Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Damaging Winds, Large Hailstones And Heavy Rainfall
for South West, Great Southern and parts of Goldfields, Lower West, South Coastal, South East Coastal and Central Wheat Belt districts.
Issued at 7:02 am Thursday, 4 March 2021.
Severe thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall, with a chance of damaging winds and large hailstones.
Weather Situation
At 6:40 am WST radar and satellite imagery showed areas of active thunderstorms across the South West Capes and in the western Great Southern district, moving south.
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL for the following areas:
Goldfields, Lower West, South West, South Coastal, South East Coastal, Great Southern and Central Wheat Belt
Throughout the warning area severe thunderstorms are likely to produce HEAVY RAINFALL that may lead to DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING, whilst thunderstorms over central and eastern parts of the warning area may also produce DAMAGING WINDS.
Thunderstorms are likely to redevelop through the remainder of the Great Southern and southern parts of the Central Wheat Belt later this morning or during Thursday afternoon and move south into eastern parts of the South Coastal district and the South East Coastal district, with a risk of DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES from these thunderstorms.
Locations which may be affected include Busselton, Esperance, Kalgoorlie, Katanning, Manjimup, Margaret River, Merredin, Narrogin, Norseman and Northam.
Storms may cause DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY.
Since 9:00 am Wednesday morning the following rainfall totals have been recorded:
- Eneabba: 112mm
- Canterbury: 85.6mm
- Toodyay East: 67.2mm
- Wilyabrup reported 37.4mm in the hour to 6:00am WST Thursday.
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* If outside find safe shelter away from trees, power lines, storm water drains and streams.
* Close your curtains and blinds, and stay inside away from windows.
* Unplug electrical appliances and do not use land line telephones if there is lightning.
* If there is flooding, create your own sandbags by using pillow cases filled with sand and place them around doorways to protect your home.
* If boating, swimming or surfing leave the water.
* Do not drive into water of unknown depth and current.
* Slow down and turn your headlights on.
* Be alert and watch for hazards on the road such as fallen power lines and loose debris.
* If it is raining heavily and you cannot see, pull over and park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears.
The next warning is due to be issued by 10:05 am.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Department of Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Whitby (32.2957°S, 116.0105°E, 69m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY21° 23° Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:43am WST 6:08am WST 6:49pm WST 7:14pm WST NOW22.6° Feels Like: 23.6° Relative Humidity: 91% Dew: 21.1° Wind: N 17km/h Gust: 18km/h Rainfall since 9am: 7.2mm Pressure: 1007.9hPa -
Today Weather
WhitbyNow22.7°cFeels Like:23.5°Wind:N 17km/hGusts:20km/hHumidity:88%21°Min23°MaxToday in WhitbyHumid and partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm contracting E during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to heavy falls possible this morning, most likely in the E. Winds NW 15 to 20 km/h turning W in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.Tomorrow20°Min24°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the S, medium chance elsewhere. Light winds becoming W 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to around 18 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Humid and partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm contracting E during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to heavy falls possible this morning, most likely in the E. Winds NW 15 to 20 km/h turning W in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Forecast for Whitby (32.2957°S, 116.0105°E, 69m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 21° 20° 19° 21° 20° 21° 23° Maximum 23° 24° 24° 27° 28° 30° 31° Chance of rain 80% 50% 20% 30% 5% 20% 20% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 17
(km/h)19
(km/h)14
(km/h)16
(km/h)5
(km/h)17
(km/h)15
(km/h)14
(km/h)21
(km/h)13
(km/h)24
(km/h)14
(km/h)19
(km/h)13
(km/h)Wind direction NNW NW WNW W S WSW ESE SSW E SE E ESE E SE Relative humidity 87% 78% 84% 76% 81% 73% 72% 60% 69% 54% 64% 47% 54% 43% Dew point 20°C 20°C 19°C 19°C 19°C 19°C 18°C 19°C 16°C 18°C 16°C 17°C 15°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Whitby Rain Forecast
Whitby 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
HIGH6
LOW7
LOW8
9
LOW10
11
12
LOW13
HIGH14
15
16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
LOW22
LOW23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMApr 1
HIGHCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Whitby Rain Forecast
Whitby 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2021202276657682788105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 5
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Whitby Rain Forecast
Whitby 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
HIGH6
LOW7
LOW8
9
LOW10
11
12
LOW13
HIGH14
15
16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
LOW22
LOW23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMApr 1
HIGHCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Whitby Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Feb 2716.7 °C 31.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Feb 2818.7 °C 31.2 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 0116.7 °C 23.2 °C 10.8 mmTuesday
Mar 0216.8 °C 30.5 °C 13.8 mmWednesday
Mar 0318.5 °C 27.7 °C 6.6 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Whitby minimum temp history (32.2957°S, 116.0105°E, 69m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 30.5° 02/03/2021 Coldest this month 16.7° 01/03/2021 Hottest on record 43.0 10/03/2003 Coldest on record 1.6 28/03/2007 Hottest this year 41.3° 08/01/2021 Coldest this year 9.3° 19/02/2021 Long term average 29.6° Long term average 15.6° Average this month 25.5° Average this month 17.3° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.5° 2011 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 13.8° 2001 Whitby rainfall history (32.2957°S, 116.0105°E, 69m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 13.8mm 02/03/2021 Total This Month 31.2mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 16.7mm 3.8 days Wettest March on record 83.6mm 1992 Driest on record 0.0mm 2011 -
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Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
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Year to Date
Whitby Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 50.0mm 8.6 day(s) Total For 2021 78.6mm 8.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 10.8mm 6.0 day(s) Wettest Day 22.8mm Feb 7 Lowest Temperature 9.3°C Feb19 Highest Temperature 41.3°C Jan 8 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Whitby Climatology
Whitby Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.4 31.6 29.6 25.8 22.0 19.2 18.0 18.7 20.2 23.0 26.4 29.3 24.5 Mean Min (°C) 16.8 17.1 15.6 12.5 9.3 7.6 7.0 7.2 8.2 9.9 12.7 14.8 11.5 Mean Rain (mm) 15.8 17.5 16.7 41.8 105.8 152.8 171.7 128.5 85.2 46.0 28.6 10.4 812.6 Mean Rain Days 2.5 2.3 3.8 7.3 12.3 15.5 17.7 15.6 13.7 8.9 6.1 3.3 108.9