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Forecast

Cape Otway (38.853°S, 143.5228°E, 86m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Clearing shower 15° 19°
    clearing shower
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:00am EDT 6:30am EDT 8:47pm EDT 9:17pm EDT
    NOW
    16.3° Feels Like: 13.8°
    Relative Humidity: 95%
    Dew: 15.5°
    Wind: WNW 22km/h
    Gust: 24km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1012.7hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Cape Otway
    Now
    17.2°c
    Feels Like:
    16.6°
    Wind:
    WNW 11km/h
    Gusts:
    11km/h
    Humidity:
    86%
    Clearing shower
     
    15°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Today in Cape Otway
    Cloudy. Patchy fog early this morning. Medium chance of light showers in the south in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain in the far north. Light winds becoming SW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending S 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    13°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 10 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Cape Otway

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Patchy fog early this morning. Medium chance of light showers in the south in the morning and early afternoon. Near zero chance of rain in the far north. Light winds becoming SW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending S 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

    Forecast for Cape Otway (38.853°S, 143.5228°E, 86m AMSL)
      Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    Summary Clearing shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Possible shower
    Minimum 15° 13° 13° 14° 16° 18° 16°
    Maximum 19° 19° 20° 21° 27° 36° 21°
    Chance of rain 30% 10% 5% 5% 5% 80% 90%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 10-20mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 21
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW W WNW W W W WNW SW N WSW NE NE WNW W
    Relative humidity 89% 80% 82% 74% 84% 78% 85% 78% 63% 60% 58% 48% 75% 80%
    Dew point 15°C 15°C 12°C 14°C 13°C 16°C 13°C 16°C 16°C 17°C 19°C 23°C 17°C 15°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Cape Otway Rain Forecast


    Cape Otway 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    HIGH
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan25

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 February to 5 February, 6 February to 10 February, and 15 February to 19 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 February to 13 February, and 16 February to 20 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 January to 4 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Cape Otway Rain Forecast


    Cape Otway 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    5
    6
    6
    6
    6
    7
    5
    9
    6
    4
    4
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Cape Otway Rain Forecast


    Cape Otway 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    HIGH
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan25

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 February to 5 February, 6 February to 10 February, and 15 February to 19 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 February to 13 February, and 16 February to 20 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 January to 4 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Cape Otway Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Tuesday
    Jan 21
    13.6 °C 22.6 °C
    13.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 22
    13.3 °C 29.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jan 23
    11.3 °C 16.6 °C
    14.0 mm
    Friday
    Jan 24
    12.2 °C 19.2 °C
    0.6 mm
    Saturday
    Jan 25
    13.8 °C 21 °C
    0.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Cape Otway minimum temp history (38.853°S, 143.5228°E, 86m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 29.8° 22/01/2020 Coldest this month 11.3° 23/01/2020
    Hottest on record 43.3 24/01/1982 Coldest on record 3.3 18/01/1867
    Hottest this year 29.8° 22/01/2020 Coldest this year 11.3° 23/01/2020
    Long term average 21.3° Long term average 13.3°
    Average this month 20.5° Average this month 13.7°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.9° 1908 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 6.9° 1867
    Cape Otway rainfall history (38.853°S, 143.5228°E, 86m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 14.0mm 23/01/2020 Total This Month 43.0mm
    9.0 days
    Long Term Average 44.2mm 9.8 days Wettest January on record 133.1mm 1908
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for VIC

  16. Year to Date

    Cape Otway Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 44.2mm 9.8 day(s)
    Total For 2020 43.0mm 9.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 1.8mm 2.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 14.0mm Jan23
    Lowest Temperature 11.3°C Jan23
    Highest Temperature 29.8°C Jan22
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Cape Otway Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 21.3 21.5 20.3 17.9 15.6 13.6 13.0 13.8 15.2 16.9 18.2 19.8 17.2
    Mean Min (°C) 13.3 14.0 13.2 11.7 10.1 8.5 7.5 7.8 8.5 9.5 10.7 12.0 10.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 44.2 40.5 56.5 71.3 89.7 96.4 104.4 103.7 88.0 79.3 63.1 53.1 889.6
    Mean Rain Days 9.8 9.0 12.5 15.3 18.4 19.0 20.4 20.6 18.7 16.8 14.0 12.4 184.9