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Forecast

Upper Warren (34.3354°S, 116.2531°E, 253m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Mostly sunny 16° 35°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:29am WST 5:55am WST 7:03pm WST 7:29pm WST
    NOW
    29.0° Feels Like: 25.6°
    Relative Humidity: 29%
    Dew: 9.2°
    Wind: ESE 17km/h
    Gust: 24km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1016.5hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Upper Warren
    Now
    26.6°c
    Feels Like:
    24.8°
    Wind:
    SSE 18km/h
    Gusts:
    28km/h
    Humidity:
    51%
    Mostly sunny
     
    16°
    Min
    35°
    Max
    Today in Upper Warren
    Mostly sunny. Winds E/NE 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day then becoming E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    16°
    Min
    35°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E 15 to 20 km/h tending NE early in the morning then becoming light in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 20 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Upper Warren

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Winds E/NE 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day then becoming E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s.

    Forecast for Upper Warren (34.3354°S, 116.2531°E, 253m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Mostly sunny Late shower Cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 16° 20° 17° 16° 16° 15° 16°
    Maximum 35° 31° 25° 26° 28° 30° 27°
    Chance of rain 5% 60% 50% 50% 30% 70% 60%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High - - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 19
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    -
    (km/h)
    -
    (km/h)
    Wind direction ENE NNE NE S SE SSE ESE SE ESE SE E ESE - -
    Relative humidity 49% 24% 43% 49% 79% 56% 77% 56% 75% 48% 66% 43% n/a n/a
    Dew point 13°C 12°C 14°C 17°C 17°C 16°C 15°C 17°C 15°C 16°C 14°C 16°C n/a n/a
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Upper Warren Rain Forecast


    Upper Warren 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    HIGH
    27
    HIGH
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    Mar 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    HIGH
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Feb20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 March to 12 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 21 March to 25 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 February to 4 March, 4 March to 8 March, and 10 March to 14 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 March to 9 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 21 March to 25 March.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Upper Warren Rain Forecast


    Upper Warren 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    2020
    2021
    2
    5
    6
    5
    5
    6
    6
    7
    3
    7
    7
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Feb 12

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout January with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 as per December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 1.3 in January. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, cooling even further by mid 2020. Six out of eight international models continue to maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of the year, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, which is what you will expect for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values until the austral winter, with indications we could see another positive event late winter/spring. However, the skill of the models is low at this time of the year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours average-to-below average rainfall for parts of inland NSW and Qld for the end of summer and autumn. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) had its latest onset on record in early February at Darwin (by its technical definition) with the current prognosis suggesting another below average wet season for northern Australia. The northern half of the country however, could see a wet end to the wet season compared to the season thus far. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Upper Warren Rain Forecast


    Upper Warren 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    HIGH
    27
    HIGH
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    Mar 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    HIGH
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Feb20

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 March to 12 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 21 March to 25 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 February to 4 March, 4 March to 8 March, and 10 March to 14 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 March to 9 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 21 March to 25 March.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Upper Warren Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Feb 16
    12.9 °C 23.3 °C
    0.2 mm
    Monday
    Feb 17
    11.7 °C 25.1 °C
    -
    Tuesday
    Feb 18
    10.2 °C 28.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Feb 19
    14.0 °C 32.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Feb 20
    15.3 °C 32 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Upper Warren minimum temp history (34.3354°S, 116.2531°E, 253m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 39.3° 05/02/2020 Coldest this month 9.7° 09/02/2020
    Hottest on record 41.6 23/02/1991 Coldest on record 5.6 20/02/1957
    Hottest this year 39.3° 05/02/2020 Coldest this year 5.9° 04/01/2020
    Long term average 27.4° Long term average 13.7°
    Average this month 30.5° Average this month 14.0°
    Hottest February On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.7° 1985 Coldest February on record Avg. min. temp. 12.1° 1987
    Upper Warren rainfall history (34.3354°S, 116.2531°E, 253m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 17.4mm 13/02/2020 Total This Month 19.0mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 18.7mm 5.9 days Wettest February on record 117.4mm 1955
    Driest on record 0.0mm 1928
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for WA

  16. Year to Date

    Upper Warren Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Feb 38.5mm 11.8 day(s)
    Total For 2020 42.2mm 12.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 17.0mm 9.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 17.4mm Feb13
    Lowest Temperature 5.9°C Jan 4
    Highest Temperature 39.3°C Feb 5
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Upper Warren Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 27.5 27.4 25.1 21.3 17.9 15.5 14.5 15.2 16.6 19.1 22.2 25.2 20.6
    Mean Min (°C) 13.4 13.7 12.8 11.1 9.2 7.6 6.6 6.7 7.5 8.6 10.4 11.9 9.9
    Mean Rain (mm) 19.8 18.7 29.6 59.2 129.8 161.5 174.0 145.3 108.7 74.7 46.1 25.3 991.5
    Mean Rain Days 5.9 5.9 7.6 11.6 17.5 20.0 22.2 20.9 17.6 15.0 10.4 7.3 160.0