Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Marine Wind Warning Summary for New South Wales
Issued at 04:05 PM EDT on Tuesday 19 March 2024
for the period until midnight EDT Wednesday 20 March 2024
Wind Warnings for Tuesday 19 March
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Hunter Coast, Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast, Batemans Coast and Eden Coast
Wind Warnings for Wednesday 20 March
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast, Batemans Coast and Eden Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Sydney Enclosed Waters, Macquarie Coast and Hunter Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:10 am EDT Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Kempsey (31.0806°S, 152.842°E, 10m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW19° 31° rain developing Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 20-40mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:28am EDT 6:52am EDT 7:00pm EDT 7:24pm EDT NOW21.4° Feels Like: 25.8° Relative Humidity: 100% Dew: 21.4° Wind: N 0km/h Gust: 0km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1017.9hPa -
Today Weather
KempseyNow23.0°cFeels Like:25.8°Wind:N 7km/hGusts:9km/hHumidity:89%19°Min31°MaxToday in KempseyBecoming cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h shifting S 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 31.Tomorrow19°Min31°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers in the N, medium chance elsewhere. Winds S/SE 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching between 17 and 24. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Becoming cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h shifting S 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 31.
Forecast for Kempsey (31.0806°S, 152.842°E, 10m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 19° 17° 16° 15° 17° 17° 16° Maximum 31° 24° 25° 26° 25° 28° 29° Chance of rain 90% 80% 60% 50% 40% 40% 80% Likely amount 20-40mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Very High Very High High High High High Fire Danger Rating No Rating No Rating No Rating No Rating - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 7
(km/h)10
(km/h)15
(km/h)16
(km/h)6
(km/h)8
(km/h)5
(km/h)9
(km/h)6
(km/h)7
(km/h)3
(km/h)9
(km/h)4
(km/h)9
(km/h)Wind direction N NE SSW SSW SW SE WSW SE WSW SE W ENE NW SE Relative humidity 82% 60% 80% 64% 81% 64% 81% 67% 85% 70% 79% 67% 73% 60% Dew point 20°C 22°C 15°C 17°C 17°C 18°C 17°C 19°C 18°C 19°C 20°C 21°C 18°C 20°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Kempsey Rain Forecast
Kempsey 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Kempsey Rain Forecast
Kempsey 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025777587658648105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Kempsey Rain Forecast
Kempsey 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Kempsey Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1519.0 °C 26.1 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Mar 1617.8 °C 26.4 °C 2.6 mmSunday
Mar 1718.6 °C 24.1 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 1818.7 °C 22.6 °C 2.6 mmTuesday
Mar 1918.2 °C 28.7 °C 11.4 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Kempsey minimum temp history (31.0806°S, 152.842°E, 10m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 33.2° 01/03/2024 Coldest this month 14.9° 13/03/2024 Hottest on record 42.0 19/03/2002 Coldest on record 9.2 31/03/2007 Hottest this year 41.2° 26/01/2024 Coldest this year 14.2° 08/01/2024 Long term average 27.4° Long term average 16.6° Average this month 28.1° Average this month 18.3° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.8° 2016 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 14.0° 2008 Kempsey rainfall history (31.0806°S, 152.842°E, 10m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 36.2mm 03/03/2024 Total This Month 64.2mm
8.0 daysLong Term Average 210.5mm 16.4 days Wettest March on record 454.6mm 2017 Driest on record 10.2mm 2016 -
Year to Date
Kempsey Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 488.2mm 45.1 day(s) Total For 2024 334.6mm 39.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 227.8mm 37.0 day(s) Wettest Day 55.2mm Feb25 Lowest Temperature 14.2°C Jan 8 Highest Temperature 41.2°C Jan26 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Kempsey Climatology
Kempsey Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 29.5 28.8 27.4 25.3 22.5 20.2 20.1 21.8 24.4 25.9 26.9 28.4 25.1 Mean Min (°C) 18.0 17.9 16.6 13.1 8.6 6.6 5.0 5.2 8.1 11.2 14.3 16.2 11.7 Mean Rain (mm) 115.2 162.5 210.5 68.2 59.7 111.6 42.8 45.1 43.1 84.9 102.7 106.6 1140.8 Mean Rain Days 13.8 14.9 16.4 13.9 11.2 12.7 9.9 7.6 8.5 11.0 12.9 14.0 145.7