Forecast
Emerald (23.5269°S, 148.1611°E, 175m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY20° 36° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:48am EST 5:13am EST 6:45pm EST 7:10pm EST NOW18.4° Feels Like: 18.2° Relative Humidity: 91% Dew: 16.9° Wind: E 13km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1016.6hPa -
Today Weather
EmeraldNow20.0°cFeels Like:20.6°Wind:E 9km/hGusts:11km/hHumidity:83%20°Min36°MaxToday in EmeraldSunny. Winds E/SE 15 to 20 km/h tending E/NE 25 to 35 km/h during the day. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid to high 30s.Tomorrow20°Min35°MaxMostly sunny. Winds E/NE 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming E 20 to 30 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Emerald
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny. Winds E/SE 15 to 20 km/h tending E/NE 25 to 35 km/h during the day. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid to high 30s.
Forecast for Emerald (23.5269°S, 148.1611°E, 175m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 20° 20° 21° 20° 21° 21° 21° Maximum 36° 35° 35° 34° 35° 35° 34° Chance of rain 5% 10% 5% 5% 5% 10% 30% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Fire Danger Rating High High High High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 21
(km/h)26
(km/h)18
(km/h)20
(km/h)23
(km/h)26
(km/h)24
(km/h)26
(km/h)23
(km/h)22
(km/h)21
(km/h)20
(km/h)17
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction E E E E E E E E E E E ENE ENE ENE Relative humidity 57% 29% 59% 32% 58% 33% 55% 38% 57% 37% 59% 37% 60% 37% Dew point 18°C 15°C 18°C 16°C 18°C 16°C 17°C 17°C 19°C 18°C 19°C 18°C 19°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Emerald Rain Forecast
Emerald 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT8
9
10
LOW11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 7Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2023-12-09, 2023-12-17 and 2023-12-30. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2023-12-23, 2023-12-27 and 2024-01-01. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2023-12-07, 2023-12-21 and 2023-12-26.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Emerald Rain Forecast
Emerald 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov202320244646768891076105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 5
ENSO status: El Niño, reached a strong event. IOD status: Positive IOD, starting to weaken. SAM status: Neutral, trending positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño, with all international models indicating this event will continue until at least April 2024. Ocean warming is continuing to occur in the eastern and central Pacific and has reached the threshold for a 'strong event'. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has reduced further and is comfortably below the El Niño threshold, especially over the last 90-days. El Niño only has a limited effect on rainfall during summer, drying Far North Qld, increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor, and having little effect elsewhere. El Niño also typically delays the first monsoon onset and reduces the number of tropical cyclones impacting Australia, but otherwise has little effect on Australia during January and February. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a positive phase but is weakening from its peak in late October. Winds areexpected to weaken with the current tropical activity, but generally SE wind near Jakarta should maintain the event The IOD typically takes 3-6 weeks to decay, so could persist into the start of 2024. However, the first monsoon onset over northern Australia will still sever its effect on Australia. A positive IOD greatly reduces the formation of northwest cloudbands, leading to reductions in spring rainfall over northern WA, central Aus, and the southeast. A positive IOD often has a compound effect with El Niño, reducing rainfall even further. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral. It is expected to favour a positive event for the remainder of December. Longer-term, since negative SAM events become more likely during El Niño, models suggest it becoming strongly negative around February. A negative phase tends to increase cold front activity over southern Australia, increasing rainfall over southern Vic, western Tas, and southeast SA, while decreasing it for eastern NSW and Qld. The opposite occurs in a positive event, with easterly winds more likely, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east, but reducing it in southern and Western Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting above average rainfall for eastern NSW & Qld, below average rainfall over the Tas and far northern Australia, and average elsewhere in December. Large rainfall deficits are expected over northern Australia from December, likely with a delayed initial monsoon onset. Rainfall is forecast to be above average in the NT and NSW during January, with average to slightly below average elsewhere, with drier than normal conditions forecast throughout in February.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Emerald Rain Forecast
Emerald 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT8
9
10
LOW11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 7Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2023-12-09, 2023-12-17 and 2023-12-30. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2023-12-23, 2023-12-27 and 2024-01-01. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2023-12-07, 2023-12-21 and 2023-12-26.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Emerald Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Dec 0322.5 °C 35.5 °C 2.8 mmMonday
Dec 0422.4 °C 36.6 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 0522.6 °C 34.1 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0621.2 °C 34.0 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0719.6 °C 34.0 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Emerald minimum temp history (23.5269°S, 148.1611°E, 175m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 36.6° 04/12/2023 Coldest this month 19.6° 07/12/2023 Hottest on record 43.0 25/12/2001 Coldest on record 12.3 27/12/2006 Hottest this year 41.1° 16/11/2023 Coldest this year 4.6° 09/07/2023 Long term average 34.4° Long term average 21.4° Average this month 34.9° Average this month 21.6° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 38.0° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 19.7° 1999 Emerald rainfall history (23.5269°S, 148.1611°E, 175m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 2.8mm 03/12/2023 Total This Month 4.6mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 81.2mm 7.7 days Wettest December on record 263.8mm 2010 Driest on record 0.0mm 2019 -
Year to Date
Emerald Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 557.7mm 64.0 day(s) Total For 2023 569.4mm 60.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2022 811.2mm 64.0 day(s) Wettest Day 61.6mm Feb 1 Lowest Temperature 4.6°C Jul 9 Highest Temperature 41.1°C Nov16 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Emerald Climatology
Emerald Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 34.6 33.9 32.9 30.0 26.4 23.5 23.4 25.6 29.1 32.0 33.4 34.4 29.9 Mean Min (°C) 22.3 22.1 20.6 17.1 13.1 10.4 9.2 10.1 13.6 17.2 19.5 21.4 16.4 Mean Rain (mm) 83.1 84.2 59.8 31.6 21.7 28.0 19.0 19.8 25.5 47.9 55.9 81.2 560.5 Mean Rain Days 7.8 8.5 6.0 4.2 3.6 4.3 3.1 2.9 3.3 5.5 7.1 7.7 64.2