Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Fire Weather Warning
for Central Wheat Belt, Gascoyne, Inland Central West, Lower West (including Perth), Ashburton Inland, Goldfields, Nelson, Upper Great Southern and Roe fire weather districts
Issued at 12:34 AM WST on Friday 06 December 2019
Weather Situation
Very hot and dry on Friday. Fresh and gusty east to northeasterly winds during the morning over southern parts of the State and tending northwesterly over the Pilbara and Inland Gascoyne in the afternoon. A fresh and gusty west to southwesterly change extending over western parts of the State during the afternoon and evening.
For the rest of Friday 06 December:
Extreme Fire Danger for the following areas:
Gascoyne Inland and Inland Central West - North
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Central Wheat Belt, Lower West (including Perth), Ashburton Inland, Gascoyne Coast, Goldfields, Inland Central West - South, Nelson, Upper Great Southern and Roe
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.dfes.wa.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Lesley (32.1434°S, 116.1864°E, 238m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TODAY23° 40° Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:34am WST 5:02am WST 7:11pm WST 7:39pm WST NOW23.8° Feels Like: 14.3° Relative Humidity: 40% Dew: 9.7° Wind: E 48km/h Gust: 59km/h Rainfall since 9am: Pressure: -
Today Weather
LesleyNow26.1°cFeels Like:20.7°Wind:ESE 28km/hGusts:32km/hHumidity:37%23°Min40°MaxToday in LesleyVery hot. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or gusty thunderstorm in the far east in the afternoon and early evening. Winds E/NE 25 to 40 km/h shifting W 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching the low 40s.Tomorrow17°Min26°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere. Winds N/NW 15 to 20 km/h turning W/SW 25 to 35 km/h in the late morning and early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 24 to 29. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
-
7 day forecast
Today: Very hot. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or gusty thunderstorm in the far east in the afternoon and early evening. Winds E/NE 25 to 40 km/h shifting W 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching the low 40s.
Forecast for Lesley (32.1434°S, 116.1864°E, 238m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 23° 17° 14° 14° 17° 17° 19° Maximum 40° 26° 26° 32° 36° 38° 39° Chance of rain 20% 80% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 25
(km/h)24
(km/h)21
(km/h)28
(km/h)12
(km/h)20
(km/h)15
(km/h)12
(km/h)19
(km/h)11
(km/h)23
(km/h)13
(km/h)24
(km/h)11
(km/h)Wind direction ENE WNW WNW W SW SW ESE SSW E SSE ESE SE E E Relative humidity 29% 24% 61% 65% 56% 38% 45% 23% 32% 15% 30% 15% 34% 14% Dew point 12°C 12°C 17°C 16°C 12°C 10°C 10°C 8°C 8°C 6°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Lesley Rain Forecast
Lesley 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
LOW7
HIGH8
LOW9
10
11
12
LOW13
14
15
16
MEDIUM17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
LOW28
LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Lesley Rain Forecast
Lesley 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2019202047855644593105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
-
Long range rainfall forecast
Lesley Rain Forecast
Lesley 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
LOW7
HIGH8
LOW9
10
11
12
LOW13
14
15
16
MEDIUM17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
LOW28
LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
LOW2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Past 5 Days
Lesley Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Dec 019.6 °C 30.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0215.2 °C 32.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 0319.2 °C 37.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0422.3 °C 36.7 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0518.7 °C 38 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Lesley minimum temp history (32.1434°S, 116.1864°E, 238m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 37.7° 03/12/2019 Coldest this month 9.6° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 41.0 20/12/2002 Coldest on record 5.0 02/12/2002 Hottest this year 40.4° 20/01/2019 Coldest this year 2.4° 05/09/2019 Long term average 28.0° Long term average 13.6° Average this month 34.4° Average this month 16.6° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.3° 2009 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 11.2° 2005 Lesley rainfall history (32.1434°S, 116.1864°E, 238m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 14.0mm 3.6 days Wettest December on record 41.0mm 2009 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for WA
-
Year to Date
Lesley Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1103.7mm 112.9 day(s) Total For 2019 949.4mm 102.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 1270.0mm 136.0 day(s) Wettest Day 59.6mm Jun23 Lowest Temperature 2.4°C Sep 5 Highest Temperature 40.4°C Jan20 -
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Lesley Climatology
Lesley Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.6 30.6 28.0 23.6 19.3 16.1 15.1 16.0 17.5 21.2 25.0 28.0 22.6 Mean Min (°C) 15.4 15.8 14.6 12.7 10.2 8.1 7.1 7.6 8.2 9.7 11.9 13.6 11.3 Mean Rain (mm) 18.9 21.0 26.6 56.1 132.6 201.0 219.9 173.4 131.5 65.8 42.9 14.0 1104.1 Mean Rain Days 2.7 2.7 4.0 7.3 12.6 16.5 17.7 16.4 13.6 9.2 6.6 3.6 110.7