Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Marine Wind Warning Summary for New South Wales
Issued at 10:13 AM EDT on Monday 08 March 2021
for the period until midnight EDT Monday 08 March 2021
Wind Warnings for Monday 08 March
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Byron Coast, Coffs Coast, Macquarie Coast and Hunter Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Monday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY17° 31° late thunder Chance of rain: 50% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:23am EDT 6:47am EDT 7:21pm EDT 7:46pm EDT NOW25.7° Feels Like: 28.9° Relative Humidity: 66% Dew: 18.9° Wind: N 0km/h Gust: 0km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
TocalNow26.7°cFeels Like:27.9°Wind:NW 11km/hGusts:15km/hHumidity:64%17°Min31°MaxToday in TocalPartly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and early evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 26 to 31.Tomorrow20°Min31°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 20 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and early evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 26 to 31.
Forecast for Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 17° 20° 19° 18° 18° 18° 20° Maximum 31° 31° 25° 26° 26° 31° 31° Chance of rain 50% 60% 80% 80% 70% 80% 70% Likely amount 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 10-20mm 5-10mm < 1mm 5-10mm UV index - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 4
(km/h)13
(km/h)13
(km/h)9
(km/h)7
(km/h)14
(km/h)8
(km/h)10
(km/h)6
(km/h)7
(km/h)5
(km/h)4
(km/h)7
(km/h)10
(km/h)Wind direction NNW NW WNW SW SSE ESE E E NE E WNW NNW NNW NNW Relative humidity 81% 59% 76% 54% 92% 80% 90% 84% 93% 75% 89% 61% 76% 52% Dew point 20°C 22°C 20°C 20°C 20°C 21°C 20°C 22°C 20°C 22°C 21°C 23°C 20°C 20°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Tocal Rain Forecast
Tocal 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT8
MEDIUM9
MEDIUM10
MEDIUM11
HIGH12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
HIGH15
16
LOW17
LOW18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
MEDIUM30
MEDIUM31
Apr 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 March to 17 March, 22 March to 26 March, and 10 April to 14 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 March to 21 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 March to 17 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 10 April to 14 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Tocal Rain Forecast
Tocal 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20212022776667649547105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 5
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Tocal Rain Forecast
Tocal 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT8
MEDIUM9
MEDIUM10
MEDIUM11
HIGH12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
HIGH15
16
LOW17
LOW18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
MEDIUM30
MEDIUM31
Apr 1
LOW2
LOW3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 8Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 March to 17 March, 22 March to 26 March, and 10 April to 14 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 March to 21 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 March to 17 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 10 April to 14 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Tocal Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Mar 0414.1 °C 27.6 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Mar 0513.7 °C 27.3 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 0617.1 °C 27.3 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 0712.5 °C 27.3 °C 0.2 mmMonday
Mar 0816.3 °C 25.8 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Tocal minimum temp history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 32.1° 01/03/2021 Coldest this month 12.5° 07/03/2021 Hottest on record 41.2 09/03/1983 Coldest on record 7.7 31/03/2008 Hottest this year 37.9° 26/01/2021 Coldest this year 11.8° 17/01/2021 Long term average 27.1° Long term average 15.8° Average this month 27.2° Average this month 16.3° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.1° 1998 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 13.9° 2008 Tocal rainfall history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.2mm 07/03/2021 Total This Month 0.2mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 118.2mm 12.5 days Wettest March on record 350.2mm 2000 Driest on record 9.6mm 1981 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
- Broadmeadows
- Broome
- Cairns
- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
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Year to Date
Tocal Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 343.5mm 35.6 day(s) Total For 2021 285.2mm 39.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 397.0mm 32.0 day(s) Wettest Day 38.6mm Jan 5 Lowest Temperature 11.8°C Jan17 Highest Temperature 37.9°C Jan26 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Tocal Climatology
Tocal Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.0 29.0 27.1 24.3 20.8 17.8 17.4 19.4 22.5 25.2 26.9 29.1 24.1 Mean Min (°C) 17.8 17.6 15.8 12.6 9.7 7.6 6.2 6.6 8.9 11.5 14.0 16.3 12.0 Mean Rain (mm) 107.1 118.2 118.2 85.4 68.8 77.7 39.6 37.0 47.4 66.8 82.3 81.6 930.7 Mean Rain Days 11.7 11.4 12.5 10.8 11.4 12.3 10.0 7.9 8.1 9.8 11.3 10.4 127.5