Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Final Flood Warning For The Orara River
Issued at 03:17 PM EDT on Wednesday 03 March 2021
Flood Watch Number: 25
FLOODING HAS CEASED AT COUTTS CROSSING
River levels continue to ease along the Orara River at Coutts Crossing where flooding is no longer current.
No further flooding is expected.
Orara River:
No further flooding is expected in the Orara River.
Flood Safety Advice:
In life threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately. If you require rescue, assistance to evacuate or other emergency help, ring NSW SES on 132 500.
* Avoid drowning. Stay out of rising water, seek refuge in the highest available place.
* Prevent damage to your vehicle. Move it under cover, away from areas likely to flood.
* Avoid being swept away. Stay out of fast-flowing creeks and storm drains.
* Never drive, ride or walk through flood water. Flood water can be deceptive and dangerous.}
For more emergency information, advice, and access to the latest river heights and rainfall observations and forecasts:
* NSW SES: www.ses.nsw.gov.au
* RMS Live Traffic: www.livetraffic.com
* Latest River Heights and Rainfall Observations: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/northcoast.shtml
* Latest NSW Warnings: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/
* Rainfall Forecasts: www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
* BOM NSW Twitter: www.twitter.com/BOM_NSW
Next issue:
This is a final warning, no further warnings will be issued for this event.
Latest River Heights:
Orara River at Karangi,1.29,Steady,03:00 PM WED 03/03/21
Orara River at Glenreagh (Automatic Gauge),1.75,Steady,03:00 PM WED 03/03/21
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts.
Forecast
Evans Head (29.1157°S, 153.4291°E, 0m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY19° 25° Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:15am EDT 6:39am EDT 7:16pm EDT 7:40pm EDT NOW20.8° Feels Like: 21.4° Relative Humidity: 84% Dew: 18.0° Wind: SW 11km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.8hPa -
Today Weather
Evans HeadNow22.4°cFeels Like:23.6°Wind:SE 7km/hGusts:11km/hHumidity:75%19°Min25°MaxToday in Evans HeadPartly cloudy. High chance of showers during the morning and afternoon. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid 20s.Tomorrow18°Min28°MaxMostly sunny. The chance of fog inland in the early morning. Slight chance of a shower along the coastal fringe at night. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Light winds becoming E 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 16 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers during the morning and afternoon. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid 20s.
Forecast for Evans Head (29.1157°S, 153.4291°E, 0m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 19° 18° 20° 19° 19° 21° 21° Maximum 25° 28° 25° 26° 28° 30° 27° Chance of rain 80% 70% 70% 60% 30% 80% 90% Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 10-20mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 4
(km/h)17
(km/h)12
(km/h)13
(km/h)22
(km/h)27
(km/h)14
(km/h)17
(km/h)9
(km/h)22
(km/h)14
(km/h)21
(km/h)13
(km/h)19
(km/h)Wind direction SSE SE WNW ENE S S SW SSE NNW NE N NNE W SE Relative humidity 93% 66% 71% 54% 79% 72% 75% 65% 71% 61% 73% 63% 80% 77% Dew point 18°C 17°C 18°C 17°C 19°C 19°C 18°C 18°C 18°C 19°C 20°C 21°C 21°C 22°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Evans Head Rain Forecast
Evans Head 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
HIGH10
HIGH11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
MEDIUM22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
31
Apr 1
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Evans Head Rain Forecast
Evans Head 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2021202278867768757105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 5
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Evans Head Rain Forecast
Evans Head 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
HIGH10
HIGH11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
MEDIUM22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
31
Apr 1
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Evans Head Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Feb 2821.6 °C 33.9 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 0121.4 °C 28.3 °C 0.2 mmTuesday
Mar 0219.3 °C 29.9 °C 0.4 mmWednesday
Mar 0320.6 °C 24.6 °C 0.8 mmThursday
Mar 0417.8 °C 21.2 °C 34.4 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Evans Head minimum temp history (29.1157°S, 153.4291°E, 0m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 29.9° 02/03/2021 Coldest this month 19.3° 02/03/2021 Hottest on record 37.8 16/03/2014 Coldest on record 12.9 31/03/2008 Hottest this year 35.1° 05/01/2021 Coldest this year 16.5° 22/01/2021 Long term average 27.0° Long term average 19.0° Average this month 27.3° Average this month 20.4° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.7° 2015 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 17.2° 2008 Evans Head rainfall history (29.1157°S, 153.4291°E, 0m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.8mm 03/03/2021 Total This Month 1.4mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 204.5mm 17.4 days Wettest March on record 781.2mm 2017 Driest on record 58.4mm 2008 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
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Year to Date
Evans Head Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 518.6mm 45.3 day(s) Total For 2021 414.2mm 37.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 620.0mm 27.0 day(s) Wettest Day 99.4mm Feb20 Lowest Temperature 16.5°C Jan22 Highest Temperature 35.1°C Jan 5 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Evans Head Climatology
Evans Head Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 28.7 28.0 27.0 24.7 22.1 20.0 19.9 21.4 24.2 25.7 26.9 28.2 24.7 Mean Min (°C) 19.8 19.9 19.0 16.5 13.4 11.4 10.3 10.7 13.3 15.1 17.0 18.8 15.4 Mean Rain (mm) 141.8 172.3 204.5 162.7 99.7 192.6 77.1 79.3 52.4 93.5 112.3 107.5 1487.0 Mean Rain Days 13.2 14.7 17.4 15.1 13.5 13.7 10.7 8.9 9.7 11.5 12.1 12.9 151.9