Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts
Issued at 10:39 PM EST on Monday 29 April 2024
Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and southerly winds are expected during Tuesday. Areas likely to be affected include the Wimmera forecast district and parts of the Mallee, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EST Tuesday.
Forecast
Ayrford (38.4157°S, 142.8595°E, 94m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW11° 13° late shower Chance of rain: 40% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:43am EST 7:10am EST 5:40pm EST 6:08pm EST NOW11.0° Feels Like: 6.9° Relative Humidity: 65% Dew: 4.7° Wind: S 15km/h Gust: 19km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1029.9hPa -
Today Weather
AyrfordNow8.3°cFeels Like:5.9°Wind:SW 9km/hGusts:9km/hHumidity:93%11°Min13°MaxToday in AyrfordCloudy. Medium chance of showers near the Otways, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h turning SE 20 to 30 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15.Tomorrow11°Min13°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower near the Otways, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds SE 15 to 25 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching around 17. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Medium chance of showers near the Otways, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h turning SE 20 to 30 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15.
Forecast for Ayrford (38.4157°S, 142.8595°E, 94m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 11° 12° 12° 10° 11° 12° 12° Maximum 13° 15° 14° 16° 15° 15° 17° Chance of rain 40% 20% 30% 20% 60% 60% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 20
(km/h)20
(km/h)16
(km/h)21
(km/h)15
(km/h)17
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)12
(km/h)17
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)11
(km/h)13
(km/h)Wind direction S S SE SSE SE SSE ESE SE E SE E SE ESE ESE Relative humidity 65% 68% 73% 64% 76% 67% 80% 62% 80% 69% 81% 69% 79% 59% Dew point 6°C 8°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 9°C 10°C 10°C 11°C 10°C 10°C 9°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ayrford Rain Forecast
Ayrford 12-month Rainfall ForecastAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar202420256464565107966105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Apr 23
ENSO status: Inactive/Neutral. El Niño ended. IOD status: Neutral, becoming strongly positive. SAM status: Leading to neutral and returning positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is presently in an inactive phase, for the first time since August 2021. Ocean cooling continues over the eastern Pacific Ocean as sea surface temperatures approach near-normal conditions. Warmer than normal waters are present across the western Pacific Ocean, including the Coral Sea with added moisture and humidity to influence weather conditions in the eastern regions of Australia. The atmosphere continues to be firmly neutral after weakening early in the year with 3 out of 7 global models forecasting a La Niña to develop this coming winter season. A neutral ENSO typically has no significant impact on Australian rainfall during winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase, although record-high ocean temperatures across the northwest Indian Ocean have the IOD index just tipping into a positivethreshold value. Persistent southeasterly winds over the eastern Indian Ocean during the previous month are forecast to ease with below-average wind speeds to develop off northwest Australia and the eastern Indian Ocean during the winter season. All international models are suggesting the IOD will strengthen into a strong positive phase over the next 2-3 months, with significant upwelling to start near Indonesia possibly following May. A positive IOD reduces the number of northwest cloudbands that cross Australia during winter and spring, thus reducing rainfall across central and southeastern parts of Australia. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive (mid-April) with the outlook favouring a neutral phase forecast in May and then the likelihood of returning to a positive phase during winter. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. A positive SAM also reduces the impact of cold fronts and decreases the rainfall over southernAustralia. Rainfall outlooks are showing above-average rainfall over winter for WA and central and northern SA, and eastern regions of QLD and NSW. Conversely, below-average rainfall is expected for western TAS, southern SA, and most of VIC.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Ayrford Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Apr 259.0 °C 15.8 °C 8.2 mmFriday
Apr 269.0 °C 15.8 °C 1.2 mmSaturday
Apr 2710.6 °C 14.7 °C 0.2 mmSunday
Apr 284.1 °C 21.7 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Apr 2910.9 °C 16.1 °C 1.8 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ayrford minimum temp history (38.4157°S, 142.8595°E, 94m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 27.6° 23/04/2024 Coldest this month 2.9° 22/04/2024 Hottest on record 35.6 01/04/2014 Coldest on record 0.0 25/04/1999 Hottest this year 40.7° 09/03/2024 Coldest this year 2.5° 21/03/2024 Long term average 20.0° Long term average 9.1° Average this month 18.6° Average this month 9.3° Hottest April On Record Avg. max. temp. 23.2° 2005 Coldest April on record Avg. min. temp. 6.6° 1999 Ayrford rainfall history (38.4157°S, 142.8595°E, 94m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 9.0mm 24/04/2024 Total This Month 46.4mm
21.0 daysLong Term Average 53.1mm 15.5 days Wettest April on record 130.2mm 2011 Driest on record 1.2mm 2001 -
Year to Date
Ayrford Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Apr 169.2mm 46.0 day(s) Total For 2024 166.2mm 49.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 207.4mm 53.0 day(s) Wettest Day 74.6mm Jan 8 Lowest Temperature 2.5°C Mar21 Highest Temperature 40.7°C Mar 9 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Ayrford Climatology
Ayrford Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.6 24.6 23.1 20.0 16.5 14.1 13.5 14.4 16.1 18.0 20.4 22.5 19.0 Mean Min (°C) 12.0 12.3 11.0 9.1 7.4 5.9 5.5 5.9 6.8 7.6 9.2 10.3 8.6 Mean Rain (mm) 40.4 30.5 45.2 53.1 76.6 81.1 83.5 91.4 73.2 71.0 52.2 45.3 742.6 Mean Rain Days 9.1 8.7 12.7 15.5 20.4 20.3 21.8 21.8 19.2 18.0 13.7 12.2 193.6