Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Damaging Winds, Large Hailstones And Heavy Rainfall
for South West, Great Southern and parts of Goldfields, Lower West, South Coastal, South East Coastal and Central Wheat Belt districts.
Issued at 7:02 am Thursday, 4 March 2021.
Severe thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall, with a chance of damaging winds and large hailstones.
Weather Situation
At 6:40 am WST radar and satellite imagery showed areas of active thunderstorms across the South West Capes and in the western Great Southern district, moving south.
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL for the following areas:
Goldfields, Lower West, South West, South Coastal, South East Coastal, Great Southern and Central Wheat Belt
Throughout the warning area severe thunderstorms are likely to produce HEAVY RAINFALL that may lead to DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING, whilst thunderstorms over central and eastern parts of the warning area may also produce DAMAGING WINDS.
Thunderstorms are likely to redevelop through the remainder of the Great Southern and southern parts of the Central Wheat Belt later this morning or during Thursday afternoon and move south into eastern parts of the South Coastal district and the South East Coastal district, with a risk of DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES from these thunderstorms.
Locations which may be affected include Busselton, Esperance, Kalgoorlie, Katanning, Manjimup, Margaret River, Merredin, Narrogin, Norseman and Northam.
Storms may cause DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY.
Since 9:00 am Wednesday morning the following rainfall totals have been recorded:
- Eneabba: 112mm
- Canterbury: 85.6mm
- Toodyay East: 67.2mm
- Wilyabrup reported 37.4mm in the hour to 6:00am WST Thursday.
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* If outside find safe shelter away from trees, power lines, storm water drains and streams.
* Close your curtains and blinds, and stay inside away from windows.
* Unplug electrical appliances and do not use land line telephones if there is lightning.
* If there is flooding, create your own sandbags by using pillow cases filled with sand and place them around doorways to protect your home.
* If boating, swimming or surfing leave the water.
* Do not drive into water of unknown depth and current.
* Slow down and turn your headlights on.
* Be alert and watch for hazards on the road such as fallen power lines and loose debris.
* If it is raining heavily and you cannot see, pull over and park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears.
The next warning is due to be issued by 10:05 am.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Department of Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Jerramungup (33.9412°S, 118.9218°E, 292m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
17° 26° Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 5:28am WST 5:53am WST 6:37pm WST 7:02pm WST NOW19.2° Feels Like: 19.2° Relative Humidity: 89% Dew: 17.3° Wind: NE 13km/h Gust: 17km/h Rainfall since 9am: 5.8mm Pressure: 1012.2hPa -
Today Weather
JerramungupNow19.6°cFeels Like:19.3°Wind:NE 15km/hGusts:18km/hHumidity:87%
17°Min26°MaxToday in JerramungupPartly cloudy. High chance of showers, becoming less likely during this evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Squally winds, hail and moderate to heavy falls possible with thunderstorms, most likely in the E during this afternoon and early evening. Winds NE 20 to 30 km/h tending N/NE in the middle of the day then tending N/NW and becoming light in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid to high 20s.Tomorrow
16°Min28°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to around 17 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, becoming less likely during this evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Squally winds, hail and moderate to heavy falls possible with thunderstorms, most likely in the E during this afternoon and early evening. Winds NE 20 to 30 km/h tending N/NE in the middle of the day then tending N/NW and becoming light in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid to high 20s.
Forecast for Jerramungup (33.9412°S, 118.9218°E, 292m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary 
Minimum 17° 16° 17° 16° 15° 14° 14° Maximum 26° 28° 26° 23° 23° 25° 27° Chance of rain 80% 70% 50% 60% 60% 20% 40% Likely amount 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 23
(km/h)18
(km/h)14
(km/h)10
(km/h)10
(km/h)15
(km/h)13
(km/h)18
(km/h)17
(km/h)23
(km/h)21
(km/h)21
(km/h)17
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction ENE NNE WNW W SSW SSW SSE SSE ESE ESE E ESE ENE E Relative humidity 85% 74% 75% 58% 81% 71% 84% 74% 83% 73% 76% 59% 68% 51% Dew point 18°C 19°C 17°C 17°C 17°C 18°C 17°C 16°C 15°C 15°C 14°C 14°C 14°C 14°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Jerramungup Rain Forecast
Jerramungup 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
LOW18
19
20
21
LOW22
MEDIUM23
LOW24
LOW25
MEDIUM26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
Apr 1
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Jerramungup Rain Forecast
Jerramungup 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2021202287666764789105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 5
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Jerramungup Rain Forecast
Jerramungup 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
LOW18
19
20
21
LOW22
MEDIUM23
LOW24
LOW25
MEDIUM26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
Apr 1
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Jerramungup Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Feb 2713.5 °C 22.6 °C 0.4 mmSunday
Feb 2813.1 °C 23.2 °C 0.2 mmMonday
Mar 0114.7 °C 21.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 0214.9 °C 23.0 °C 7.8 mmWednesday
Mar 0316.6 °C 23.8 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Jerramungup minimum temp history (33.9412°S, 118.9218°E, 292m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 23.0° 02/03/2021 Coldest this month 14.7° 01/03/2021 Hottest on record 40.4 13/03/2015 Coldest on record 4.0 30/03/1996 Hottest this year 41.1° 09/01/2021 Coldest this year 7.6° 19/02/2021 Long term average 25.7° Long term average 12.6° Average this month 22.0° Average this month 15.4° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.2° 2005 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 11.4° 2004 Jerramungup rainfall history (33.9412°S, 118.9218°E, 292m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 7.8mm 02/03/2021 Total This Month 7.8mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 34.9mm 9.1 days Wettest March on record 107.4mm 2016 Driest on record 4.2mm 2008 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
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- Broome
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- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
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Year to Date
Jerramungup Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 85.5mm 21.8 day(s) Total For 2021 45.0mm 16.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 67.2mm 22.0 day(s) Wettest Day 16.6mm Feb 7 Lowest Temperature 7.6°C Feb19 Highest Temperature 41.1°C Jan 9 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Jerramungup Climatology
Jerramungup Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 28.1 27.5 25.7 23.0 19.7 16.9 15.7 16.8 19.0 22.0 24.8 26.5 22.1 Mean Min (°C) 13.1 13.6 12.6 10.8 8.3 6.5 5.6 5.7 6.3 7.8 9.8 11.5 9.3 Mean Rain (mm) 29.2 21.4 34.9 38.7 33.3 45.3 49.8 52.0 43.8 38.1 30.0 28.2 437.8 Mean Rain Days 6.4 6.3 9.1 10.7 12.8 16.9 18.3 18.9 14.8 11.5 8.7 7.2 139.6
