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Forecast

Welbungin (30.8262°S, 117.9891°E, 341m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 12°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:31am WST 6:57am WST 5:34pm WST 5:59pm WST
    NOW
    6.5° Feels Like: 3.5°
    Relative Humidity: 100%
    Dew: 6.5°
    Wind: NW 11km/h
    Gust: 13km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 6.4mm
    Pressure: 1012.5hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Welbungin
    Now
    5.6°c
    Feels Like:
    1.2°
    Wind:
    W 17km/h
    Gusts:
    19km/h
    Humidity:
    95%
    Mostly sunny
     
    Min
    12°
    Max
    Today in Welbungin
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the far SW, medium chance elsewhere. Possible small hail in the S in the morning and early afternoon. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h turning NW 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures around 14.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    12°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Squally winds in the far SW in the morning and early afternoon. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h turning SW 35 to 50 km/h in the late morning then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 15.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the far SW, medium chance elsewhere. Possible small hail in the S in the morning and early afternoon. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h turning NW 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures around 14.

    Forecast for Welbungin (30.8262°S, 117.9891°E, 341m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Mostly sunny Showers Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Sunny
    Minimum
    Maximum 12° 12° 13° 14° 15° 17° 20°
    Chance of rain 50% 60% 5% 5% 5% 5% 50%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 16
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW WSW WNW WSW SSW SSW N S E SE ENE ENE NE N
    Relative humidity 84% 61% 86% 65% 81% 55% 79% 53% 77% 50% 72% 40% 55% 35%
    Dew point 6°C 5°C 9°C 6°C 5°C 4°C 6°C 5°C 5°C 5°C 5°C 4°C 2°C 4°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Welbungin Rain Forecast


    Welbungin 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    MEDIUM
    Aug 1
    HIGH
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    HIGH
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Welbungin Rain Forecast


    Welbungin 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2021
    2022
    7
    6
    5
    6
    8
    8
    8
    6
    6
    5
    1
    1
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 13

    ENSO status: Neutral, however two models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again from September. IOD status: Neutral, although it was negative for six weeks between mid-May and late-June SAM status: Negative. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, prompting the US Climate Prediction Centre to issue a La Niña Watch this week. Two models forecast temperatures reaching the La Niña threshold during September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although we saw six consecutive weeks below the negative IOD threshold between mid-May and late-June. The IOD index needs to stay below -0.4C for eight consecutive weeks to be officially declared as a negative IOD event. The IOD ducked back into neutral territory thanks to recent warming in the western Indian Ocean. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly values may enhance rainfallacross central and southern Australia. Three of the five models are forecasting the negative IOD to develop in winter, with another one indicating development in early spring. Most of the models suggest that the negative IOD will continue through until mid spring. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and southwestern TAS. The weekly negative IOD values may be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from southwestern TAS and WA. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Welbungin Rain Forecast


    Welbungin 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    MEDIUM
    Aug 1
    HIGH
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    HIGH
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Welbungin Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Jul 25
    8.0 °C 17.5 °C
    0.2 mm
    Monday
    Jul 26
    7.3 °C 17.0 °C
    0.1 mm
    Tuesday
    Jul 27
    7.6 °C 15.0 °C
    2.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 28
    7.9 °C 16.0 °C
    1.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 29
    8.5 °C -
    2.3 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Welbungin minimum temp history (30.8262°S, 117.9891°E, 341m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 18.5° 03/07/2021 Coldest this month 2.4° 03/07/2021
    Hottest on record 25.6 31/07/1969 Coldest on record -4.3 15/07/1997
    Hottest this year 39.5° 23/01/2021 Coldest this year 0.5° 25/06/2021
    Long term average 16.5° Long term average 6.2°
    Average this month 16.1° Average this month 7.9°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.5° 1977 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 4.1° 1962
    Welbungin rainfall history (30.8262°S, 117.9891°E, 341m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 9.4mm 10/07/2021 Total This Month 58.8mm
    26.0 days
    Long Term Average 44.3mm 13.2 days Wettest July on record 110.9mm 1958
    Driest on record 7.5mm 1937
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Welbungin Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 207.9mm 48.0 day(s)
    Total For 2021 322.2mm 71.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 174.8mm 58.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 35.8mm Mar 3
    Lowest Temperature 0.5°C Jun25
    Highest Temperature 39.5°C Jan23
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Welbungin Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 34.5 33.5 30.7 26.0 21.1 17.6 16.5 17.7 21.0 25.5 29.3 32.6 25.4
    Mean Min (°C) 18.2 18.3 16.4 13.1 9.3 7.3 6.2 6.1 7.3 10.1 13.5 16.2 11.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 16.2 19.5 24.1 21.0 35.7 47.1 44.3 37.0 21.3 14.6 14.0 12.7 307.5
    Mean Rain Days 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.9 8.1 12.3 13.2 11.5 7.6 5.3 3.5 2.5 78.3