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Forecast

Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Late thunder 17° 31°
    late thunder
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light     		Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:23am EDT 6:47am EDT 7:21pm EDT 7:46pm EDT
    NOW
    25.7° Feels Like: 28.9°
    Relative Humidity: 66%
    Dew: 18.9°
    Wind: N 0km/h
    Gust: 0km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  

  3. Today Weather

    Tocal
    Now
    26.7°c
    Feels Like:
    27.9°
    Wind:
    NW 11km/h
    Gusts:
    15km/h
    Humidity:
    64%
    Late thunder
     
    17°
    Min
    31°
    Max
    Today in Tocal
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and early evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 26 to 31.
    Tomorrow
    Late shower
    20°
    Min
    31°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 20 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30.

  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours

  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and early evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 26 to 31.

    Forecast for Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
      Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
    Summary Late thunder Late shower Possible shower Heavy showers Possible shower Showers increasing Thunderstorms
    Minimum 17° 20° 19° 18° 18° 18° 20°
    Maximum 31° 31° 25° 26° 26° 31° 31°
    Chance of rain 50% 60% 80% 80% 70% 80% 70%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 10-20mm 5-10mm < 1mm 5-10mm
    UV index - - - - - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 4
    (km/h)     		13
    (km/h)     		13
    (km/h)     		9
    (km/h)     		7
    (km/h)     		14
    (km/h)     		8
    (km/h)     		10
    (km/h)     		6
    (km/h)     		7
    (km/h)     		5
    (km/h)     		4
    (km/h)     		7
    (km/h)     		10
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNW NW WNW SW SSE ESE E E NE E WNW NNW NNW NNW
    Relative humidity 81% 59% 76% 54% 92% 80% 90% 84% 93% 75% 89% 61% 76% 52%
    Dew point 20°C 22°C 20°C 20°C 20°C 21°C 20°C 22°C 20°C 22°C 21°C 23°C 20°C 20°C

  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    HIGH
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    HIGH
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    Apr 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 March to 17 March, 22 March to 26 March, and 10 April to 14 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 March to 21 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 March to 17 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 10 April to 14 April.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    2021
    2022
    7
    7
    6
    6
    6
    7
    6
    4
    9
    5
    4
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Feb 5

    ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    HIGH
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    HIGH
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    Apr 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 March to 17 March, 22 March to 26 March, and 10 April to 14 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 March to 21 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 March to 17 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 10 April to 14 April.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Tocal Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Mar 04     		14.1 °C 27.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Mar 05     		13.7 °C 27.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Mar 06     		17.1 °C 27.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Mar 07     		12.5 °C 27.3 °C
    0.2 mm
    Monday
    Mar 08     		16.3 °C 25.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend

  14. Almanac

    Almanac

    Tocal minimum temp history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 32.1° 01/03/2021 Coldest this month 12.5° 07/03/2021
    Hottest on record 41.2 09/03/1983 Coldest on record 7.7 31/03/2008
    Hottest this year 37.9° 26/01/2021 Coldest this year 11.8° 17/01/2021
    Long term average 27.1° Long term average 15.8°
    Average this month 27.2° Average this month 16.3°
    Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.1° 1998 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 13.9° 2008
    Tocal rainfall history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.2mm 07/03/2021 Total This Month 0.2mm
    1.0 days
    Long Term Average 118.2mm 12.5 days Wettest March on record 350.2mm 2000
    Driest on record 9.6mm 1981

  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Tocal Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Mar 343.5mm 35.6 day(s)
    Total For 2021 285.2mm 39.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 397.0mm 32.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 38.6mm Jan 5
    Lowest Temperature 11.8°C Jan17
    Highest Temperature 37.9°C Jan26

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Tocal Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 30.0 29.0 27.1 24.3 20.8 17.8 17.4 19.4 22.5 25.2 26.9 29.1 24.1
    Mean Min (°C) 17.8 17.6 15.8 12.6 9.7 7.6 6.2 6.6 8.9 11.5 14.0 16.3 12.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 107.1 118.2 118.2 85.4 68.8 77.7 39.6 37.0 47.4 66.8 82.3 81.6 930.7
    Mean Rain Days 11.7 11.4 12.5 10.8 11.4 12.3 10.0 7.9 8.1 9.8 11.3 10.4 127.5

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