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Forecast

Gellibrand (38.525°S, 143.5402°E, 67m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Showers
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 10-20mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    7:15am EST 7:45am EST 5:16pm EST 5:45pm EST
    NOW
    9.8° Feels Like: 3.6°
    Relative Humidity: 72%
    Dew: 5.0°
    Wind: NW 26km/h
    Gust: 39km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.8mm
    Pressure: 1011.6hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Gellibrand
    Now
    9.6°c
    Feels Like:
    2.6°
    Wind:
    WNW 32km/h
    Gusts:
    35km/h
    Humidity:
    84%
    Showers
     
    Min
    Max
    Today in Gellibrand
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the west, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1100 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the south early this morning. Gusty winds and possible hail. Winds W/NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 12.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    Max
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 1100 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm near the coast in the morning and afternoon. Possible hail near the Otways. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h shifting SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching around 10.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the west, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1100 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the south early this morning. Gusty winds and possible hail. Winds W/NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 12.

    Forecast for Gellibrand (38.525°S, 143.5402°E, 67m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Showers Showers Showers Showers Showers Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum
    Maximum 10° 10° 11° 10°
    Chance of rain 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 50%
    Likely amount 10-20mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low Low - -
    Frost risk Slight Moderate Slight Nil Slight Nil Moderate
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 20
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NW WNW WNW WSW W WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW S SSE NNE N
    Relative humidity 89% 77% 94% 82% 93% 86% 89% 83% 91% 84% 90% 77% 87% 72%
    Dew point 4°C 5°C 4°C 4°C 7°C 8°C 7°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 6°C 5°C 4°C 5°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Gellibrand Rain Forecast


    Gellibrand 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    HIGH
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    HIGH
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    HIGH
    30
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 2

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 July to 14 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 5 August to 9 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 July to 15 July, 20 July to 24 July, and 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 28 July to 1 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Gellibrand Rain Forecast


    Gellibrand 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    2020
    2021
    4
    4
    6
    5
    5
    7
    8
    6
    6
    5
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Gellibrand Rain Forecast


    Gellibrand 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    HIGH
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    HIGH
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    HIGH
    30
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 2

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 July to 14 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 5 August to 9 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 July to 15 July, 20 July to 24 July, and 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 28 July to 1 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Gellibrand Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Jun 28
    5.7 °C 14.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jun 29
    6.7 °C 14.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jun 30
    6.7 °C 13.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 01
    9.6 °C 17.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 02
    8.3 °C 11.0 °C
    6.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Gellibrand minimum temp history (38.525°S, 143.5402°E, 67m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 17.2° 01/07/2020 Coldest this month 8.3° 02/07/2020
    Hottest on record 21.8 29/07/1975 Coldest on record 0.0 17/07/1966
    Hottest this year 39.8° 31/01/2020 Coldest this year 4.5° 09/06/2020
    Long term average 13.0° Long term average 7.5°
    Average this month 13.4° Average this month 9.0°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 16.7° 1867 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 2.9° 1867
    Gellibrand rainfall history (38.525°S, 143.5402°E, 67m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 6.2mm 02/07/2020 Total This Month 6.2mm
    1.0 days
    Long Term Average 104.4mm 20.4 days Wettest July on record 213.9mm 1958
    Driest on record 35.7mm 1877
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Gellibrand Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 503.0mm 104.4 day(s)
    Total For 2020 336.4mm 90.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 422.4mm 81.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 20.6mm May 1
    Lowest Temperature 4.5°C Jun 9
    Highest Temperature 39.8°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Gellibrand Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 21.3 21.5 20.3 17.9 15.6 13.6 13.0 13.8 15.2 16.9 18.2 19.8 17.2
    Mean Min (°C) 13.3 14.0 13.2 11.7 10.1 8.5 7.5 7.8 8.5 9.5 10.7 12.0 10.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 44.2 40.5 56.5 71.3 89.7 96.4 104.4 103.7 88.0 79.3 63.1 53.1 889.6
    Mean Rain Days 9.8 9.0 12.5 15.3 18.4 19.0 20.4 20.6 18.7 16.8 14.0 12.4 184.9