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Forecast

Nepean (30.9677°S, 120.8644°E, 464m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible thunderstorm 21° 34°
    possible thunderstorm
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:16am WST 5:41am WST 6:33pm WST 6:58pm WST
    NOW
    20.3° Feels Like: 20.7°
    Relative Humidity: 99%
    Dew: 20.1°
    Wind: ESE 17km/h
    Gust: 19km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 14.8mm
    Pressure: 1018.2hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Nepean
    Now
    20.2°c
    Feels Like:
    16.1°
    Wind:
    ENE 33km/h
    Gusts:
    43km/h
    Humidity:
    82%
    Possible thunderstorm
     
    21°
    Min
    34°
    Max
    Today in Nepean
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the southwest, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E/SE 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 24 with daytime temperatures reaching 31 to 38.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    19°
    Min
    33°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the far southwest in the evening. Winds E/SE 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 25 with daytime temperatures reaching 31 to 40.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the southwest, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E/SE 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 24 with daytime temperatures reaching 31 to 38.

    Forecast for Nepean (30.9677°S, 120.8644°E, 464m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Possible thunderstorm Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Sunny Possible thunderstorm
    Minimum 21° 19° 19° 23° 26° 24° 23°
    Maximum 34° 33° 35° 41° 40° 40° 38°
    Chance of rain 30% 20% 5% 5% 20% 5% 5%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 15
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    Wind direction E ESE ESE ESE E ENE NE NE NE WNW SE SE SE SSE
    Relative humidity 56% 32% 63% 34% 55% 28% 32% 18% 17% 14% 36% 18% 41% 21%
    Dew point 16°C 15°C 16°C 15°C 14°C 14°C 11°C 12°C 4°C 8°C 13°C 12°C 15°C 12°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Nepean Rain Forecast


    Nepean 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    28
    29
    Mar 1
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Feb24

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 March to 11 March, 15 March to 19 March, and 19 March to 23 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 March to 8 March, and 8 March to 12 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 March to 6 March, 7 March to 11 March, and 15 March to 19 March.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Nepean Rain Forecast


    Nepean 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    2020
    2021
    3
    6
    7
    6
    6
    7
    7
    3
    8
    7
    8
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Feb 12

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout January with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 as per December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 1.3 in January. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, cooling even further by mid 2020. Six out of eight international models continue to maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of the year, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, which is what you will expect for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values until the austral winter, with indications we could see another positive event late winter/spring. However, the skill of the models is low at this time of the year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours average-to-below average rainfall for parts of inland NSW and Qld for the end of summer and autumn. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) had its latest onset on record in early February at Darwin (by its technical definition) with the current prognosis suggesting another below average wet season for northern Australia. The northern half of the country however, could see a wet end to the wet season compared to the season thus far. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Nepean Rain Forecast


    Nepean 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    28
    29
    Mar 1
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Feb24

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 March to 11 March, 15 March to 19 March, and 19 March to 23 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 March to 8 March, and 8 March to 12 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 March to 6 March, 7 March to 11 March, and 15 March to 19 March.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Nepean Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Feb 20
    16.6 °C 28.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Feb 21
    15.3 °C 29.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Feb 22
    20.4 °C 32.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Feb 23
    19.4 °C 34.2 °C
    2.8 mm
    Monday
    Feb 24
    19.9 °C 32 °C
    20.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Nepean minimum temp history (30.9677°S, 120.8644°E, 464m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 41.1° 15/02/2020 Coldest this month 14.5° 18/02/2020
    Hottest on record 44.9 17/02/2013 Coldest on record 8.5 16/02/1990
    Hottest this year 44.8° 29/01/2020 Coldest this year 12.6° 04/01/2020
    Long term average 32.1° Long term average 17.9°
    Average this month 32.2° Average this month 18.7°
    Hottest February On Record Avg. max. temp. 37.0° 2007 Coldest February on record Avg. min. temp. 14.8° 1946
    Nepean rainfall history (30.9677°S, 120.8644°E, 464m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 15.4mm 11/02/2020 Total This Month 21.8mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 31.0mm 4.4 days Wettest February on record 307.8mm 1948
    Driest on record 0.0mm 1940
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for WA

  16. Year to Date

    Nepean Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Feb 58.7mm 8.2 day(s)
    Total For 2020 40.4mm 9.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 15.2mm 6.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 15.4mm Feb11
    Lowest Temperature 12.6°C Jan 4
    Highest Temperature 44.8°C Jan29
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Nepean Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 33.7 32.1 29.4 25.2 20.7 17.5 16.8 18.7 22.3 25.9 29.1 32.0 25.2
    Mean Min (°C) 18.3 17.9 16.1 12.7 8.7 6.2 5.0 5.7 8.0 11.2 14.2 16.6 11.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 27.7 31.0 27.6 20.8 25.6 28.0 25.3 21.7 14.3 15.3 18.4 17.4 273.0
    Mean Rain Days 3.8 4.4 4.5 5.3 7.1 9.2 9.5 7.5 5.5 4.3 4.0 3.8 68.1