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Forecast

Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible thunderstorm 21° 38°
    possible thunderstorm
    Chance of rain: 40%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light     		Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:14am EDT 5:41am EDT 7:38pm EDT 8:06pm EDT
    NOW
    25.2° Feels Like: 25.9°
    Relative Humidity: 62%
    Dew: 17.4°
    Wind: NE 9km/h
    Gust: 13km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  

  3. Today Weather

    Tocal
    Now
    20.3°c
    Feels Like:
    22.0°
    Wind:
    SW 6km/h
    Gusts:
    6km/h
    Humidity:
    87%
    Possible thunderstorm
     
    21°
    Min
    38°
    Max
    Today in Tocal
    Hot and mostly sunny. Areas of haze in the morning, mainly about the Lower Hunter. Medium chance of showers about the Upper Hunter, slight chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds N/NE 15 to 20 km/h turning NW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then tending SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching 32 to 39.
    Tomorrow
    Fog then sunny
    17°
    Min
    30°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 27 to 36.

  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours

  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Areas of haze in the morning, mainly about the Lower Hunter. Medium chance of showers about the Upper Hunter, slight chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds N/NE 15 to 20 km/h turning NW 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then tending SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching 32 to 39.

    Forecast for Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Possible thunderstorm Fog then sunny Showers Late thunder Late shower Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
    Minimum 21° 17° 16° 17° 17° 13° 13°
    Maximum 38° 30° 25° 33° 39° 25° 31°
    Chance of rain 40% 90% 80% 60% 70% 10% 70%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index - - - - - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 14
    (km/h)     		12
    (km/h)     		6
    (km/h)     		13
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		4
    (km/h)     		8
    (km/h)     		12
    (km/h)     		20
    (km/h)     		10
    (km/h)     		13
    (km/h)     		6
    (km/h)     		9
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NW S S SE S SSE N NE NNW NW S SE E ESE
    Relative humidity 37% 38% 79% 56% 90% 74% 79% 49% 50% 29% 60% 52% 64% 46%
    Dew point 16°C 19°C 18°C 19°C 17°C 20°C 20°C 22°C 18°C 18°C 10°C 14°C 15°C 18°C

  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 November to 30 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 2 December to 6 December, and 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 November to 2 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 21 December to 25 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    3
    4
    5
    6
    5
    7
    6
    8
    7
    5
    6
    2
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 November to 30 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 2 December to 6 December, and 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 November to 2 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 21 December to 25 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Tocal Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Nov 17     		13.6 °C 26.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Nov 18     		12.5 °C 30.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 19     		12.0 °C 36.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 20     		18.6 °C 26.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 21     		16.1 °C 34 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend

  14. Almanac

    Almanac

    Tocal minimum temp history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 37.2° 12/11/2019 Coldest this month 8.0° 14/11/2019
    Hottest on record 43.9 23/11/2014 Coldest on record 5.3 28/11/1967
    Hottest this year 43.5° 26/01/2019 Coldest this year -0.3° 14/08/2019
    Long term average 26.8° Long term average 14.0°
    Average this month 30.1° Average this month 13.1°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.6° 2002 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 11.3° 1971
    Tocal rainfall history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 24.8mm 04/11/2019 Total This Month 24.8mm
    1.0 days
    Long Term Average 85.2mm 11.3 days Wettest November on record 336.0mm 2002

  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Tocal Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 854.0mm 116.2 day(s)
    Total For 2019 575.8mm 95.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 793.6mm 108.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 55.8mm Sep18
    Lowest Temperature -0.3°C Aug14
    Highest Temperature 43.5°C Jan26

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Tocal Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.8 28.9 27.1 24.3 20.8 17.8 17.3 19.3 22.4 25.1 26.8 29.0 24.0
    Mean Min (°C) 17.6 17.5 15.7 12.5 9.7 7.6 6.2 6.6 8.9 11.4 14.0 16.2 12.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 110.1 117.2 115.7 88.1 70.9 76.5 40.1 37.8 47.5 64.9 85.2 82.1 938.7
    Mean Rain Days 11.7 11.4 12.3 10.7 11.5 11.9 10.1 8.0 7.9 9.4 11.3 10.1 123.1

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