Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Ravensthorpe Shire, East Pilbara Coast, West Pilbara Coast, Exmouth Gulf Coast, Gascoyne Inland, Goldfields, Eucla, South Interior, Esperance Shire Inland, Roe, Lakes, Ninghan and Jilbadgie fire weather districts
Issued at 01:27 AM WST on Saturday 07 December 2019
Weather Situation
Fresh and gusty westerly winds over western parts of the State as a cold front moves over the southwest. Very hot and dry conditions remain over inland parts of the State with fresh west to northwesterly winds through the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Goldfields and Interior.
For the rest of Saturday 07 December:
Extreme Fire Danger for the following areas:
Eucla and South Interior
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Ravensthorpe Shire, East Pilbara Coast, West Pilbara Coast, Exmouth Gulf Coast, Gascoyne Inland, Goldfields, Esperance Shire Inland, Roe, Lakes, Ninghan and Jilbadgie
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.dfes.wa.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Tom Price (22.6968°S, 117.7852°E, 717m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY22° 39° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:51am WST 5:16am WST 6:44pm WST 7:09pm WST NOW23.3° Feels Like: 19.8° Relative Humidity: 24% Dew: 1.6° Wind: W 9km/h Gust: 11km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.1hPa -
Today Weather
Tom PriceNow26.5°cFeels Like:22.6°Wind:WNW 11km/hGusts:13km/hHumidity:20%22°Min39°MaxToday in Tom PriceSunny. Winds NW/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending SE/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending NW/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to 22 to 27 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 40s.Tomorrow22°Min37°MaxVery hot and sunny. Winds NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending S/SE 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then tending S/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to 22 to 28 with daytime temperatures reaching 39 to 45. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny. Winds NW/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending SE/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending NW/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to 22 to 27 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 40s.
Forecast for Tom Price (22.6968°S, 117.7852°E, 717m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 22° 22° 22° 23° 24° 25° 26° Maximum 39° 37° 40° 41° 39° 37° 39° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 50% 60% 40% 50% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 12
(km/h)19
(km/h)25
(km/h)17
(km/h)22
(km/h)9
(km/h)16
(km/h)12
(km/h)10
(km/h)10
(km/h)24
(km/h)15
(km/h)23
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction SSW W S SW SE NNW ENE N NE N E E ESE ESE Relative humidity 16% 9% 22% 12% 16% 9% 12% 10% 16% 13% 23% 16% 20% 13% Dew point 4°C 1°C 6°C 4°C 4°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 6°C 6°C 9°C 8°C 7°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Tom Price Rain Forecast
Tom Price 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
8
9
10
LOW11
LOW12
13
14
LOW15
LOW16
17
LOW18
19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
LOW4
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Tom Price Rain Forecast
Tom Price 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020767786898987105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Tom Price Rain Forecast
Tom Price 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
8
9
10
LOW11
LOW12
13
14
LOW15
LOW16
17
LOW18
19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
LOW4
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Tom Price Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0223.6 °C 38.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 0320.2 °C - 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 04- - -Thursday
Dec 05- 43.7 °C -Friday
Dec 0628.4 °C 44 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Tom Price minimum temp history (22.6968°S, 117.7852°E, 717m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 44.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 20.2° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 47.8 30/12/1997 Coldest on record 16.4 02/12/2001 Hottest this year 46.0° 01/01/2019 Coldest this year 3.3° 12/06/2019 Long term average 40.4° Long term average 24.5° Average this month 40.3° Average this month 23.3° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 42.7° 1997 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 22.4° 2001 Tom Price rainfall history (22.6968°S, 117.7852°E, 717m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 28.1mm 4.4 days Wettest December on record 153.0mm 1997 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for WA
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Year to Date
Tom Price Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 319.1mm 44.4 day(s) Total For 2019 108.2mm 23.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 277.8mm 39.0 day(s) Wettest Day 28.0mm Jan28 Lowest Temperature 3.3°C Jun12 Highest Temperature 46.0°C Jan 1 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Tom Price Climatology
Tom Price Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 40.6 38.7 36.8 33.5 29.0 25.1 24.7 27.6 31.4 35.9 38.3 40.4 33.5 Mean Min (°C) 25.9 25.0 23.3 19.6 14.7 11.2 9.9 10.9 13.5 18.3 21.5 24.5 18.1 Mean Rain (mm) 54.6 76.3 51.2 25.7 18.3 23.6 14.9 10.6 3.2 4.1 8.5 28.1 318.8 Mean Rain Days 7.1 7.8 6.1 4.0 2.8 3.6 2.6 1.7 0.9 1.2 2.2 4.4 42.7