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Forecast

Swanbourne (31.9825°S, 115.7706°E, 19m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible shower 15°
    possible shower
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:30am WST 6:55am WST 5:49pm WST 6:14pm WST
    NOW
    10.9° Feels Like: 9.5°
    Relative Humidity: 92%
    Dew: 9.6°
    Wind: E 7km/h
    Gust: 7km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Swanbourne
    Now
    9.9°c
    Feels Like:
    9.7°
    Wind:
    N 0km/h
    Gusts:
    0km/h
    Humidity:
    95%
    Possible shower
     
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Today in Swanbourne
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Swanbourne

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds.

    Forecast for Swanbourne (31.9825°S, 115.7706°E, 19m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Possible shower Possible shower Possible thunderstorm Possible thunderstorm Showers Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum 11° 11° 10° 10°
    Maximum 15° 17° 19° 15° 15° 16° 17°
    Chance of rain 50% 50% 90% 90% 80% 50% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 20-40mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 3
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    Wind direction ENE W NE N NNE NNW WSW W WSW WSW S SSW E ESE
    Relative humidity 83% 74% 85% 67% 70% 80% 80% 72% 73% 70% 77% 66% 81% 58%
    Dew point 10°C 10°C 10°C 10°C 10°C 14°C 10°C 8°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 8°C 8°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Swanbourne Rain Forecast


    Swanbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    HIGH
    16
    HIGH
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 2 September to 6 September, and 12 September to 16 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 September to 6 September, 6 September to 10 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 August to 24 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 9 September to 13 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Swanbourne Rain Forecast


    Swanbourne 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    2020
    2021
    8
    6
    6
    7
    9
    7
    7
    7
    4
    8
    2
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 5

    ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific show a slight decrease in the intensity of cooling compared to June, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.0 in July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 4.2 in the same month, a swing into positive values compared to June. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific through the end of winter and potentially reach La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring, with four of these indicating La Nina by Spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 54:41 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Two of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becoming established during the Austral spring, with the remaining four indicating a neutral phase. Of the four neutral models, including the BOM, three are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, with only the Canadian model trending positive. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short-term outlook favours above average rainfall across most of Australia over the next fortnight, with the exception of western TAS, far southern VIC, and northern QLD and the NT. These expected wetter than average conditions will likely be due to the passage of moisture troughs inland and fronts, in part driven by the positive SAM. Models are then indicating a continued trend to above average rainfall for inland SA, all but the far north of the NT, western, central and southern QLD, northern and western NSW and parts of southern WA. Parts of WA’s Pilbara and Kimberley however are showing signs of below average rainfall into early spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Swanbourne Rain Forecast


    Swanbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    HIGH
    16
    HIGH
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug12

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 2 September to 6 September, and 12 September to 16 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 September to 6 September, 6 September to 10 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 August to 24 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 9 September to 13 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Swanbourne Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Aug 08
    9.9 °C 22.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Aug 09
    12.8 °C 16.9 °C
    4.8 mm
    Monday
    Aug 10
    11.6 °C 18.6 °C
    28.8 mm
    Tuesday
    Aug 11
    13.5 °C 18.1 °C
    2.8 mm
    Wednesday
    Aug 12
    11.9 °C 16.4 °C
    2.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Swanbourne minimum temp history (31.9825°S, 115.7706°E, 19m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 22.3° 08/08/2020 Coldest this month 7.0° 07/08/2020
    Hottest on record 28.0 15/08/2015 Coldest on record 3.1 29/08/2004
    Hottest this year 42.1° 04/02/2020 Coldest this year 6.1° 20/06/2020
    Long term average 18.9° Long term average 10.1°
    Average this month 17.3° Average this month 9.7°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.5° 2014 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 8.2° 2008
    Swanbourne rainfall history (31.9825°S, 115.7706°E, 19m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 28.8mm 10/08/2020 Total This Month 50.2mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 116.2mm 17.3 days Wettest August on record 164.2mm 2013
    Driest on record 31.0mm 2008
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for WA

  16. Year to Date

    Swanbourne Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 569.6mm 80.7 day(s)
    Total For 2020 374.6mm 67.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 451.6mm 64.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 28.8mm Aug10
    Lowest Temperature 6.1°C Jun20
    Highest Temperature 42.1°C Feb 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Swanbourne Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.9 30.6 28.9 25.4 22.1 19.4 18.4 18.9 19.9 22.3 25.4 27.9 24.1
    Mean Min (°C) 18.3 18.7 17.4 15.2 12.6 10.6 9.6 10.1 11.0 12.4 14.7 16.5 13.9
    Mean Rain (mm) 14.9 12.6 21.9 38.3 92.2 125.1 148.4 116.2 82.7 43.5 24.2 11.8 722.9
    Mean Rain Days 2.5 2.0 4.0 7.3 12.6 16.9 18.1 17.3 15.1 8.7 5.4 3.4 105.6