Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for Damaging, Locally Destructive Winds
for Lower Eyre Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, Lower South East and parts of Mount Lofty Ranges, Yorke Peninsula, Flinders, Upper South East and North East Pastoral districts.
Issued at 4:59 pm Wednesday, 22 January 2020.
Damaging Winds, Locally Destructive Gusts.
Weather Situation
A cold front in the south of the Northeast Pastoral and northeast of the Flinders will move further northeastwards this evening..
Another front will move across southern coastal districts early Thursday morning.
DAMAGING, LOCALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS for the following areas:
Mount Lofty Ranges, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Flinders, Kangaroo Island, Upper South East, Lower South East and North East Pastoral
Damaging northwesterly winds, averaging 60-70 km/h mainly in the North East Pastoral district, with damaging gusts of 90 to 125 km/h possible throughout the area. Squally thunderstorms may produce locally destructive wind gusts exceeding 125 km/h in the south of the Northeast Pastoral. Areas of thick raised dust, reducing visibility.
Damaging wind gusts mainly from the west to northwest of 90 to 125 km/h are possible with the passage of the front early Thursday morning across southern coastal districts.
Locations which may be affected include Port Lincoln, Mount Gambier, Kingscote, Naracoorte, Leigh Creek and Marree.
Thick raised dust with visibility down to 200 m has been reported between Peterborough and Yunta.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your property.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;
* Stay indoors, away from windows, while conditions are severe.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm ACDT Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Mount Lofty (34.9848°S, 138.7085°E, 627m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW
10° 16° clearing shower Chance of rain: 40% Likely amount: < 1mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 5:56am CDT 6:25am CDT 8:29pm CDT 8:57pm CDT NOW12.9° Feels Like: 10.6° Relative Humidity: 79% Dew: 9.4° Wind: W 11km/h Gust: 18km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Mount LoftyNow13.8°cFeels Like:10.8°Wind:W 18km/hGusts:33km/hHumidity:89%
10°Min16°MaxToday in Mount LoftyPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the morning. Winds W 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 21.Tomorrow
10°Min16°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower about the southern Fleurieu Peninsula, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 14 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the morning. Winds W 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 21.
Forecast for Mount Lofty (34.9848°S, 138.7085°E, 627m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary 
Minimum 10° 10° 11° 11° 11° 11° 11° Maximum 16° 19° 22° 25° 26° 23° 29° Chance of rain 40% 20% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 36
(km/h)28
(km/h)21
(km/h)19
(km/h)14
(km/h)15
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)10
(km/h)18
(km/h)14
(km/h)18
(km/h)14
(km/h)13
(km/h)Wind direction W WSW W W WNW W S WSW SE WSW SSW SW ESE S Relative humidity 72% 48% 73% 57% 82% 52% 81% 47% 74% 40% 73% 47% 68% 31% Dew point 7°C 5°C 9°C 10°C 12°C 11°C 12°C 13°C 12°C 12°C 11°C 12°C 10°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Mount Lofty Rain Forecast
Mount Lofty 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT22
MEDIUM23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
LOWFeb 1
2
3
4
5
LOW6
7
8
LOW9
LOW10
11
12
LOW13
14
15
LOW16
LOW17
18
19
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 January to 3 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Mount Lofty Rain Forecast
Mount Lofty 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2020767657666657105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 14
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Mount Lofty Rain Forecast
Mount Lofty 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT22
MEDIUM23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
LOWFeb 1
2
3
4
5
LOW6
7
8
LOW9
LOW10
11
12
LOW13
14
15
LOW16
LOW17
18
19
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 January to 3 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Mount Lofty Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Jan 189.2 °C 23.6 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Jan 1910.8 °C 16.1 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2011.1 °C 13.4 °C 33.6 mmTuesday
Jan 219.9 °C 22.3 °C 3.0 mmWednesday
Jan 2211.2 °C 20 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Mount Lofty minimum temp history (34.9848°S, 138.7085°E, 627m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 39.0° 11/01/2020 Coldest this month 8.0° 01/01/2020 Hottest on record 44.5 28/01/2009 Coldest on record 2.6 31/01/1992 Hottest this year 39.0° 11/01/2020 Coldest this year 8.0° 01/01/2020 Long term average 27.4° Long term average 12.3° Average this month 29.5° Average this month 11.9° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 31.9° 2001 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 8.9° 1957 Mount Lofty rainfall history (34.9848°S, 138.7085°E, 627m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 34.2mm 20/01/2020 Total This Month 41.8mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 25.2mm 5.7 days Wettest January on record 156.9mm 2001 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for SA
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Year to Date
Mount Lofty Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 25.2mm 5.7 day(s) Total For 2020 41.8mm 2.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2019 0.6mm 2.0 day(s) Wettest Day 34.2mm Jan20 Lowest Temperature 8.0°C Jan 1 Highest Temperature 39.0°C Jan11 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Mount Lofty Climatology
Mount Lofty Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.4 27.2 24.6 20.8 16.8 14.1 13.1 14.3 16.7 19.7 22.9 25.1 20.2 Mean Min (°C) 12.3 12.3 10.8 8.6 7.0 5.4 4.8 5.2 6.2 7.5 9.2 10.9 8.3 Mean Rain (mm) 25.2 25.2 30.2 57.7 83.0 99.9 106.4 101.1 85.7 65.0 40.0 35.1 752.0 Mean Rain Days 5.7 5.0 7.1 10.7 14.1 16.2 17.2 17.4 14.6 12.6 8.8 7.3 133.0
