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Forecast

Jelcobine (32.4069°S, 116.7661°E, 279m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Sunny 17° 39°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light     		Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    4:36am WST 5:03am WST 6:51pm WST 7:19pm WST
    NOW
    31.6° Feels Like: 30.1°
    Relative Humidity: 25%
    Dew: 9.2°
    Wind: SW 7km/h
    Gust: 15km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  

  3. Today Weather

    Jelcobine
    Now
    24.5°c
    Feels Like:
    23.5°
    Wind:
    WNW 13km/h
    Gusts:
    17km/h
    Humidity:
    55%
    Sunny
     
    17°
    Min
    39°
    Max
    Today in Jelcobine
    Very hot and sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h shifting S/SE 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon and evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 35 to 43.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    16°
    Min
    35°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Winds S/SE 15 to 25 km/h tending E/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching 29 to 36.

  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours

  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Very hot and sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h shifting S/SE 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon and evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 35 to 43.

    Forecast for Jelcobine (32.4069°S, 116.7661°E, 279m AMSL)
      Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    Summary Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly cloudy Clearing shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 17° 16° 15° 13° 7° 10° 10°
    Maximum 39° 35° 30° 22° 26° 27° 30°
    Chance of rain 5% 5% 50% 30% 5% 5% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 12
    (km/h)     		24
    (km/h)     		14
    (km/h)     		11
    (km/h)     		7
    (km/h)     		29
    (km/h)     		26
    (km/h)     		26
    (km/h)     		10
    (km/h)     		16
    (km/h)     		16
    (km/h)     		18
    (km/h)     		19
    (km/h)     		12
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W W SE S SW WSW WSW WSW SE W SSW SW ESE SE
    Relative humidity 22% 13% 36% 16% 45% 27% 55% 27% 45% 25% 51% 26% 49% 18%
    Dew point 7°C 6°C 8°C 6°C 11°C 8°C 8°C 3°C 5°C 5°C 8°C 6°C 8°C 4°C

  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Jelcobine Rain Forecast

    Jelcobine 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    Dec 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 November to 3 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 10 December to 14 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Jelcobine Rain Forecast

    Jelcobine 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    4
    6
    8
    6
    5
    6
    6
    3
    5
    5
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Jelcobine Rain Forecast

    Jelcobine 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    Dec 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 November to 3 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 10 December to 14 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Jelcobine Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Wednesday
    Nov 13     		10.6 °C 35.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 14     		16.1 °C 38.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Nov 15     		14.1 °C 37.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Nov 16     		15.4 °C 41 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Nov 17     		14 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend

  14. Almanac

    Almanac

    Jelcobine minimum temp history (32.4069°S, 116.7661°E, 279m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 38.6° 14/11/2019 Coldest this month 4.0° 03/11/2019
    Hottest on record 41.3 23/11/1978 Coldest on record -1.7 01/11/1968
    Hottest this year 43.1° 20/01/2019 Coldest this year -1.0° 20/09/2019
    Long term average 27.6° Long term average 11.0°
    Average this month 29.7° Average this month 10.2°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.6° 2015 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 8.1° 1974
    Jelcobine rainfall history (32.4069°S, 116.7661°E, 279m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 3.1mm 01/11/2019 Total This Month 3.7mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 14.3mm 3.9 days Wettest November on record 58.9mm 2015

  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Jelcobine Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 429.5mm 85.1 day(s)
    Total For 2019 278.7mm 71.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 379.8mm 97.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 25.1mm Jun23
    Lowest Temperature -1.0°C Sep20
    Highest Temperature 43.1°C Jan20

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Jelcobine Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 33.0 32.3 29.4 24.9 20.4 17.2 16.1 16.8 19.1 23.4 27.6 31.0 24.3
    Mean Min (°C) 15.6 16.1 14.4 11.3 7.8 5.6 4.5 4.6 5.4 7.5 11.0 13.6 9.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 12.2 15.2 18.2 25.2 55.5 82.5 83.3 60.8 38.2 24.1 14.3 10.2 437.0
    Mean Rain Days 2.2 2.4 3.1 5.5 9.8 13.3 15.0 13.1 10.0 6.8 3.9 2.5 86.2

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