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Forecast

Nalyerlup (34.1578°S, 118.4°E, 294m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 14° 28°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    4:51am WST 5:17am WST 6:25pm WST 6:51pm WST
    NOW
    18.3° Feels Like: 16.4°
    Relative Humidity: 67%
    Dew: 12.1°
    Wind: E 13km/h
    Gust: 18km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1020.7hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Nalyerlup
    Now
    19.5°c
    Feels Like:
    17.7°
    Wind:
    ENE 11km/h
    Gusts:
    18km/h
    Humidity:
    58%
    Mostly sunny
     
    14°
    Min
    28°
    Max
    Today in Nalyerlup
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the west during the morning and afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Light winds becoming NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 23 to 28.
    Tomorrow
    Late shower
    14°
    Min
    25°
    Max
    Mostly sunny morning. Medium chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming W/NW 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning then tending W/SW in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to around 11 with daytime temperatures reaching 21 to 27.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Nalyerlup

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the west during the morning and afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Light winds becoming NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 23 to 28.

    Forecast for Nalyerlup (34.1578°S, 118.4°E, 294m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Mostly sunny Late shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Clearing shower
    Minimum 14° 14° 11° 12° 14° 16°
    Maximum 28° 25° 21° 23° 27° 34° 23°
    Chance of rain 30% 80% 5% 5% 5% 40% 40%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 7
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    Wind direction ESE WNW W W WSW WSW WSW SW NE NE NNE NNW SSW SSW
    Relative humidity 64% 32% 56% 47% 55% 36% 58% 37% 60% 28% 41% 22% 66% 42%
    Dew point 14°C 10°C 11°C 12°C 7°C 6°C 8°C 8°C 11°C 8°C 11°C 9°C 13°C 9°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Nalyerlup Rain Forecast


    Nalyerlup 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    26
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    30
    31
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 November to 6 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 November to 20 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 November to 5 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 19 November to 23 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Nalyerlup Rain Forecast


    Nalyerlup 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    7
    6
    7
    7
    8
    8
    6
    3
    3
    5
    5
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Nalyerlup Rain Forecast


    Nalyerlup 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    26
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    30
    31
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 November to 6 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 November to 20 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 November to 5 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 19 November to 23 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Nalyerlup Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Wednesday
    Oct 16
    6.3 °C 18.9 °C
    0.8 mm
    Thursday
    Oct 17
    3.0 °C 22.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Oct 18
    4.0 °C 20.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Oct 19
    5.5 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Oct 20
    - -
    -
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Nalyerlup minimum temp history (34.1578°S, 118.4°E, 294m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 29.4° 10/10/2019 Coldest this month 3.0° 17/10/2019
    Hottest on record 36.3 31/10/1981 Coldest on record -0.8 06/10/1980
    Hottest this year 42.5° 21/01/2019 Coldest this year -1.5° 05/09/2019
    Long term average 21.2° Long term average 8.1°
    Average this month 23.6° Average this month 7.7°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.9° 2015 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 5.8° 1986
    Nalyerlup rainfall history (34.1578°S, 118.4°E, 294m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 19.6mm 05/10/2019 Total This Month 35.3mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 33.1mm 9.2 days Wettest October on record 96.8mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Nalyerlup Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 341.3mm 96.8 day(s)
    Total For 2019 290.9mm 95.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 253.0mm 114.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 21.5mm Mar 8
    Lowest Temperature -1.5°C Sep 5
    Highest Temperature 42.5°C Jan21
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Nalyerlup Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.7 28.0 26.0 22.7 18.9 16.0 15.0 15.8 17.9 21.2 24.5 27.1 21.8
    Mean Min (°C) 13.9 14.4 13.3 11.2 8.6 6.7 5.8 5.8 6.5 8.1 10.6 12.4 9.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 19.0 19.3 22.4 26.0 43.2 48.2 49.0 42.9 38.2 33.1 25.7 17.7 384.4
    Mean Rain Days 3.6 4.0 5.1 7.2 11.5 14.4 15.3 14.3 12.2 9.2 6.2 4.1 106.1