Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland
Moderate Flood Warning For The Lower Dawson River
Issued at 12:17 PM EST on Sunday 01 March 2020
Flood Watch Number: 11
A peak around the moderate flood level is likely on the Dawson River at Baralaba overnight Sunday into Monday.
No significant rainfall has been recorded over the warning area in the 24 hours to 9 am Sunday and no significant rainfall is expected over the next few days.
Dawson River to Theodore:
River levels are easing across the upper Dawson River.
The Dawson River at Taroom fell below the minor flood level (4.50 m) overnight Saturday into Sunday. River levels will continue to ease over the next few days.
The Dawson River at Theodore is currently at 7.80 metres and falling, after easing below the minor flood level (8.00 m) on Sunday morning.
River levels are expected to continue easing slowly over the next few days.
Dawson River downstream of Theodore:
Minor to moderate flooding is expected along the Dawson River downstream of Theodore, with the main flood peak approaching Bindaree.
The Dawson River at Moura is currently at 7.70 metres and falling, following a minor flood peak on Saturday.
The river level is expected to remain above the minor flood level (6.00 m) during Sunday and Monday.
No observations are available at the Baralaba manual gauge but the river level is expected to be well above the minor flood level (4.0 metres) and rising based on the nearby automatic gauge.
The Dawson River at Baralaba manual gauge is likely to peak around the moderate flood level (7.50 metres) overnight Sunday into Monday.
Connors and Isaac Rivers:
River levels continue to ease along the Connors and Isaac Rivers.
Mackenzie River:
River levels continue to ease in the lower Mackenzie River at Tartrus.
Fitzroy River:
Small river rises are occurring along the Fitzroy River below the junction of the Dawson and Mackenzie Rivers.
The Fitzroy River at Rockhampton will remain below the minor flood level (7.00 m).
Flood Safety Advice:
Remember: If it's flooded, forget it. For flood emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500. For life threatening emergencies, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.}
Current emergency information is available at www.qld.gov.au/alerts
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 12:00 pm EST on Monday 02 March 2020.
Latest River Heights:
Mackenzie R at Bedford Weir TW TM,2.839,Falling,10:05 AM SUN 01/03/20
Mackenzie R at Bingegang Weir TW TM,2.33,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Mackenzie R at Bingegang Weir HW Alert,7.90,Steady,11:19 AM SUN 01/03/20
Isaac R at Yatton TM,6.31,Falling,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Mackenzie R at Tartrus TM,6.83,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Dawson R at Utopia Downs TM,3.29,Falling,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Dawson R at Tarana Crossing Alert,3.79,Rising,07:41 AM SUN 01/03/20
Juandah Ck at Windamere TM,1.44,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Dawson R at Taroom TM,4.12,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Dawson R at Gyranda Weir TM,1.00,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Dawson R at Theodore Weir TM,7.80,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Dawson R at Moura,7.70,Falling,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Dawson R at Moura Weir TM,1.56,Steady,10:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Mimosa Ck at Karamea Alert,3.21,Falling,12:00 PM SUN 01/03/20
Dawson R at Baralaba TW TM,7.46,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Callide Ck at Callide Dam HW TM,-10.34,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Dawson R at Knebworth TM,7.08,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Fitzroy R at Riverslea TM,8.36,Falling,11:00 AM SUN 01/03/20
Port Alma Tide TM,3.80,Steady,11:36 AM SUN 01/03/20
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts.
Forecast
Rockhampton (23.3789°S, 150.5123°E, 2m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TOMORROW22° 34° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 5:32am EST 5:54am EST 6:26pm EST 6:49pm EST NOW29.0° Feels Like: 28.5° Relative Humidity: 49% Dew: 17.5° Wind: NE 15km/h Gust: 19km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1011.0hPa -
Today Weather
RockhamptonNow28.2°cFeels Like:29.1°Wind:ENE 20km/hGusts:24km/hHumidity:70%22°Min34°MaxToday in RockhamptonMostly sunny. Light winds becoming E 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 19 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s.Tomorrow22°Min34°MaxHot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower near the coast, near zero chance elsewhere. Light winds becoming SE 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending E 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
-
7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming E 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 19 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s.
