Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
Marine Wind Warning Summary for South Australia
Issued at 10:00 PM CDT on Monday 09 December 2019
for the period until midnight CDT Tuesday 10 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Tuesday 10 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Adelaide Metropolitan Waters and Gulf St Vincent
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 5:10 am CDT Tuesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Parafield Airport (34.7898°S, 138.635°E, 16m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY12° 30° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:26am CDT 5:55am CDT 8:21pm CDT 8:50pm CDT NOW16.1° Feels Like: 14.3° Relative Humidity: 78% Dew: 12.3° Wind: SSW 13km/h Gust: 18km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1018.8hPa -
Today Weather
Parafield AirportNow17.4°cFeels Like:14.6°Wind:SSW 17km/hGusts:24km/hHumidity:68%12°Min30°MaxToday in Parafield AirportSome early cloud clearing to a sunny day. Winds S/SE 15 to 30 km/h, reaching 30 to 35 km/h about the foothills and S suburbs during the evening.Tomorrow11°Min30°MaxMostly sunny. Winds SE 25 to 35 km/h easing to 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning then tending S/SW 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Some early cloud clearing to a sunny day. Winds S/SE 15 to 30 km/h, reaching 30 to 35 km/h about the foothills and S suburbs during the evening.
Forecast for Parafield Airport (34.7898°S, 138.635°E, 16m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 12° 11° 12° 9° 11° 10° 12° Maximum 30° 30° 27° 24° 26° 28° 33° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 10% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 15
(km/h)21
(km/h)12
(km/h)21
(km/h)16
(km/h)26
(km/h)13
(km/h)24
(km/h)11
(km/h)22
(km/h)9
(km/h)21
(km/h)9
(km/h)19
(km/h)Wind direction S SSW SSE SW S SW SSW WSW SW WSW NE WSW ENE WSW Relative humidity 57% 24% 46% 23% 56% 31% 56% 37% 63% 36% 50% 22% 32% 12% Dew point 10°C 8°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 10°C 10°C 9°C 5°C 6°C 0°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Parafield Airport Rain Forecast
Parafield Airport 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
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LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
3
4
5
6
7
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Parafield Airport Rain Forecast
Parafield Airport 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020336753656666105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Parafield Airport Rain Forecast
Parafield Airport 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
3
4
5
6
7
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Parafield Airport Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Dec 0511.1 °C 27.5 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 068.9 °C 23.5 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 077.4 °C 29.8 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0815.5 °C 39.5 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0920.9 °C 26 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Parafield Airport minimum temp history (34.7898°S, 138.635°E, 16m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 39.0° 08/12/2019 Coldest this month 7.4° 07/12/2019 Hottest on record 44.2 17/12/2002 Coldest on record 5.6 05/12/1995 Hottest this year 47.7° 24/01/2019 Coldest this year -1.8° 24/06/2019 Long term average 27.8° Long term average 14.9° Average this month 26.0° Average this month 11.7° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.5° 2015 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 12.0° 2001 Parafield Airport rainfall history (34.7898°S, 138.635°E, 16m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 1.8mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 3.0mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 24.9mm 5.9 days Wettest December on record 89.6mm 2015 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for SA
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Year to Date
Parafield Airport Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 452.0mm 111.9 day(s) Total For 2019 277.4mm 96.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 308.8mm 111.0 day(s) Wettest Day 28.0mm Jun12 Lowest Temperature -1.8°C Jun24 Highest Temperature 47.7°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Parafield Airport Climatology
Parafield Airport Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 29.7 29.4 26.9 22.7 19.0 15.8 15.1 16.3 19.0 22.0 25.4 27.8 22.4 Mean Min (°C) 16.4 16.4 14.6 11.8 9.4 7.1 6.3 6.7 8.2 10.1 12.8 14.9 11.2 Mean Rain (mm) 21.5 19.4 22.8 37.5 47.5 53.8 59.6 53.8 44.4 40.6 26.2 24.9 450.7 Mean Rain Days 4.5 3.8 5.1 8.1 11.4 13.3 15.3 15.1 12.4 9.9 7.1 5.9 107.0