    Chance of rain 5% 40% 20% 10% 40% 70% 90%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm 1-5mm
    UV index Very High Very High High Very High Very High - -
    Frost risk Moderate Slight Moderate High High Moderate Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 27
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NW WNW WNW W ESE ESE E ESE ENE NE NNE NNW N NNW
    Relative humidity 55% 42% 46% 30% 80% 68% 72% 48% 67% 46% 69% 57% 82% 69%
    Dew point 5°C 7°C 5°C 3°C 6°C 6°C 4°C 4°C 5°C 7°C 7°C 11°C 11°C 14°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Armidale Rain Forecast


    Armidale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    HIGH
    30
    LOW
    Oct 1
    HIGH
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep23

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 October to 11 October, 13 October to 17 October, and 22 October to 26 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 October to 9 October, and 14 October to 18 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 September to 2 October, 8 October to 12 October, and 14 October to 18 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Armidale Rain Forecast


    Armidale 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    2021
    2022
    5
    8
    9
    7
    6
    6
    6
    7
    6
    8
    5
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Sep 16

    ENSO status: Neutral, however five of seven models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again between October and January. IOD status: Neutral, returning from negative values in the recent weeks. SAM status: Positive. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, which has prompted the US Climate Prediction Centre to increase its prediction of La Niña occurring this year to 70-80 percent. However their thresholds are lower than the Bureau of Meteorology's. Five of seven models forecast temperatures may reach or exceed La Niña thresholds between October and January. Three of seven predicted an established event, which requires La Nina thresholds to be met for three months. La Niña typically brings above average rainfall in northern and eastern Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, returning from negative values in the recent weeks. Three of five models areforecasting the IOD event will officially end in October, with all models ending the event in December. A negative IOD generates above average rain to southern and eastern Australia. As such, average to above average rainfall is predicted across much of the country this winter and spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Armidale Rain Forecast


    Armidale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    HIGH
    30
    LOW
    Oct 1
    HIGH
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep23

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 October to 11 October, 13 October to 17 October, and 22 October to 26 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 October to 9 October, and 14 October to 18 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 September to 2 October, 8 October to 12 October, and 14 October to 18 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Armidale Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Sep 19
    2.5 °C 20.8 °C
    8.2 mm
    Monday
    Sep 20
    -1.4 °C 20.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Sep 21
    5.2 °C 9.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Sep 22
    -3.0 °C 16.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Sep 23
    -2.5 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Armidale minimum temp history (30.5142°S, 151.669°E, 971m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 23.0° 11/09/2021 Coldest this month -4.0° 07/09/2021
    Hottest on record 28.7 26/09/2013 Coldest on record -6.0 03/09/2012
    Hottest this year 30.9° 27/01/2021 Coldest this year -7.6° 07/07/2021
    Long term average 18.7° Long term average 2.8°
    Average this month 18.4° Average this month 1.2°
    Hottest September On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.7° 2013 Coldest September on record Avg. min. temp. 0.9° 2012
    Armidale rainfall history (30.5142°S, 151.669°E, 971m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 8.2mm 19/09/2021 Total This Month 14.4mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 43.9mm 7.8 days Wettest September on record 115.6mm 1998
    Driest on record 1.2mm 2019
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Armidale Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Sep 492.1mm 85.9 day(s)
    Total For 2021 567.4mm 95.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 672.4mm 101.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 37.8mm Feb28
    Lowest Temperature -7.6°C Jul 7
    Highest Temperature 30.9°C Jan27
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Armidale Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 27.2 25.8 23.9 20.5 16.7 13.6 13.2 14.9 18.7 21.5 23.7 25.8 20.5
    Mean Min (°C) 13.0 12.7 10.7 6.7 2.1 1.0 -0.4 -0.3 2.8 5.9 9.2 11.5 6.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 88.8 94.3 70.4 37.4 30.4 43.4 38.8 44.7 43.9 66.8 90.0 89.1 732.3
    Mean Rain Days 11.0 11.4 10.8 8.2 7.8 11.3 9.4 8.2 7.8 10.0 11.2 11.7 117.9