Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland
Minor Flood Warning For The Lower Dawson River
Issued at 12:34 PM EST on Sunday 22 May 2022
Flood Watch Number: 3
MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT BARALABA DURING SUNDAY
Isolated rainfall totals up to 28 mm were recorded in the upper Dawson River catchment in the 24 hours to 9:00 am Sunday, with no significant totals recorded elsewhere in the Dawson River catchment.
Showers are possible for the next few days, but no significant rainfall totals are expected.
Dawson River downstream of Theodore:
Minor flooding is expected to be continuing along the lower Dawson River around Baralaba.
There are no current river level readings available for the Dawson River at the Baralaba manual gauge, but based on the river level data at the nearby automatic gauge, the river level is expected to be above the minor flood level (4.00 m) and easing.
The Dawson River at Baralaba may fall below the minor flood level (4.00 m) Sunday evening.
Dawson River at Moura:
Cancellation
Flood Safety Advice:
Remember: If it's flooded, forget it. For flood emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500. For life threatening emergencies, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.}
Current emergency information is available at www.qld.gov.au/alerts
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 02:00 pm EST on Monday 23 May 2022.
Latest River Heights:
Dawson R at Utopia Downs TM,1.777,Rising,10:00 AM SUN 22/05/22
Dawson R at Tarana Crossing Alert,1.335,Steady,09:45 AM SUN 22/05/22
Juandah Ck at Windamere TM,1.00,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 22/05/22
Dawson R at Taroom TM,1.60,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 22/05/22
Dawson R at Gyranda Weir TM,0.23,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 22/05/22
Dawson R at Theodore Weir TM,6.42,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 22/05/22
Dawson R at Moura Weir TM,0.42,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 22/05/22
Mimosa Ck at Karamea Alert,1.46,Steady,11:42 AM SUN 22/05/22
Dawson R at Baralaba TW TM,3.59,Falling,11:00 AM SUN 22/05/22
Dawson R at Knebworth TM,4.90,Falling,11:00 AM SUN 22/05/22
Fitzroy R at Riverslea TM,4.16,Steady,11:00 AM SUN 22/05/22
Port Alma Tide TM,2.51,Steady,11:39 AM SUN 22/05/22
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts.
Forecast
Emerald (23.5269°S, 148.1611°E, 175m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY16° 24° late shower Chance of rain: 50% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:13am EST 6:37am EST 5:30pm EST 5:54pm EST NOW16.7° Feels Like: 15.7° Relative Humidity: 94% Dew: 15.7° Wind: SE 15km/h Gust: 20km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm Pressure: 1017.9hPa -
Today Weather
EmeraldNow16.8°cFeels Like:15.0°Wind:S 17km/hGusts:20km/hHumidity:87%16°Min24°MaxToday in EmeraldCloudy. Slight chance of a shower during this afternoon and evening. Winds SE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 20 to 25.Tomorrow16°Min24°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming SE 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Slight chance of a shower during this afternoon and evening. Winds SE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 20 to 25.
Forecast for Emerald (23.5269°S, 148.1611°E, 175m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 16° 16° 15° 15° 14° 13° 13° Maximum 24° 24° 23° 24° 25° 25° 25° Chance of rain 50% 40% 50% 30% 10% 5% 5% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 21
(km/h)15
(km/h)22
(km/h)17
(km/h)18
(km/h)12
(km/h)16
(km/h)11
(km/h)14
(km/h)10
(km/h)9
(km/h)10
(km/h)10
(km/h)12
(km/h)Wind direction SSE SE SSE SE SSE ESE SSE SSE S SSW S WSW SSW W Relative humidity 81% 69% 83% 66% 85% 66% 85% 62% 82% 56% 78% 48% 69% 46% Dew point 17°C 17°C 16°C 17°C 16°C 16°C 16°C 16°C 16°C 15°C 15°C 13°C 13°C 12°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Emerald Rain Forecast
Emerald 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jun 1
LOW2
LOW3
HIGH4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
LOW19
20
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 6 June to 10 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 May to 28 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Emerald Rain Forecast
Emerald 12-month Rainfall ForecastMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr202220231099988726668105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued May 11
ENSO status: La Niña, it is expected return to neutral state by early winter. IOD status: Neutral, models suggest it could enter a negative phase in the next month. SAM status: Positive and is expected to remain positive for the next month or so. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña phase and has not changed in strength during the past two weeks. La Niña events typically breaks down in autumn and while this current La Niña is persisting longer than usual, most models suggest it should end by early winter. However, one seasonal model operated by the U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) suggests that a La Niña-like signal could linger in the Pacific Ocean through the middle of the year and possibly remerge in the Southern Hemisphere’s spring. That being said, it is important to note that seasonal forecast models have lower accuracy at this time of year. This is called the autumn predictability barrier. The La Niña forecast will increase the likelihood of above-average rain in northern and eastern Australia during the remainder of Autumn, possibly into winter. Even as La Niña weakens it should continue to influence our climate. all five climate models suggest a negative phase will begin during late autumn or early winter. Climate models are forecasting strong negative IOD values by August, with the negative IOD event possibly lingering into spring. While a neutral IOD has little influence on our climate, a negative IOD increases the chance of above average autumn and winter rain for much of Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except southwest WA, parts of TAS and VIC. If a negative IOD does develop this winter, it will increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia, especially areas that had a wet summer and autumn.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Emerald Rain Forecast
Emerald 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jun 1
LOW2
LOW3
HIGH4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
LOW19
20
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 6 June to 10 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 18 June to 22 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 May to 28 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Emerald Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
May 1817.0 °C 27.2 °C 0.0 mmThursday
May 1914.2 °C 25.2 °C 0.0 mmFriday
May 2016.0 °C 24.2 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
May 2115.9 °C 20.9 °C 7.4 mmSunday
May 2215.5 °C 24.8 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Emerald minimum temp history (23.5269°S, 148.1611°E, 175m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 30.4° 05/05/2022 Coldest this month 13.4° 08/05/2022 Hottest on record 34.3 04/05/2007 Coldest on record 2.0 29/05/2000 Hottest this year 42.1° 03/03/2022 Coldest this year 13.4° 08/05/2022 Long term average 26.4° Long term average 13.1° Average this month 26.1° Average this month 17.6° Hottest May On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.5° 2016 Coldest May on record Avg. min. temp. 10.3° 2011 Emerald rainfall history (23.5269°S, 148.1611°E, 175m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 63.4mm 11/05/2022 Total This Month 142.4mm
7.0 daysLong Term Average 18.2mm 3.5 days Wettest May on record 66.6mm 2005 Driest on record 0.0mm 2016 -
Year to Date
Emerald Year To Date
Average Rainfall To May 272.3mm 29.8 day(s) Total For 2022 294.6mm 25.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2021 171.6mm 31.0 day(s) Wettest Day 63.4mm May11 Lowest Temperature 13.4°C May 8 Highest Temperature 42.1°C Mar 3 -
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Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
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- Darwin Airport
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Emerald Climatology
Emerald Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 34.7 33.9 32.9 30.0 26.4 23.4 23.5 25.6 29.1 32.0 33.5 34.5 29.9 Mean Min (°C) 22.3 22.1 20.5 17.1 13.1 10.3 9.1 10.1 13.6 17.2 19.6 21.5 16.3 Mean Rain (mm) 80.4 84.8 58.9 30.0 18.2 29.1 16.6 19.9 25.1 44.4 55.8 80.1 549.9 Mean Rain Days 7.6 8.5 6.0 4.2 3.5 4.4 2.8 2.8 3.2 5.6 7.2 7.8 64.1