Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Damaging Winds, Large Hailstones And Heavy Rainfall
for South West, Great Southern and parts of Goldfields, Lower West, South Coastal, South East Coastal and Central Wheat Belt districts.
Issued at 7:02 am Thursday, 4 March 2021.
Severe thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall, with a chance of damaging winds and large hailstones.
Weather Situation
At 6:40 am WST radar and satellite imagery showed areas of active thunderstorms across the South West Capes and in the western Great Southern district, moving south.
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL for the following areas:
Goldfields, Lower West, South West, South Coastal, South East Coastal, Great Southern and Central Wheat Belt
Throughout the warning area severe thunderstorms are likely to produce HEAVY RAINFALL that may lead to DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING, whilst thunderstorms over central and eastern parts of the warning area may also produce DAMAGING WINDS.
Thunderstorms are likely to redevelop through the remainder of the Great Southern and southern parts of the Central Wheat Belt later this morning or during Thursday afternoon and move south into eastern parts of the South Coastal district and the South East Coastal district, with a risk of DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES from these thunderstorms.
Locations which may be affected include Busselton, Esperance, Kalgoorlie, Katanning, Manjimup, Margaret River, Merredin, Narrogin, Norseman and Northam.
Storms may cause DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY.
Since 9:00 am Wednesday morning the following rainfall totals have been recorded:
- Eneabba: 112mm
- Canterbury: 85.6mm
- Toodyay East: 67.2mm
- Wilyabrup reported 37.4mm in the hour to 6:00am WST Thursday.
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* If outside find safe shelter away from trees, power lines, storm water drains and streams.
* Close your curtains and blinds, and stay inside away from windows.
* Unplug electrical appliances and do not use land line telephones if there is lightning.
* If there is flooding, create your own sandbags by using pillow cases filled with sand and place them around doorways to protect your home.
* If boating, swimming or surfing leave the water.
* Do not drive into water of unknown depth and current.
* Slow down and turn your headlights on.
* Be alert and watch for hazards on the road such as fallen power lines and loose debris.
* If it is raining heavily and you cannot see, pull over and park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears.
The next warning is due to be issued by 10:05 am.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Department of Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Jarrahwood (33.7947°S, 115.6633°E, 118m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
20° 25° Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 5:42am WST 6:07am WST 6:50pm WST 7:15pm WST NOW18.0° Feels Like: 16.8° Relative Humidity: 99% Dew: 17.8° Wind: NW 20km/h Gust: 22km/h Rainfall since 9am: 20.6mm Pressure: 1009.2hPa -
Today Weather
JarrahwoodNow20.6°cFeels Like:24.0°Wind:N 0km/hGusts:2km/hHumidity:93%
20°Min25°MaxToday in JarrahwoodPartly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely during the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Moderate to heavy falls possible this morning in the N. Winds NE 15 to 20 km/h shifting W/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the late morning then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid to high 20s.Tomorrow
19°Min25°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to around 18 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely during the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Moderate to heavy falls possible this morning in the N. Winds NE 15 to 20 km/h shifting W/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the late morning then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid to high 20s.
Forecast for Jarrahwood (33.7947°S, 115.6633°E, 118m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary 
Minimum 20° 19° 18° 18° 17° 17° 18° Maximum 25° 25° 27° 27° 27° 29° 30° Chance of rain 80% 50% 40% 30% 10% 10% 10% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 15
(km/h)22
(km/h)11
(km/h)16
(km/h)7
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)14
(km/h)21
(km/h)18
(km/h)23
(km/h)15
(km/h)16
(km/h)13
(km/h)Wind direction NE NNW NW WNW SSW SW SE SE ESE ESE ESE E E E Relative humidity 86% 73% 87% 70% 82% 64% 75% 53% 70% 49% 69% 43% 61% 40% Dew point 21°C 20°C 19°C 19°C 19°C 19°C 17°C 17°C 15°C 16°C 15°C 15°C 14°C 15°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Jarrahwood Rain Forecast
Jarrahwood 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
HIGH6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
9
10
11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
30
LOW31
MEDIUMApr 1
HIGHCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Jarrahwood Rain Forecast
Jarrahwood 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2021202277567673778105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 5
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Jarrahwood Rain Forecast
Jarrahwood 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
HIGH6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
9
10
11
MEDIUM12
LOW13
MEDIUM14
LOW15
16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
20
21
22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
30
LOW31
MEDIUMApr 1
HIGHCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 7 April to 11 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 6 April to 10 April.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Jarrahwood Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Feb 2713.0 °C 29.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Feb 2814.5 °C 26.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 0116.5 °C 21.5 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Mar 0217.0 °C 27.0 °C 0.8 mmWednesday
Mar 0319.5 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Jarrahwood minimum temp history (33.7947°S, 115.6633°E, 118m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 27.0° 02/03/2021 Coldest this month 16.5° 01/03/2021 Hottest on record 41.2 07/03/2007 Coldest on record 1.0 29/03/2007 Hottest this year 39.0° 09/01/2021 Coldest this year 4.0° 19/02/2021 Long term average 27.7° Long term average 11.7° Average this month 24.2° Average this month 17.7° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.6° 2011 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 9.0° 1977 Jarrahwood rainfall history (33.7947°S, 115.6633°E, 118m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.8mm 02/03/2021 Total This Month 0.8mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 21.5mm 5.1 days Wettest March on record 83.0mm 1998 Driest on record 0.0mm 2012 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
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- Brisbane Airport
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Year to Date
Jarrahwood Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 50.4mm 12.4 day(s) Total For 2021 67.2mm 8.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 32.4mm 12.0 day(s) Wettest Day 33.0mm Feb 7 Lowest Temperature 4.0°C Feb19 Highest Temperature 39.0°C Jan 9 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Jarrahwood Climatology
Jarrahwood Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 29.7 29.9 27.7 23.8 20.0 17.4 16.4 16.9 18.3 20.8 24.0 27.2 22.6 Mean Min (°C) 12.7 13.3 11.7 8.8 6.7 5.4 4.8 5.1 6.0 7.4 9.5 11.1 8.5 Mean Rain (mm) 16.5 12.4 21.5 48.3 125.3 157.1 179.2 145.9 103.6 55.7 42.0 17.5 928.5 Mean Rain Days 3.6 3.7 5.1 9.1 14.4 18.4 20.8 19.1 16.5 11.9 8.3 4.8 135.5
