Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Exmouth Gulf Coast, Gascoyne Coast and Coastal Central West - North fire weather districts
Issued at 03:58 PM WST on Thursday 28 January 2021
Weather Situation
Very hot conditions, with a fresh to strong and gusty sea breeze developing about the northern west coast.
For Friday 29 January:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Exmouth Gulf Coast, Gascoyne Coast and Coastal Central West - North
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.dfes.wa.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am WST Friday.
Forecast
Marble Bar (21.1714°S, 119.7439°E, 173m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY25° 43° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:17am WST 5:41am WST 6:47pm WST 7:11pm WST NOW43.0° Feels Like: 40.5° Relative Humidity: 9% Dew: 3.3° Wind: N 6km/h Gust: 6km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Marble BarNow41.2°cFeels Like:36.8°Wind:S 13km/hGusts:17km/hHumidity:8%25°Min43°MaxToday in Marble BarMostly clear. The chance of a thunderstorm in the NE. Winds SE/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.Tomorrow25°Min41°MaxVery hot and mostly sunny. Medium chance of showers in the E. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending SE/SW before dawn then tending NE/SE 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to the mid to high 20s with daytime temperatures reaching 37 to 45. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly clear. The chance of a thunderstorm in the NE. Winds SE/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.
Forecast for Marble Bar (21.1714°S, 119.7439°E, 173m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 25° 25° 26° 25° 26° 23° 24° Maximum 43° 41° 35° 33° 31° 30° 31° Chance of rain 5% 50% 80% 70% 80% 90% 90% Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 10-20mm 10-20mm 20-40mm 10-20mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 11
(km/h)11
(km/h)7
(km/h)9
(km/h)19
(km/h)18
(km/h)28
(km/h)29
(km/h)40
(km/h)39
(km/h)40
(km/h)36
(km/h)29
(km/h)30
(km/h)Wind direction SSE NNE NNE ENE SE SE SSE SE ESE E E ENE NE NNE Relative humidity 23% 8% 51% 23% 60% 45% 61% 52% 66% 58% 73% 69% 75% 68% Dew point 11°C 3°C 21°C 15°C 22°C 20°C 22°C 21°C 23°C 21°C 22°C 22°C 24°C 24°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Marble Bar Rain Forecast
Marble Bar 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMFeb 1
HIGH2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
11
12
LOW13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Marble Bar Rain Forecast
Marble Bar 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2021878888889979105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Marble Bar Rain Forecast
Marble Bar 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMFeb 1
HIGH2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
11
12
LOW13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Marble Bar Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Jan 2424.0 °C 42.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2528.8 °C 41.6 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 2625.3 °C 43.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Jan 2725.4 °C 44.1 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Jan 2824.3 °C 44.1 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Marble Bar minimum temp history (21.1714°S, 119.7439°E, 173m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 46.0° 14/01/2021 Coldest this month 22.1° 06/01/2021 Hottest on record 49.0 23/01/2015 Coldest on record 19.7 05/01/2007 Hottest this year 46.0° 14/01/2021 Coldest this year 22.1° 06/01/2021 Long term average 40.8° Long term average 26.5° Average this month 41.5° Average this month 26.8° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 44.6° 2005 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 24.8° 2012 Marble Bar rainfall history (21.1714°S, 119.7439°E, 173m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 3.0mm 05/01/2021 Total This Month 4.8mm
4.0 daysLong Term Average 109.1mm 10.0 days Wettest January on record 330.0mm 2014 Driest on record 1.4mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
- Broadmeadows
- Broome
- Cairns
- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
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Year to Date
Marble Bar Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 109.1mm 10.0 day(s) Total For 2021 4.8mm 4.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 311.6mm 10.0 day(s) Wettest Day 3.0mm Jan 5 Lowest Temperature 22.1°C Jan 6 Highest Temperature 46.0°C Jan14 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Marble Bar Climatology
Marble Bar Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 40.8 39.9 38.4 36.4 31.1 27.3 27.7 30.3 34.7 38.9 40.8 41.9 35.6 Mean Min (°C) 26.5 26.1 25.2 22.2 17.0 13.4 12.3 13.1 16.8 21.8 24.0 26.2 20.2 Mean Rain (mm) 109.1 75.1 95.8 20.6 12.5 23.5 14.9 0.7 3.9 3.3 10.8 38.9 389.9 Mean Rain Days 10.0 8.9 7.0 2.5 2.5 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 2.4 4.4 42.8