Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Heavy Rainfall
for parts of Mid North Coast, North West Slopes and Plains, Hunter and Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:58 am Wednesday, 12 February 2025.
Severe thunderstorms developing in the northeast this afternoon.
Weather Situation
An upper-level trough located over the New South Wales coast combines with rich moisture and unstable conditions to generate thunderstorms over the far north of the state.
HEAVY RAINFALL for the following areas:
Mid North Coast, Hunter, North West Slopes and Plains and Northern Tablelands
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Tamworth, Nowendoc, Murrurundi and Quirindi.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
* If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
* Be aware that run-off from rainfall in fire affected areas may behave differently and be more rapid. It may also contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* After bushfires, heavy rain and the loss of foliage can make the ground soft and heavy, leading to a greater chance of landslides.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 2:00 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Willow Tree (31.6486°S, 150.7262°E, 423m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY17° 28° possible thunderstorm Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 10-20mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:07am EDT 6:33am EDT 7:50pm EDT 8:16pm EDT NOW16.9° Feels Like: 16.0° Relative Humidity: 100% Dew: 17.1° Wind: SE 17km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.4mm Pressure: 1015.2hPa -
Today Weather
Willow TreeNow26.1°cFeels Like:27.5°Wind:SE 9km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:65%17°Min28°MaxToday in Willow TreePartly cloudy. High chance of showers, becoming less likely in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe, with damaging winds, large hail and possible heavy falls in the afternoon and early evening. Winds N/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending E/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 26 to 34.Tomorrow18°Min31°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds E/NE 20 to 30 km/h becoming NE 25 to 35 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, becoming less likely in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe, with damaging winds, large hail and possible heavy falls in the afternoon and early evening. Winds N/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending E/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 26 to 34.
Forecast for Willow Tree (31.6486°S, 150.7262°E, 423m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 17° 18° 18° 19° 14° 9° 11° Maximum 28° 31° 32° 29° 25° 26° 29° Chance of rain 90% 90% 70% 70% 10% 10% 20% Likely amount 10-20mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 5
(km/h)8
(km/h)9
(km/h)9
(km/h)8
(km/h)9
(km/h)7
(km/h)11
(km/h)13
(km/h)16
(km/h)10
(km/h)9
(km/h)4
(km/h)7
(km/h)Wind direction ESE ESE ENE NE NE NNW NNW WSW SSW SW SSE SSW N WNW Relative humidity 85% 67% 71% 50% 70% 49% 86% 60% 69% 42% 66% 41% 70% 41% Dew point 19°C 22°C 18°C 20°C 17°C 20°C 19°C 19°C 11°C 11°C 8°C 11°C 13°C 14°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Willow Tree Rain Forecast
Willow Tree 12-month Rainfall ForecastFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan20252026568777669775105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 14
ENSO status: La Niña-like conditions. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Negative. Trending slightly negative. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña-like pattern. Recent conditions show some atmosphere-ocean coupling, resulting in the US declaring a La Niña event has started. A La Niña typically increases rainfall over northern and eastern Australia, while reducing rainfall over southern coastal Australia and western Tas. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and does not play a part in Australia's climate during this time of year. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a negative phase. Recent forecasts show negative SAM is more likely to dominate for the remainder of summer, due to the polar vortex taking an unusually long time to recover from the stratospheric warming event in winter 2024. During summer, a negative SAM decreases rainfall over most of southeastern Australia, and increases rainfall for far southwest WA and western Tas. Rainfall outlooks are showing above average rainfall over large parts of the country during summer, with closer to average conditions for the southwest corner of WA, southern SA and Vic, and central parts of Tas.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Willow Tree Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Feb 07- - -Saturday
Feb 08- - -Sunday
Feb 09- - -Monday
Feb 10- - -Wednesday
Feb 12- - 5.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Willow Tree minimum temp history (31.6486°S, 150.7262°E, 423m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.6° 05/02/2025 Coldest this month 14.5° 03/02/2025 Hottest on record 44.4 11/02/2017 Coldest on record 7.2 23/02/1993 Hottest this year 39.0° 29/01/2025 Coldest this year 14.0° 06/01/2025 Long term average 31.4° Long term average 16.6° Average this month 33.4° Average this month 17.8° Hottest February On Record Avg. max. temp. 36.1° 2017 Coldest February on record Avg. min. temp. 14.3° 1988 Willow Tree rainfall history (31.6486°S, 150.7262°E, 423m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 22.4mm 06/02/2025 Total This Month 22.4mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 65.0mm 5.9 days Wettest February on record 326.4mm 1955 Driest on record 0.0mm 1939 -
Year to Date
Willow Tree Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Feb 144.2mm 12.9 day(s) Total For 2025 155.5mm 12.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2024 111.0mm 12.0 day(s) Wettest Day 27.0mm Jan13 Lowest Temperature 14.0°C Jan 6 Highest Temperature 39.0°C Jan29 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Willow Tree Climatology
Willow Tree Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 32.6 31.4 29.3 25.3 20.7 16.9 16.3 18.4 21.8 25.5 28.3 31.1 24.8 Mean Min (°C) 17.2 16.6 14.1 9.6 5.8 3.2 2.0 2.8 5.6 9.3 12.6 15.2 9.4 Mean Rain (mm) 79.2 65.0 54.4 40.4 42.8 52.1 47.6 43.9 46.4 58.6 68.2 80.4 679.6 Mean Rain Days 7.0 5.9 5.3 4.8 5.5 7.4 7.3 6.8 6.2 7.1 7.4 7.3 78.0