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Forecast

Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Rain 10° 21°
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 5-10mm
    First
    light     		Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:10am EST 5:35am EST 5:54pm EST 6:19pm EST
    NOW
    10.5° Feels Like: 10.4°
    Relative Humidity: 92%
    Dew: 9.3°
    Wind: N 0km/h
    Gust: 0km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  

  3. Today Weather

    Tocal
    Now
    9.5°c
    Feels Like:
    9.3°
    Wind:
    N 0km/h
    Gusts:
    0km/h
    Humidity:
    96%
    Rain
     
    10°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Tocal
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming N/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 16 and 22.
    Tomorrow
    Late thunder
    11°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending N/NW before dawn then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 25.

  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours

  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming N/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 16 and 22.

    Forecast for Tocal (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Rain Late thunder Thunderstorms Showers increasing Late shower Late shower Mostly cloudy
    Minimum 10° 11° 12° 11° 11° 12° 10°
    Maximum 21° 26° 26° 25° 27° 27° 23°
    Chance of rain 90% 60% 90% 70% 50% 40% 50%
    Likely amount 5-10mm 1-5mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index - - - - - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 3
    (km/h)     		4
    (km/h)     		5
    (km/h)     		8
    (km/h)     		5
    (km/h)     		6
    (km/h)     		10
    (km/h)     		8
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		16
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		19
    (km/h)     		20
    (km/h)     		19
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNE E N N NW N WNW WSW WNW WNW WNW W WNW W
    Relative humidity 69% 85% 77% 55% 69% 66% 67% 53% 75% 43% 62% 43% 54% 39%
    Dew point 12°C 16°C 15°C 16°C 15°C 16°C 14°C 14°C 12°C 13°C 13°C 13°C 6°C 8°C

  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    29
    HIGH
    30
    MEDIUM
    Oct 1
    HIGH
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    HIGH
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep28

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 October to 9 October, 19 October to 23 October, and 29 October to 2 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 October to 13 October, 22 October to 26 October, and 29 October to 2 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 October to 9 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 28 October to 1 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    2021
    2022
    7
    8
    9
    6
    6
    6
    6
    7
    6
    5
    7
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Sep 16

    ENSO status: Neutral, however five of seven models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again between October and January. IOD status: Neutral, returning from negative values in the recent weeks. SAM status: Positive. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, which has prompted the US Climate Prediction Centre to increase its prediction of La Niña occurring this year to 70-80 percent. However their thresholds are lower than the Bureau of Meteorology's. Five of seven models forecast temperatures may reach or exceed La Niña thresholds between October and January. Three of seven predicted an established event, which requires La Nina thresholds to be met for three months. La Niña typically brings above average rainfall in northern and eastern Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, returning from negative values in the recent weeks. Three of five models areforecasting the IOD event will officially end in October, with all models ending the event in December. A negative IOD generates above average rain to southern and eastern Australia. As such, average to above average rainfall is predicted across much of the country this winter and spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Tocal Rain Forecast

    Tocal 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    29
    HIGH
    30
    MEDIUM
    Oct 1
    HIGH
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    HIGH
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep28

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 October to 9 October, 19 October to 23 October, and 29 October to 2 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 October to 13 October, 22 October to 26 October, and 29 October to 2 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 October to 9 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 28 October to 1 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Tocal Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Sep 24     		12.8 °C 27.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Sep 25     		9.3 °C 26.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Sep 26     		11.3 °C 16.8 °C
    1.4 mm
    Monday
    Sep 27     		5.3 °C 20.5 °C
    1.4 mm
    Tuesday
    Sep 28     		6.7 °C 24.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend

  14. Almanac

    Almanac

    Tocal minimum temp history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 30.4° 12/09/2021 Coldest this month 4.4° 07/09/2021
    Hottest on record 36.2 23/09/2003 Coldest on record -0.6 02/09/1971
    Hottest this year 37.9° 26/01/2021 Coldest this year 0.5° 07/07/2021
    Long term average 22.5° Long term average 8.9°
    Average this month 23.7° Average this month 8.7°
    Hottest September On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.8° 2013 Coldest September on record Avg. min. temp. 7.2° 1971
    Tocal rainfall history (32.64°S, 151.5912°E, 19m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 23.0mm 14/09/2021 Total This Month 33.2mm
    7.0 days
    Long Term Average 47.4mm 8.1 days Wettest September on record 169.2mm 2008
    Driest on record 0.0mm 1980

  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Tocal Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Sep 702.1mm 96.1 day(s)
    Total For 2021 849.8mm 107.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 824.0mm 98.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 91.6mm Mar20
    Lowest Temperature 0.5°C Jul 7
    Highest Temperature 37.9°C Jan26

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Tocal Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 30.0 29.0 27.1 24.3 20.8 17.8 17.4 19.4 22.5 25.2 26.9 29.1 24.1
    Mean Min (°C) 17.8 17.6 15.8 12.6 9.7 7.6 6.2 6.6 8.9 11.5 14.0 16.3 12.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 107.2 118.8 121.8 84.5 68.7 77.2 39.3 37.2 47.4 66.8 82.3 81.6 930.7
    Mean Rain Days 11.7 11.6 12.5 10.7 11.3 12.3 10.0 7.9 8.1 9.8 11.3 10.4 127.5

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