Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Coastal Central West, Interior, East Pilbara Coast, East Pilbara Inland and Lower West Coast fire weather districts
Issued at 01:23 AM WST on Thursday 12 December 2019
Weather Situation
Very hot and dry with fresh and gusty east to southeasterly winds.
For the rest of Thursday 12 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Coastal Central West, Interior, East Pilbara Coast, East Pilbara Inland and Lower West Coast
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.dfes.wa.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Wilbinga (31.434°S, 115.664°E, 53m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY23° 41° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:37am WST 5:05am WST 7:15pm WST 7:43pm WST NOW24.3° Feels Like: 19.3° Relative Humidity: 37% Dew: 8.7° Wind: ESE 24km/h Gust: 28km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1015.8hPa -
Today Weather
WilbingaNow24.0°cFeels Like:17.8°Wind:ENE 30km/hGusts:39km/hHumidity:37%23°Min41°MaxToday in WilbingaVery hot and sunny. Winds E 25 to 35 km/h becoming light in the early afternoon then becoming E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching around 40.Tomorrow24°Min42°MaxVery hot and sunny. Winds NE 15 to 25 km/h shifting SW in the early afternoon then tending SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching around 40. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Very hot and sunny. Winds E 25 to 35 km/h becoming light in the early afternoon then becoming E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 23 with daytime temperatures reaching around 40.
Forecast for Wilbinga (31.434°S, 115.664°E, 53m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 23° 24° 21° 21° 17° 16° 15° Maximum 41° 42° 43° 42° 37° 36° 35° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 20% 5% 5% 20% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 26
(km/h)14
(km/h)22
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)19
(km/h)10
(km/h)24
(km/h)8
(km/h)21
(km/h)9
(km/h)21
(km/h)8
(km/h)20
(km/h)Wind direction ENE ESE ENE S NE SW N WSW SW WSW WSW WSW S WSW Relative humidity 20% 12% 14% 10% 12% 11% 20% 20% 42% 31% 53% 40% 44% 36% Dew point 6°C 7°C 3°C 5°C 2°C 5°C 11°C 11°C 16°C 16°C 18°C 20°C 15°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Wilbinga Rain Forecast
Wilbinga 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
14
15
16
17
LOW18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
LOW26
27
28
29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
2
MEDIUM3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
LOW6
7
8
9
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Wilbinga Rain Forecast
Wilbinga 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020685756445829105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Wilbinga Rain Forecast
Wilbinga 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
14
15
16
17
LOW18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
LOW26
27
28
29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
2
MEDIUM3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
LOW6
7
8
9
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Wilbinga Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 0715.6 °C 28.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0811.0 °C 26.2 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 099.8 °C 32.4 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1011.2 °C 37.1 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1118.6 °C 39 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Wilbinga minimum temp history (31.434°S, 115.664°E, 53m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 42.2° 03/12/2019 Coldest this month 9.8° 09/12/2019 Hottest on record 45.3 26/12/2007 Coldest on record 4.4 07/12/2007 Hottest this year 44.1° 20/01/2019 Coldest this year -2.2° 18/05/2019 Long term average 30.5° Long term average 14.3° Average this month 35.8° Average this month 16.2° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.7° 2009 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 10.7° 2005 Wilbinga rainfall history (31.434°S, 115.664°E, 53m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 10.0mm 3.3 days Wettest December on record 57.6mm 2009 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for WA
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Year to Date
Wilbinga Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 669.0mm 101.6 day(s) Total For 2019 525.8mm 83.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 500.6mm 98.0 day(s) Wettest Day 53.6mm Jul 5 Lowest Temperature -2.2°C May18 Highest Temperature 44.1°C Jan20 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Wilbinga Climatology
Wilbinga Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 33.2 33.2 30.7 26.7 22.7 19.6 18.2 19.1 20.6 24.4 28.0 30.5 25.5 Mean Min (°C) 16.6 17.1 15.3 12.1 9.1 7.3 6.1 6.6 7.4 9.2 12.0 14.3 11.0 Mean Rain (mm) 18.4 16.9 21.8 30.6 76.8 114.2 128.2 110.9 84.8 36.0 20.4 10.0 671.7 Mean Rain Days 2.3 2.0 4.5 6.8 10.8 13.3 16.3 14.8 13.9 8.4 5.2 3.3 97.4