Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Coastal Central West, Interior, East Pilbara Coast, East Pilbara Inland and Lower West Coast fire weather districts
Issued at 01:23 AM WST on Thursday 12 December 2019
Weather Situation
Very hot and dry with fresh and gusty east to southeasterly winds.
For the rest of Thursday 12 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Coastal Central West, Interior, East Pilbara Coast, East Pilbara Inland and Lower West Coast
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.dfes.wa.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Winchester (29.7714°S, 115.9263°E, 254m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY26° 39° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:42am WST 5:10am WST 7:11pm WST 7:38pm WST NOW26.3° Feels Like: 21.0° Relative Humidity: 34% Dew: 9.2° Wind: E 26km/h Gust: 32km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
WinchesterNow26.3°cFeels Like:21.0°Wind:E 26km/hGusts:32km/hHumidity:34%26°Min39°MaxToday in WinchesterVery hot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the north in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening with gusty winds. Winds E/NE 25 to 35 km/h becoming light in the evening then becoming E 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching around 40.Tomorrow26°Min39°MaxVery hot and sunny. Winds NE 20 to 30 km/h turning E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then tending SE/SW in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching the low 40s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Very hot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the north in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening with gusty winds. Winds E/NE 25 to 35 km/h becoming light in the evening then becoming E 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching around 40.
Forecast for Winchester (29.7714°S, 115.9263°E, 254m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 26° 26° 24° 25° 21° 18° 19° Maximum 39° 39° 41° 40° 37° 37° 37° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 50% 20% 5% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 29
(km/h)19
(km/h)28
(km/h)11
(km/h)21
(km/h)8
(km/h)12
(km/h)24
(km/h)10
(km/h)23
(km/h)7
(km/h)18
(km/h)8
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction ENE E ENE E NE ENE N W W W WSW W SSE W Relative humidity 22% 12% 15% 8% 13% 9% 14% 12% 39% 19% 42% 19% 39% 15% Dew point 8°C 5°C 3°C -0°C 3°C 2°C 5°C 5°C 14°C 9°C 13°C 10°C 12°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Winchester Rain Forecast
Winchester 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
LOW27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Winchester Rain Forecast
Winchester 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020677866546848105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Winchester Rain Forecast
Winchester 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
LOW27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Winchester Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 07- - 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 08- 40.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0913.8 °C 34.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1018.0 °C 40.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1123.5 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Winchester minimum temp history (29.7714°S, 115.9263°E, 254m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 42.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 13.8° 09/12/2019 Hottest on record 45.3 16/12/2013 Coldest on record 6.7 01/12/1952 Hottest this year 43.6° 20/01/2019 Coldest this year 3.6° 16/08/2019 Long term average 33.5° Long term average 16.1° Average this month 38.7° Average this month 20.0° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 37.3° 1972 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 12.9° 1944 Winchester rainfall history (29.7714°S, 115.9263°E, 254m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 8.5mm 1.8 days Wettest December on record 56.5mm 1972 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for WA
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Year to Date
Winchester Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 366.1mm 74.0 day(s) Total For 2019 97.3mm 25.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 274.5mm 61.0 day(s) Wettest Day 36.0mm Jul 5 Lowest Temperature 3.6°C Aug16 Highest Temperature 43.6°C Jan20 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Winchester Climatology
Winchester Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 36.1 35.6 32.7 27.6 22.6 19.0 17.9 19.2 22.1 26.1 30.1 33.5 26.9 Mean Min (°C) 18.5 19.2 17.3 14.1 10.8 8.7 7.3 7.2 8.2 10.4 13.4 16.1 12.6 Mean Rain (mm) 10.8 15.1 19.1 23.5 48.3 71.2 67.5 50.6 25.6 15.9 10.0 8.5 360.4 Mean Rain Days 1.9 2.1 2.6 4.5 8.5 12.1 13.4 11.3 8.0 5.0 2.8 1.8 62.2