Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania
Issued at 10:00 AM EST on Saturday 11 May 2024
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 11 May 2024
Wind Warnings for Saturday 11 May
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Far North West Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EST Saturday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Surprise Bay (40.1152°S, 143.916°E, 20m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY13° 17° Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:50am 7:19am 5:22pm 5:51pm NOW17.1° Feels Like: 9.2° Relative Humidity: 63% Dew: 10.0° Wind: E 41km/h Gust: 48km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1031.8hPa -
Today Weather
Surprise BayNow13.8°cFeels Like:6.3°Wind:E 41km/hGusts:48km/hHumidity:86%13°Min17°MaxToday in Surprise BayMostly sunny. Winds E 25 to 40 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 18.Tomorrow12°Min18°MaxPartly cloudy. Winds E/NE 20 to 30 km/h turning N 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 13 with daytime temperatures reaching around 19. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Winds E 25 to 40 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures around 18.
Forecast for Surprise Bay (40.1152°S, 143.916°E, 20m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 13° 12° 12° 11° 11° 10° 10° Maximum 17° 18° 17° 16° 17° 16° 16° Chance of rain 10% 50% 60% 10% 50% 50% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Fire Danger Rating - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 35
(km/h)33
(km/h)18
(km/h)21
(km/h)28
(km/h)32
(km/h)21
(km/h)24
(km/h)26
(km/h)29
(km/h)22
(km/h)26
(km/h)23
(km/h)26
(km/h)Wind direction E E ENE ENE WNW W WSW W WNW WNW WNW WNW W W Relative humidity 70% 65% 83% 74% 90% 70% 72% 66% 75% 74% 80% 75% 84% 74% Dew point 11°C 10°C 13°C 12°C 14°C 11°C 9°C 9°C 11°C 11°C 11°C 11°C 11°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Surprise Bay Rain Forecast
Surprise Bay 12-month Rainfall ForecastMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar2024202556455587855105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued May 1
ENSO status: Inactive. IOD status: Neutral, becoming positive. SAM status: Neutral, favouring positive in winter. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an inactive phase. Ocean cooling is occurring in the eastern Pacific, with 3 out of 7 global models forecasting a La Niña to develop in 2024. Warmer than normal waters are situated in the Coral Sea, providing moisture and humidity to the east coast. The atmosphere continues to be firmly neutral after weakening early in the year. A neutral ENSO typically has no significant impact on Australian rainfall during winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are at record levels in the western Indian Ocean, and the IOD index is spiking in response. Persistent southeasterly winds have set in over the eastern Indian Ocean, signalling that the atmosphere is starting to respond to the ocean patterns. A burst of tropical activity expected in mid-May could make-or-break this event, as tropical activity in certainlocations could either strengthen or hinder the development of a positive IOD. If this tropical activity is favourable for a positive IOD, significant upwelling near Indonesia may occur as soon as late-May. A positive IOD reduces the number of northwest cloudbands that cross Australia during winter and spring, reducing rainfall across central and southeastern parts of Australia. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral but is expected to favour a positive phase during winter. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east, while cooling temperatures. A positive SAM reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia, particularly for southwest WA. Rainfall outlooks are showing slightly below average rainfall over winter for WA, and the southwest coasts of SA, Vic and Tas. Conversely, above average rainfall is expected for eastern parts of Qld and NSW, and potentially eastern Tas.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Surprise Bay Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Tuesday
May 075.9 °C 18.1 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
May 089.5 °C 17.4 °C 0.0 mmThursday
May 0913.0 °C 18.9 °C 0.4 mmFriday
May 1014.4 °C 16.8 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
May 1115.1 °C 17.4 °C 2.4 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Surprise Bay minimum temp history (40.1152°S, 143.916°E, 20m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 18.9° 09/05/2024 Coldest this month 2.2° 02/05/2024 Hottest on record 22.6 08/05/2002 Coldest on record 1.2 22/05/2010 Hottest this year 35.6° 11/03/2024 Coldest this year 2.2° 02/05/2024 Long term average 15.6° Long term average 9.4° Average this month 17.2° Average this month 8.2° Hottest May On Record Avg. max. temp. 16.9° 2007 Coldest May on record Avg. min. temp. 7.8° 2006 Surprise Bay rainfall history (40.1152°S, 143.916°E, 20m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.6mm 05/05/2024 Total This Month 1.8mm
5.0 daysLong Term Average 89.6mm 19.1 days Wettest May on record 157.2mm 1975 Driest on record 31.4mm 1996 -
Year to Date
Surprise Bay Year To Date
Average Rainfall To May 260.3mm 63.4 day(s) Total For 2024 84.2mm 43.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 175.0mm 57.0 day(s) Wettest Day 10.8mm Mar20 Lowest Temperature 2.2°C May 2 Highest Temperature 35.6°C Mar11 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Surprise Bay Climatology
Surprise Bay Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.1 21.3 20.3 17.8 15.6 14.0 13.3 13.7 14.7 16.0 17.6 19.1 17.0 Mean Min (°C) 12.6 13.1 12.3 10.6 9.4 8.2 7.7 7.8 8.4 8.9 10.2 11.1 10.0 Mean Rain (mm) 39.0 30.7 49.9 51.1 89.6 98.9 117.4 113.6 83.2 72.7 52.7 45.9 851.0 Mean Rain Days 8.5 7.2 12.0 16.6 19.1 19.9 22.1 22.9 18.9 16.1 12.3 11.2 182.1