Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for Heavy Rainfall
for parts of East Gippsland, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:09 pm Thursday, 13 February 2025.
Heavy falls are possible over the northeast ranges from early Friday morning.
Weather Situation
A surface trough is moving into Eastern Victoria tonight, drawing in a humid airmass from the north. Areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms are forecast to increase overnight into Friday morning. This rainfall is forecast to gradually clear from the west in the late morning or early afternoon.
HEAVY RAINFALL for the following areas:
East Gippsland, North East and West and South Gippsland
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from early Friday morning in the warning area. 6 hourly rainfall totals between 30 to 55 mm are likely, with isolated falls of up to 70 mm possible. 24 hourly rainfall totals of 40 to 80 mm are also likely, with isolated falls up to 100mm possible.
HEAVY RAINFALL is expected to contract to the NSW side of the border by around Friday afternoon.
Locations which may be affected include Corryong, Bright, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham and Omeo.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Stay indoors and away from windows.
* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 am AEDT Friday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Bairnsdale (37.8251°S, 147.629°E, 7m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
17° 22° Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:10am EDT 6:37am EDT 8:10pm EDT 8:38pm EDT NOW18.6° Feels Like: 19.7° Relative Humidity: 92% Dew: 17.3° Wind: N 7km/h Gust: 9km/h Rainfall since 9am: 2.2mm Pressure: 1004.9hPa -
Today Weather
BairnsdaleNow19.1°cFeels Like:19.9°Wind:SW 6km/hGusts:6km/hHumidity:81%
17°Min22°MaxToday in BairnsdaleCloudy. Very high chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Heavy falls possible in the W. Winds NW/NE 15 to 25 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 23.Tomorrow
13°Min19°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds W/SW 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 20. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
- Severe Weather Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of East Gippsland, North East and West and South Gippsland
- Severe Weather Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of East Gippsland, North East and West and South Gippsland
- Gale Warning for East Gippsland Coast. Strong Wind Warning for West and Central coasts. Cancellation for Port Phillip
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Heavy falls possible in the W. Winds NW/NE 15 to 25 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 23.
Forecast for Bairnsdale (37.8251°S, 147.629°E, 7m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary 
Minimum 17° 13° 9° 9° 10° 12° 13° Maximum 22° 19° 18° 21° 23° 21° 21° Chance of rain 90% 70% 50% 5% 30% 20% 30% Likely amount 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate No Rating - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 10
(km/h)11
(km/h)25
(km/h)37
(km/h)23
(km/h)26
(km/h)14
(km/h)18
(km/h)13
(km/h)20
(km/h)11
(km/h)18
(km/h)13
(km/h)21
(km/h)Wind direction SSW S W WSW WSW SW WNW SSW WNW SW WNW S W SSE Relative humidity 93% 78% 71% 55% 68% 48% 68% 49% 77% 56% 77% 59% 80% 62% Dew point 18°C 17°C 11°C 8°C 7°C 6°C 8°C 9°C 12°C 13°C 12°C 12°C 13°C 12°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bairnsdale Rain Forecast
Bairnsdale 12-month Rainfall ForecastFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan20252026587677535646105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 14
ENSO status: La Niña-like conditions. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Negative. Trending slightly negative. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña-like pattern. Recent conditions show some atmosphere-ocean coupling, resulting in the US declaring a La Niña event has started. A La Niña typically increases rainfall over northern and eastern Australia, while reducing rainfall over southern coastal Australia and western Tas. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and does not play a part in Australia's climate during this time of year. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a negative phase. Recent forecasts show negative SAM is more likely to dominate for the remainder of summer, due to the polar vortex taking an unusually long time to recover from the stratospheric warming event in winter 2024. During summer, a negative SAM decreases rainfall over most of southeastern Australia, and increases rainfall for far southwest WA and western Tas. Rainfall outlooks are showing above average rainfall over large parts of the country during summer, with closer to average conditions for the southwest corner of WA, southern SA and Vic, and central parts of Tas.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Bairnsdale Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Feb 0916.6 °C 22.0 °C 31.4 mmMonday
Feb 1017.0 °C 19.5 °C 14.8 mmTuesday
Feb 1115.8 °C 24.5 °C 10.0 mmWednesday
Feb 1218.2 °C 28.5 °C 1.2 mmThursday
Feb 1317.9 °C 34.1 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bairnsdale minimum temp history (37.8251°S, 147.629°E, 7m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 39.3° 04/02/2025 Coldest this month 9.5° 01/02/2025 Hottest on record 46.2 07/02/2009 Coldest on record 3.5 27/02/1985 Hottest this year 39.8° 27/01/2025 Coldest this year 7.1° 03/01/2025 Long term average 25.5° Long term average 12.9° Average this month 28.8° Average this month 16.7° Hottest February On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.9° 2000 Coldest February on record Avg. min. temp. 10.0° 1985 Bairnsdale rainfall history (37.8251°S, 147.629°E, 7m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 31.4mm 09/02/2025 Total This Month 60.2mm
6.0 daysLong Term Average 44.3mm 8.8 days Wettest February on record 206.8mm 1994 Driest on record 5.6mm 1944 -
Year to Date
Bairnsdale Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Feb 95.0mm 17.8 day(s) Total For 2025 115.6mm 15.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2024 69.4mm 13.0 day(s) Wettest Day 31.4mm Feb 9 Lowest Temperature 7.1°C Jan 3 Highest Temperature 39.8°C Jan27 -
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Australia Radars
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Bairnsdale Climatology
Bairnsdale Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 25.9 25.5 23.9 20.7 17.6 15.0 14.7 15.8 17.9 20.0 21.9 23.8 20.2 Mean Min (°C) 13.2 12.9 11.4 8.9 6.6 4.7 4.0 4.5 5.9 7.6 9.8 11.4 8.4 Mean Rain (mm) 50.7 44.3 47.6 58.0 43.6 63.2 46.4 38.0 50.4 62.0 79.3 61.8 639.8 Mean Rain Days 9.0 8.8 10.0 12.7 14.8 15.4 14.8 14.4 14.0 13.7 12.0 11.2 150.0
