Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory
This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.
Flood Watch For Parts Of The Top End And Barkly Of Nt
Issued at 01:10 PM CST on Friday 15 March 2024
Flood Watch Number: 10
FLOOD IMPACTS CONTINUING IN NORTH WESTERN NT AND INCREASING FLOOD RISK FOR ARNHEM AND CARPENTARIA COASTAL RIVERS AND BARKLY
Recent heavy rainfall across the flood watch area has caused significant river level rises along local creeks and rivers. Flooding impacts are likely in the Flood Watch area for the next few days.
Catchments in the Flood Watch area are relatively wet following recent rainfall.
Rainfall totals up to 160 mm were recorded across the Flood Watch area in the 24 hours to 9 am Friday, following several days of heavy falls.
Showers and thunderstorms with isolated heavy falls are forecast over the next few days. Widespread daily totals of 50-100 mm, with isolated totals up to 200 mm are possible during the next few days across the Flood Watch area.
Rainfall over the last few days and areas of flooding may have adversely affected many roads, and possibly primary and secondary highways. Some communities and homesteads may become isolated. Check road conditions before travelling.
The situation is being closely monitored.
Catchments likely to be affected include:
Victoria River below Kalkarindji
Mary River
Upper Adelaide River
Adelaide River below Adelaide River Town
Lower Daly River
Daly River above Douglas River
Katherine River
South Alligator River
Wildman River
Buckingham River
Goyder River
Blyth River
Liverpool River
Goomadeer River
East Alligator River
Koolatong River
Walker River
Groote Eylandt
Roper River
Towns River
Limmen Bight River
Rosie River
McArthur River
Robinson River
Calvert River
Settlement Creek
Nicholson River
Barkly
East Kimberley Rivers
Fitzmaurice River
Tiwi Islands
Finniss River
Moyle River
Waterhouse River
See www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings to view all of the Bureau's current warning products.
More information on the Flood Watch Service and maps of Flood Watch areas are available at www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml .
Flood Safety Advice:
For emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones call 132 500.
Emergency information is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au .
The latest road conditions are available at www.roadreport.nt.gov.au .
The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
* Prepare for flooding and move away while safe to do so.
* Don't drive into floodwaters.}
Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 01:30 pm CST on Saturday 16 March 2024.
Forecast
Pularumpi (11.4052°S, 130.4175°E, 2m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY25° 31° Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 20-40mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:31am CST 6:52am CST 7:02pm CST 7:23pm CST NOW28.8° Feels Like: 32.5° Relative Humidity: 81% Dew: 25.2° Wind: W 15km/h Gust: 19km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.8mm Pressure: 1008.4hPa -
Today Weather
PularumpiNow29.4°cFeels Like:29.3°Wind:W 37km/hGusts:44km/hHumidity:82%25°Min31°MaxToday in PularumpiCloudy. High chance of sowers tending to rain at times.. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h.Tomorrow25°Min31°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
- Flood Watch For Parts Of The Top End And Barkly Of Nt
- Gale Warning for Arafura, Gove Peninsula and Roper Groote coasts. Cancellation for North Tiwi Coast
- Moderate Flood Warning For The Daly River
- Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds And Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Arnhem and Carpentaria districts
- Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds And Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Arnhem and Carpentaria districts
- Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Surf) for parts of Arnhem district
- Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Surf) for parts of Arnhem district
- Tropical Cyclone Watch for Alyangula (Groote Eylandt) in NT to the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola but not including Ngukurr
- Minor Flood Warning For The Katherine River
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of sowers tending to rain at times.. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h.
Forecast for Pularumpi (11.4052°S, 130.4175°E, 2m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 25° 25° 26° 26° 26° 26° 26° Maximum 31° 31° 33° 33° 33° 32° 31° Chance of rain 90% 70% 80% 50% 60% 90% 90% Likely amount 20-40mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme High High High Fire Danger Rating No Rating No Rating No Rating No Rating - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 15
(km/h)18
(km/h)12
(km/h)16
(km/h)16
(km/h)18
(km/h)15
(km/h)20
(km/h)17
(km/h)20
(km/h)17
(km/h)20
(km/h)14
(km/h)17
(km/h)Wind direction W W W W W W W W W W W WNW WNW NW Relative humidity 95% 90% 92% 79% 87% 79% 87% 74% 83% 73% 84% 74% 88% 75% Dew point 28°C 28°C 27°C 27°C 27°C 28°C 27°C 27°C 26°C 27°C 26°C 27°C 26°C 26°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Pularumpi Rain Forecast
Pularumpi 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
16
17
18
19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar15Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-14, 2024-03-19 and 2024-03-25. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-14, 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-24. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-16 and 2024-03-21.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Pularumpi Rain Forecast
Pularumpi 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025917998888977105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Pularumpi Rain Forecast
Pularumpi 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
16
17
18
19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar15Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-14, 2024-03-19 and 2024-03-25. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-14, 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-24. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-16 and 2024-03-21.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Pularumpi Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Mar 1125.9 °C 31.1 °C 1.8 mmTuesday
Mar 1224.5 °C 29.9 °C 48.2 mmWednesday
Mar 1324.9 °C 30.8 °C 23.4 mmThursday
Mar 1424.6 °C 27.2 °C 59.2 mmFriday
Mar 1525.1 °C 30.3 °C 20.8 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Pularumpi minimum temp history (11.4052°S, 130.4175°E, 2m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.7° 09/03/2024 Coldest this month 23.2° 08/03/2024 Hottest on record 36.7 01/03/2016 Coldest on record 18.0 29/03/1998 Hottest this year 36.4° 02/01/2024 Coldest this year 22.6° 27/02/2024 Long term average 32.1° Long term average 24.1° Average this month 32.1° Average this month 25.4° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 34.0° 2016 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 22.5° 1998 Pularumpi rainfall history (11.4052°S, 130.4175°E, 2m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 59.2mm 14/03/2024 Total This Month 183.0mm
12.0 daysLong Term Average 346.9mm 21.3 days Wettest March on record 705.8mm 1984 Driest on record 99.0mm 2002 -
Year to Date
Pularumpi Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 1150.5mm 63.5 day(s) Total For 2024 738.2mm 56.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 1123.8mm 57.0 day(s) Wettest Day 59.2mm Mar14 Lowest Temperature 22.6°C Feb27 Highest Temperature 36.4°C Jan 2 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Pularumpi Climatology
Pularumpi Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 32.0 31.7 32.1 32.8 32.5 31.3 31.2 32.2 33.5 33.8 33.8 32.9 32.5 Mean Min (°C) 24.7 24.5 24.1 23.2 21.3 19.1 18.5 19.1 21.4 23.1 24.2 24.7 22.3 Mean Rain (mm) 421.2 382.4 346.9 163.0 20.9 4.4 2.2 6.3 28.4 88.8 195.0 342.5 1974.3 Mean Rain Days 21.6 20.6 21.3 12.6 3.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 3.5 9.0 14.7 18.6 128.5