Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory
Final Flood Watch For Bonaparte And North West Coastal Rivers
Issued at 10:51 AM CST on Sunday 01 March 2020
Flood Watch Number: 10
Many parts of the Bonaparte and North West Coastal Rivers have received rainfall totals of 150 - 200 mm and up to 250 mm in places during the past week with strong rises in rivers and streams seen in many catchments.
Rainfall is expected to return to isolated scattered showers and storms throughout the Bonaparte and North West Coastal Rivers.
River and stream levels are expected to generally ease in the Bonaparte and North Western Coastal Rivers over the next few days and return to normal wet season levels. Disruption to roads can be expected for some time and some communities and homesteads may remain isolated until road conditions improve.
Catchments likely to be affected include:
Victoria River below Kalkarindji
Fitzmaurice River
Lower Daly River
Daly River above Douglas River
Moyle River
See www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings to view all of the Bureau's current warning products.
More information on the Flood Watch Service and maps of Flood Watch areas are available at www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml .
Flood Safety Advice:
For emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones call 132 500.
Emergency information is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au .
The latest road conditions are available at www.roadreport.nt.gov.au .
The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
* Prepare for flooding and move away while safe to do so.
* Don't drive into floodwaters.}
Next issue:
This is a final Flood Watch, no further watches will be issued for this event.
Forecast
Katherine (14.4646°S, 132.2646°E, 100m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
25° 33° possible thunderstorm Chance of rain: 60% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:20am CST 6:42am CST 7:04pm CST 7:25pm CST NOW28.0° Feels Like: 30.9° Relative Humidity: 76% Dew: 23.4° Wind: N 13km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 4.4mm Pressure: 1007.1hPa -
Today Weather
KatherineNow29.1°cFeels Like:32.9°Wind:NE 13km/hGusts:19km/hHumidity:78%
25°Min33°MaxToday in KatherinePartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming N/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening.Tomorrow
25°Min33°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming NW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming N/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening.
Forecast for Katherine (14.4646°S, 132.2646°E, 100m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary 
Minimum 25° 25° 25° 25° 24° 25° 25° Maximum 33° 33° 32° 33° 35° 34° 34° Chance of rain 60% 60% 70% 70% 40% 60% 90% Likely amount 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 9
(km/h)11
(km/h)10
(km/h)17
(km/h)20
(km/h)27
(km/h)17
(km/h)21
(km/h)10
(km/h)12
(km/h)9
(km/h)11
(km/h)8
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction N NNW N NNW N NNW NNW WNW WNW W WSW SSW SSE SSE Relative humidity 78% 62% 81% 59% 79% 63% 79% 55% 79% 51% 75% 50% 72% 53% Dew point 24°C 25°C 24°C 24°C 24°C 24°C 23°C 23°C 23°C 23°C 23°C 23°C 23°C 24°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Katherine Rain Forecast
Katherine 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATMar 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
HIGH4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
HIGH7
HIGH8
HIGH9
MEDIUM10
HIGH11
HIGH12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
MEDIUM23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 1Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 March to 20 March, 26 March to 30 March, and 30 March to 3 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 March to 14 March, and 4 April to 8 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 March to 12 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Katherine Rain Forecast
Katherine 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan20202021688997888107105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 12
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout January with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 as per December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 1.3 in January. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, cooling even further by mid 2020. Six out of eight international models continue to maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of the year, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, which is what you will expect for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values until the austral winter, with indications we could see another positive event late winter/spring. However, the skill of the models is low at this time of the year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours average-to-below average rainfall for parts of inland NSW and Qld for the end of summer and autumn. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) had its latest onset on record in early February at Darwin (by its technical definition) with the current prognosis suggesting another below average wet season for northern Australia. The northern half of the country however, could see a wet end to the wet season compared to the season thus far. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Katherine Rain Forecast
Katherine 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISATMar 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
HIGH4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
HIGH7
HIGH8
HIGH9
MEDIUM10
HIGH11
HIGH12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
MEDIUM23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 1Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 March to 20 March, 26 March to 30 March, and 30 March to 3 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 March to 14 March, and 4 April to 8 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 March to 12 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Katherine Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Feb 2624.5 °C 31.3 °C 3.6 mmThursday
Feb 2724.5 °C 27.9 °C 36.2 mmFriday
Feb 2824.8 °C 34.6 °C 5.0 mmSaturday
Feb 2924.9 °C 34.5 °C 10.4 mmSunday
Mar 0125.6 °C 34 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Katherine minimum temp history (14.4646°S, 132.2646°E, 100m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month - Coldest this month 26.0° 01/03/2020 Hottest on record 38.9 10/03/2005 Coldest on record 14.5 27/03/2014 Hottest this year 40.9° 02/01/2020 Coldest this year 21.6° 17/02/2020 Long term average 34.3° Long term average 23.1° Average this month - Average this month 26.0° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 36.6° 1986 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 21.0° 2009 Katherine rainfall history (14.4646°S, 132.2646°E, 100m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.2mm 01/03/2020 Total This Month 0.2mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 167.7mm 11.5 days Wettest March on record 396.9mm 2004 Driest on record 3.2mm 1987 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NT
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Year to Date
Katherine Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 670.4mm 41.6 day(s) Total For 2020 303.2mm 35.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2019 348.2mm 32.0 day(s) Wettest Day 56.0mm Jan15 Lowest Temperature 21.6°C Feb17 Highest Temperature 40.9°C Jan 2 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Katherine Climatology
Katherine Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 34.1 33.8 34.3 34.0 32.3 30.1 30.2 32.2 35.8 37.7 37.4 35.6 34.0 Mean Min (°C) 24.3 24.0 23.1 20.6 17.5 14.3 13.6 15.0 19.9 23.9 24.9 24.8 20.5 Mean Rain (mm) 268.0 234.7 167.7 39.5 2.3 0.8 2.8 1.2 9.3 29.8 93.3 231.0 1072.5 Mean Rain Days 15.9 14.2 11.5 3.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.0 3.6 8.3 13.9 68.1
