Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Cancellation Severe Weather Warning
for Lower West, South West, South Coastal and Great Southern districts.
Issued at 4:59 pm Friday, 29 May 2020.
cancellation severe weather warning for the following areas:
Lower West, South West, South Coastal and Great Southern
Severe weather is no longer occurring in WA.
The immediate threat of severe weather has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.
Despite the cancellation of the Severe Weather Warning, tides remain higher than normal along the lower west coast and large swells will continue into Saturday about coastal waters. For more information, see the coastal waters forecasts: http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/map.shtml
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Keep away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
* Be careful of fallen trees, damaged buildings and debris.
* Be careful of fallen power lines. They are dangerous and should always be treated as live.;
* Assess your home, car and property for damage.;
* If damage has occurred take photos and contact your insurance company to organise permanent repairs.
* If your home or property has significant damage, like a badly damaged roof or flooding, call the SES on 132 500.
No further warnings will be issued for this event.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Department of Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Jerramungup (33.9412°S, 118.9218°E, 292m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
11° 19° possible shower Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:31am WST 6:58am WST 5:03pm WST 5:31pm WST NOW11.6° Feels Like: 7.3° Relative Humidity: 90% Dew: 10.0° Wind: WNW 22km/h Gust: 35km/h Rainfall since 9am: 3.0mm Pressure: 1006.1hPa -
Today Weather
JerramungupNow13.4°cFeels Like:8.4°Wind:WNW 26km/hGusts:39km/hHumidity:80%
11°Min19°MaxToday in JerramungupCloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and early evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Possible hail in the west during this evening. Damaging winds possible during this afternoon and early evening. Winds NW 30 to 35 km/h increasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the morning then tending W 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 16 and 21.Tomorrow
5°Min14°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the west, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the south in the early morning. Gusty winds and possible hail. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h tending NW in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 7 with daytime temperatures reaching around 16. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and early evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Possible hail in the west during this evening. Damaging winds possible during this afternoon and early evening. Winds NW 30 to 35 km/h increasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the morning then tending W 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 16 and 21.
Forecast for Jerramungup (33.9412°S, 118.9218°E, 292m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary 
Minimum 11° 5° 8° 6° 7° 8° 8° Maximum 19° 14° 18° 18° 19° 19° 22° Chance of rain 80% 50% 40% 10% 10% 10% 10% Likely amount 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Low Low Low Low Low - - Frost risk Nil Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 32
(km/h)35
(km/h)23
(km/h)25
(km/h)24
(km/h)19
(km/h)10
(km/h)4
(km/h)13
(km/h)12
(km/h)20
(km/h)14
(km/h)11
(km/h)9
(km/h)Wind direction NNW WNW W W W SW WNW N NE NE NNE N NNE WNW Relative humidity 82% 63% 72% 53% 84% 62% 89% 59% 79% 50% 67% 51% 68% 45% Dew point 11°C 9°C 5°C 4°C 11°C 9°C 10°C 8°C 9°C 7°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Jerramungup Rain Forecast
Jerramungup 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJun 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
LOW8
9
10
MEDIUM11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
15
16
17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
MEDIUM21
MEDIUM22
MEDIUM23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May29Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 June to 24 June, 25 June to 29 June, and 29 June to 3 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 June to 12 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 June to 12 June, 20 June to 24 June, and 29 June to 3 July.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Jerramungup Rain Forecast
Jerramungup 12-month Rainfall ForecastMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr20202021775766789675105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued May 13
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout April with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.5. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -0.5 during the same month. The current outlook suggests slightly warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the end of autumn and early winter, potentially cooling by the second half of the austral winter. Eight out of eight international models continue to suggest a cooling trend of the NINO3.4 region throughout the Austral winter, with all models on the cooler side of neutral by September. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggests a 40:35 chance for neutral:La Nina conditions by the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. All six main international models, however, continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing from mid-to-late winter. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current medium term outlook continues to favour above average rainfall for most of the country. This outlook is mainly driven by warmer SSTs across northwestern Australia, enhanced soil moisture across some parts of the continent and early indications of a cool phase in the Pacific Ocean, which increases the moisture content across the northern tropics. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania the outlook is for average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tasmania) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This doesn’t include any severe weather events like east coast lows.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Jerramungup Rain Forecast
Jerramungup 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJun 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
LOW8
9
10
MEDIUM11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
15
16
17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
LOW20
MEDIUM21
MEDIUM22
MEDIUM23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued May29Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 June to 24 June, 25 June to 29 June, and 29 June to 3 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 June to 12 June, and 17 June to 21 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 June to 12 June, 20 June to 24 June, and 29 June to 3 July.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Jerramungup Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
May 259.4 °C 16.3 °C 8.0 mmTuesday
May 265.5 °C 16.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
May 277.8 °C 17.8 °C 0.0 mmThursday
May 2810.8 °C 19.3 °C 0.0 mmFriday
May 2912.0 °C 19.6 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Jerramungup minimum temp history (33.9412°S, 118.9218°E, 292m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 28.5° 03/05/2020 Coldest this month 4.0° 10/05/2020 Hottest on record 31.6 02/05/2002 Coldest on record 1.2 29/05/2015 Hottest this year 43.4° 28/01/2020 Coldest this year 3.2° 04/01/2020 Long term average 19.7° Long term average 8.4° Average this month 20.1° Average this month 7.5° Hottest May On Record Avg. max. temp. 22.0° 2002 Coldest May on record Avg. min. temp. 6.6° 2015 Jerramungup rainfall history (33.9412°S, 118.9218°E, 292m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 23.2mm 05/05/2020 Total This Month 40.2mm
10.0 daysLong Term Average 34.3mm 12.3 days Wettest May on record 74.6mm 2005 Driest on record 10.2mm 2009 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for WA
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Year to Date
Jerramungup Year To Date
Average Rainfall To May 169.7mm 44.8 day(s) Total For 2020 134.0mm 47.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2019 107.8mm 31.0 day(s) Wettest Day 23.2mm May 5 Lowest Temperature 3.2°C Jan 4 Highest Temperature 43.4°C Jan28 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Jerramungup Climatology
Jerramungup Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.9 27.4 25.8 22.9 19.7 16.7 15.6 16.8 18.8 21.9 24.8 26.2 22.1 Mean Min (°C) 13.2 13.7 12.6 10.8 8.4 6.5 5.6 5.7 6.2 7.7 9.9 11.5 9.3 Mean Rain (mm) 34.8 22.2 36.0 42.4 34.3 45.6 51.0 50.8 46.2 41.7 32.8 32.5 471.0 Mean Rain Days 7.0 6.1 8.5 10.9 12.3 16.0 18.3 18.3 15.2 11.1 8.6 7.2 133.1
