Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Western Australia
Issued at 04:00 PM WST on Friday 12 August 2022
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 13 August 2022
Wind Warnings for Friday 12 August
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Bunbury Geographe Coast and Leeuwin Coast
Cancellation for the following areas:
West Kimberley Coast, Pilbara Coast East and Pilbara Coast West
Wind Warnings for Saturday 13 August
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Geraldton Coast, Lancelin Coast, Perth Coast, Bunbury Geographe Coast and Leeuwin Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Perth Local Waters, Gascoyne Coast, Albany Coast and Esperance Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:00 am WST Saturday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Geraldton (28.7731°S, 114.6113°E, 9m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW11° 21° windy with showers Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:31am WST 6:56am WST 5:57pm WST 6:21pm WST NOW11.7° Feels Like: 7.7° Relative Humidity: 71% Dew: 6.6° Wind: NE 17km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1014.9hPa -
Today Weather
GeraldtonNow20.4°cFeels Like:16.5°Wind:N 22km/hGusts:26km/hHumidity:56%11°Min21°MaxToday in GeraldtonCloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds N/NE 20 to 30 km/h shifting W 25 to 40 km/h in the early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 23.Tomorrow11°Min21°MaxPartly cloudy. The chance of morning fog inland. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 23. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds N/NE 20 to 30 km/h shifting W 25 to 40 km/h in the early afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 23.
Forecast for Geraldton (28.7731°S, 114.6113°E, 9m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 11° 10° 10° 14° 11° 8° 9° Maximum 21° 21° 25° 20° 17° 18° 17° Chance of rain 90% 10% 90% 80% 50% 50% 5% Likely amount 5-10mm < 1mm 10-20mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 30
(km/h)32
(km/h)15
(km/h)12
(km/h)16
(km/h)20
(km/h)21
(km/h)25
(km/h)28
(km/h)31
(km/h)19
(km/h)23
(km/h)22
(km/h)22
(km/h)Wind direction NNE W ENE WNW ENE N WNW W W WSW SE SSW ESE SE Relative humidity 73% 84% 89% 59% 84% 65% 100% 89% 81% 69% 83% 64% 87% 59% Dew point 12°C 16°C 13°C 12°C 14°C 16°C 17°C 16°C 12°C 10°C 9°C 10°C 10°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Geraldton Rain Forecast
Geraldton 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
HIGH14
15
HIGH16
HIGH17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Geraldton Rain Forecast
Geraldton 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20222023867778675114105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 2
ENSO status: Neutral, However, some models suggest La Niña may re-form in spring. IOD status: Negative, all models suggest this event will continue until late spring. SAM status: Neutral, neutral to positive levels are forecast in August The 2021-22 La Nina event has ended according to BOM, however two out of seven models suggest a return of La Nina in late winter, with four in October and five in November. Even though this event officially has ended, a La Nina-like pattern is likely to persist for the remainder of 2022. However, new data released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre continues to point towards the prospect of a third consecutive La Niña later this year. Their predictions give La Niña a 62 percent chance of occurring by early spring and a 65 to 66 percent chance in late spring and early summer.Looking further ahead, the majority of forecast models predict that the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean should break down towards the end of summer, most likely returning to a neutral state early in 2023. The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a negative IOD event is underway to the northwest of Australia. This declaration comes after sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have remained near or exceeded the negative IOD threshold for the last eight weeks. This is now the 2nd consecutive year to be declared a negative IOD year, following a relatively weak event in 2021. This is the first time we have seen two consecutive negative IOD years since reliable records of the IOD began in 1960. Unlike last year’s event, this year’s negative IOD is expected to be strong and last through the remainder of winter and spring. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter and spring rainfall and cloud across parts of southern Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except drier than average conditions are forecast in southwest WA and parts of TAS. During spring much of Australia isforecast to average to above average. Early indications of summer rainfall look average to above average for much of Australia, except TAS which looks drier. The negative IOD could increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia. With two La Niña seasons already in the bag and the prospect of a third La Niña now a looming possibility, this is likely to have a compounding effect that may exacerbate the impacts we normally see in Australia. So, while individual La Niña events usually cause more rain and flooding in northern and eastern Australia, any La Niña-fuelled rainfall this year will be falling onto already saturated ground and into full dams. This makes flooding a heightened risk, especially for areas that just had a wet summer and autumn.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Geraldton Rain Forecast
Geraldton 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
HIGH14
15
HIGH16
HIGH17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug12Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 August to 14 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Geraldton Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Aug 0810.1 °C 20.4 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Aug 0910.9 °C 16.6 °C 3.0 mmWednesday
Aug 108.7 °C 17.4 °C 2.2 mmThursday
Aug 113.4 °C 19.6 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Aug 126.9 °C 22.8 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Geraldton minimum temp history (28.7731°S, 114.6113°E, 9m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 22.3° 01/08/2022 Coldest this month 3.4° 11/08/2022 Hottest on record 31.6 11/08/1948 Coldest on record 1.2 29/08/2004 Hottest this year 44.7° 22/01/2022 Coldest this year 2.9° 04/07/2022 Long term average 21.2° Long term average 9.0° Average this month 19.3° Average this month 9.4° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 22.3° 2006 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 6.4° 1956 Geraldton rainfall history (28.7731°S, 114.6113°E, 9m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 22.2mm 02/08/2022 Total This Month 42.2mm
10.0 daysLong Term Average 59.8mm 15.7 days Wettest August on record 155.4mm 1992 Driest on record 27.0mm 2014 -
Year to Date
Geraldton Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 297.0mm 62.3 day(s) Total For 2022 379.8mm 59.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2021 376.6mm 69.0 day(s) Wettest Day 44.0mm Apr 1 Lowest Temperature 2.9°C Jul 4 Highest Temperature 44.7°C Jan22 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Geraldton Climatology
Geraldton Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 33.0 32.7 31.9 28.8 25.1 22.0 20.4 21.2 23.4 25.8 28.4 31.4 26.9 Mean Min (°C) 19.2 19.6 18.5 15.6 12.3 10.3 9.3 9.0 9.2 11.8 14.6 17.0 13.8 Mean Rain (mm) 7.9 11.1 17.4 29.5 42.6 61.6 67.1 59.8 29.4 18.6 11.6 4.9 346.0 Mean Rain Days 2.3 2.2 3.7 4.6 8.7 11.2 13.9 15.7 9.3 5.7 3.5 2.4 80.2