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Forecast

Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Windy 6° 19°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light     		Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:13am EST 5:38am EST 5:53pm EST 6:17pm EST
    NOW
    9.9° Feels Like: 2.1°
    Relative Humidity: 57%
    Dew: 1.8°
    Wind: NW 32km/h
    Gust: 52km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.6mm
    Pressure:  

  3. Today Weather

    Tocal
    Now
    9.2°c
    Feels Like:
    1.3°
    Wind:
    NW 33km/h
    Gusts:
    54km/h
    Humidity:
    67%
    Windy
     
    6°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Today in Tocal
    Mostly sunny. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures between 13 and 19.
    Tomorrow
    Cloud increasing
    5°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Becoming cloudy. Winds W/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 19.

  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours

  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 35 to 55 km/h in the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures between 13 and 19.

    Forecast for Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Windy Cloud increasing Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly cloudy Showers Mostly sunny
    Minimum 6° 5° 5° 5° 8° 11° 10°
    Maximum 19° 19° 21° 23° 23° 27° 32°
    Chance of rain 5% 20% 5% 5% 60% 50% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index - - - - - - -
    Frost risk Nil Slight Slight Slight Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 31
    (km/h)     		27
    (km/h)     		15
    (km/h)     		14
    (km/h)     		4
    (km/h)     		7
    (km/h)     		4
    (km/h)     		10
    (km/h)     		5
    (km/h)     		8
    (km/h)     		13
    (km/h)     		16
    (km/h)     		8
    (km/h)     		9
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW W W SSE S SE E ESE NW NNW NW NW NW NW
    Relative humidity 48% 32% 49% 46% 55% 41% 55% 43% 64% 53% 59% 41% 52% 34%
    Dew point 1°C 1°C 3°C 5°C 6°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 10°C 12°C 12°C 13°C 13°C 14°C

  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    Oct 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep25

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 October to 6 October, 8 October to 12 October, and 27 October to 31 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 September to 27 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 September to 4 October, 22 October to 26 October, and 27 October to 31 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    2020
    2021
    5
    7
    7
    7
    7
    7
    7
    1
    7
    2
    7
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Sep 9

    ENSO status: La Niña Alert IOD status: Negative SAM status: Negative trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific have continued to cool through August, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.5. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 9.8 in the same month, a significant increase compared to July, tipping over the La Niña threshold of +7. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific during the Austral spring, with a high chance of a weak La Niña forming. All eight international models continue to suggest further cooling during spring, with three of these indicating La Niña conditions in September. A further two exceeding the La Niña threshold in October, with six of the eight indicating La Niña by November. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 57:41 chance for La Niña:Neutral conditions by the end of the Australspring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has shifted into a negative phase. Four of the six international models indicate a negative IOD to be sustained for the duration of the Austral spring, with the remaining two indicating a neutral phase. Both of the models that indicate a neutral phase trend towards the negative side of neutral. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short term outlook favours above average rainfall over the interior over the remainder of the first month of spring, particularly eastern WA and the Kimberley, western NT and western SA Above average rainfall is also favoured, although not as pronounced, over inland NSW and QLD and parts of the NSW and VIC coastal area. Drier than average conditions are expected across western WA as well as parts of northern coastal QLD and parts of the southeast. The remainder of spring is then likely to be wetter than average for NSW, QLD, VIC, SA, TAS, the NT and eastern WA, whilst drier than averageconditions look to persist further west. There are then indications of increased rainfall over WA toward the end of spring and into early summer, with the eastern two thirds of the country remaining wetter than average.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    Oct 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep25

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 October to 6 October, 8 October to 12 October, and 27 October to 31 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 September to 27 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 September to 4 October, 22 October to 26 October, and 27 October to 31 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Tocal Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Sep 21     		12.2 °C 27.2 °C
    10.6 mm
    Tuesday
    Sep 22     		14.8 °C 27.1 °C
    3.8 mm
    Wednesday
    Sep 23     		13.4 °C 23.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Sep 24     		9.5 °C 21.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Sep 25     		5.6 °C 25.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend

  14. Almanac

    Almanac

    Tocal minimum temp history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 29.5° 17/09/2020 Coldest this month 4.6° 02/09/2020
    Hottest on record 36.2 23/09/2003 Coldest on record -0.6 02/09/1971
    Hottest this year 46.0° 04/01/2020 Coldest this year 1.1° 27/08/2020
    Long term average 22.4° Long term average 8.9°
    Average this month 23.8° Average this month 10.3°
    Hottest September On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.8° 2013 Coldest September on record Avg. min. temp. 7.2° 1971
    Tocal rainfall history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 15.2mm 10/09/2020 Total This Month 34.0mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 47.5mm 7.9 days Wettest September on record 169.2mm 2008
    Driest on record 0.0mm 1980

  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Tocal Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Sep 703.9mm 95.5 day(s)
    Total For 2020 831.6mm 99.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 531.6mm 88.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 106.6mm Feb 9
    Lowest Temperature 1.1°C Aug27
    Highest Temperature 46.0°C Jan 4

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Tocal Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.8 28.9 27.1 24.3 20.8 17.8 17.3 19.3 22.4 25.1 26.8 29.0 24.0
    Mean Min (°C) 17.6 17.5 15.7 12.5 9.7 7.6 6.2 6.6 8.9 11.4 14.0 16.2 12.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 110.1 117.2 115.7 88.1 70.9 76.5 40.1 37.8 47.5 64.9 85.2 82.1 938.7
    Mean Rain Days 11.7 11.4 12.3 10.7 11.5 11.9 10.1 8.0 7.9 9.4 11.3 10.1 123.1

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