Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Marine Wind Warning Summary for Western Australia
Issued at 04:00 AM WST on Friday 06 December 2019
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 07 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Friday 06 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Albany Coast and Esperance Coast
Wind Warnings for Saturday 07 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Perth Local Waters, Perth Coast, Bunbury Geographe Coast, Leeuwin Coast, Albany Coast, Esperance Coast and Eucla Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:00 pm WST Friday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Wannanup (32.5981°S, 115.6439°E, 13m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY24° 39° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:34am WST 5:02am WST 7:14pm WST 7:42pm WST NOW30.0° Feels Like: 27.9° Relative Humidity: 32% Dew: 11.5° Wind: ENE 13km/h Gust: 20km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1009.1hPa -
Today Weather
WannanupNow28.9°cFeels Like:26.0°Wind:ENE 20km/hGusts:30km/hHumidity:39%24°Min39°MaxToday in WannanupVery hot. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower inland, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm inland during this afternoon and early evening, with gusty winds this afternoon. Winds E/NE 30 to 40 km/h shifting W 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low 40s.Tomorrow19°Min25°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h turning W/SW 25 to 35 km/h in the late morning and early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 24 to 29. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Very hot. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower inland, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm inland during this afternoon and early evening, with gusty winds this afternoon. Winds E/NE 30 to 40 km/h shifting W 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low 40s.
Forecast for Wannanup (32.5981°S, 115.6439°E, 13m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 24° 19° 17° 15° 18° 20° 22° Maximum 39° 25° 25° 27° 31° 34° 35° Chance of rain 10% 90% 20% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 22
(km/h)15
(km/h)23
(km/h)28
(km/h)14
(km/h)23
(km/h)8
(km/h)25
(km/h)9
(km/h)24
(km/h)15
(km/h)14
(km/h)18
(km/h)11
(km/h)Wind direction ENE NW NW W SSW SW SSE SW ESE SW ESE S E SSW Relative humidity 33% 41% 68% 62% 56% 48% 45% 41% 33% 36% 34% 26% 30% 24% Dew point 16°C 18°C 18°C 17°C 13°C 14°C 10°C 13°C 9°C 14°C 10°C 12°C 10°C 12°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Wannanup Rain Forecast
Wannanup 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
HIGH8
9
10
11
12
13
14
LOW15
16
17
LOW18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
LOWJan 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Wannanup Rain Forecast
Wannanup 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020685756445829105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Wannanup Rain Forecast
Wannanup 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
HIGH8
9
10
11
12
13
14
LOW15
16
17
LOW18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
24
25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
LOWJan 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Wannanup Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Dec 0113.3 °C 31.6 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0219.6 °C 33.8 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 0322.2 °C 35.6 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0423.0 °C 33.1 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0521.7 °C 36 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Wannanup minimum temp history (32.5981°S, 115.6439°E, 13m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 35.6° 03/12/2019 Coldest this month 13.3° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 40.1 25/12/2010 Coldest on record 9.7 02/12/2002 Hottest this year 37.7° 15/11/2019 Coldest this year 5.4° 05/09/2019 Long term average 27.0° Long term average 17.1° Average this month 33.5° Average this month 19.5° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.0° 2012 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 15.0° 2001 Wannanup rainfall history (32.5981°S, 115.6439°E, 13m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 16.4mm 3.9 days Wettest December on record 104.4mm 2012 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for WA
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Year to Date
Wannanup Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 636.7mm 112.7 day(s) Total For 2019 516.6mm 91.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 653.6mm 110.0 day(s) Wettest Day 53.0mm Jul 5 Lowest Temperature 5.4°C Sep 5 Highest Temperature 37.7°C Nov15 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Wannanup Climatology
Wannanup Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 29.5 29.8 27.8 24.1 21.1 18.6 17.4 18.1 19.0 21.9 24.8 27.0 23.3 Mean Min (°C) 19.0 19.4 18.1 15.8 13.5 11.5 10.6 11.0 11.7 13.5 15.6 17.1 14.8 Mean Rain (mm) 15.5 13.0 17.3 40.2 87.3 119.2 113.3 91.3 67.8 30.7 24.7 16.4 626.5 Mean Rain Days 3.1 2.4 4.0 8.3 12.3 14.9 17.9 16.3 15.1 8.6 5.9 3.9 102.3