Forecast for Rockhampton (23.3789°S, 150.5123°E, 2m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 22° 23° 24° 25° 25° 25° 25° Maximum 34° 34° 32° 33° 33° 33° 34° Chance of rain 30% 40% 60% 70% 90% 90% 90% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 10-20mm 5-10mm 5-10mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 13
(km/h)16
(km/h)16
(km/h)20
(km/h)20
(km/h)21
(km/h)14
(km/h)15
(km/h)8
(km/h)10
(km/h)5
(km/h)10
(km/h)8
(km/h)13
(km/h)Wind direction SE E ESE E ESE E E ENE NE ENE E E ESE E Relative humidity 67% 47% 68% 52% 72% 63% 76% 62% 73% 62% 78% 67% 77% 58% Dew point 22°C 21°C 22°C 22°C 23°C 24°C 24°C 25°C 24°C 25°C 25°C 26°C 24°C 24°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Rockhampton Rain Forecast
Rockhampton 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATMar 1
2
3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
HIGH7
HIGH8
LOW9
LOW10
MEDIUM11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
LOW20
LOW21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 1Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 March to 20 March, 26 March to 30 March, and 30 March to 3 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 March to 14 March, and 4 April to 8 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 March to 12 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Rockhampton Rain Forecast
Rockhampton 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2020202167677785527105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 12
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout January with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 as per December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 1.3 in January. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, cooling even further by mid 2020. Six out of eight international models continue to maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of the year, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, which is what you will expect for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values until the austral winter, with indications we could see another positive event late winter/spring. However, the skill of the models is low at this time of the year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours average-to-below average rainfall for parts of inland NSW and Qld for the end of summer and autumn. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) had its latest onset on record in early February at Darwin (by its technical definition) with the current prognosis suggesting another below average wet season for northern Australia. The northern half of the country however, could see a wet end to the wet season compared to the season thus far. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter.
-
Long range rainfall forecast
Rockhampton Rain Forecast
Rockhampton 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATMar 1
2
3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
HIGH7
HIGH8
LOW9
LOW10
MEDIUM11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
LOW20
LOW21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 1Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 March to 20 March, 26 March to 30 March, and 30 March to 3 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 March to 14 March, and 4 April to 8 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 March to 12 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Past 5 Days
Rockhampton Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Feb 2624.0 °C 32.8 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Feb 2724.8 °C 33.7 °C 0.4 mmFriday
Feb 2823.6 °C 33.7 °C 17.0 mmSaturday
Feb 2924.3 °C 32.3 °C 0.2 mmSunday
Mar 0123.0 °C 32 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Rockhampton minimum temp history (23.3789°S, 150.5123°E, 2m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month - Coldest this month 23.0° 01/03/2020 Hottest on record 42.1 08/03/1995 Coldest on record 11.0 23/03/1943 Hottest this year 39.1° 19/01/2020 Coldest this year 20.7° 17/01/2020 Long term average 30.5° Long term average 20.9° Average this month - Average this month 23.0° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 33.4° 1995 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 18.2° 1943 Rockhampton rainfall history (23.3789°S, 150.5123°E, 2m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/03/2020 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 106.4mm 10.2 days Wettest March on record 447.4mm 1990 Driest on record 2.3mm 1960 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for QLD
-
Year to Date
Rockhampton Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 383.3mm 33.7 day(s) Total For 2020 260.8mm 32.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2019 92.2mm 18.0 day(s) Wettest Day 55.2mm Feb 9 Lowest Temperature 20.7°C Jan17 Highest Temperature 39.1°C Jan19 -
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Climate History
Rockhampton Climatology
Rockhampton Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 32.0 31.3 30.5 28.8 26.0 23.5 23.2 24.8 27.4 29.7 31.3 32.2 28.4 Mean Min (°C) 22.2 22.2 20.9 18.0 14.3 11.0 9.6 10.7 13.7 17.0 19.6 21.2 16.7 Mean Rain (mm) 131.1 145.8 106.4 43.3 46.3 38.6 31.9 27.8 25.0 47.7 67.2 105.0 815.9 Mean Rain Days 11.3 12.2 10.2 6.8 6.5 5.5 5.8 4.8 4.4 6.4 7.8 9.6 90.2